You have to take the box to the store... sounds pathetic.

Downloads are going to take over the home video market, just not yet. Following Moore's Law, average download times will be cut in half every 24 months (through faster connections and more efficient codecs) and eventually reach acceptable areas even for HD content.

hd-dvd had the lead in number of titles out, price, and number of movies sold until 2007. Now, the increased studio support for blu-ray has yielded the available movie crown and number of movies sold crown, and the price gap has dropped. It is still $140 more expensive to buy a stand-alone blu-ray player.

If blu-ray can get within $25 of hd-dvd players there should be no excuse for someone to buy an hd-dvd player anymore. That would be the nail in the coffin. Sony, due to the fact they are mass-producing lasers anyway, should be on this already. I think they are working out their dvd upscaling so the stand-alones can be released and the PS3 patched. That's just my opinion, otherwise why haven't they released 1 already because they shouldn't be depending on blu-ray to sell PS3s...maybe they are waiting for a few more games and Home to be released first, but there are already blu-ray players out that are cheaper. Granted, a recent UK review stated that the PS3 is the best blu-ray player out so far.

Anyway, hd-dvd still enjoys about $140 advantage on the cheapest of both models on amazon.com the last I checked a few days ago ($350 to $490). Those aren't the best players, though, so if Sony gets a great blu-ray player out at $400, I think stand-alones could start to rival hd-dvd stand-alone sales. That would also show that the PS3 is still a great deal, with the Cell, graphics chip, 60GB, wireless connectivity, etc only $200 more than the stand-alone. $400 seems possible considering the reported costs for the PS3 parts.

Are hd-dvd burners out yet? I know blu-ray had those a long time ago but I haven't heard anything on that recently.

Moore's Law is that you can fit twice as many transistors on a silicone chip every 18 months.

Now, I agree that Downloads could take over the marketplace but that is because current technology would allow for HD video on demand if companies would upgrade their infastructure.

VOD must still be years away from achieving anything.

With low transmission bandwidth along with low internet speeds, I cannot see how VOD can be achievable anytime soon.

IMO we will see BluRay, HDDVD or some other disc-based format take over from DVD for the foreseeable future. 

@HappySquirell:

The cable companies don't rely on the internet for transmission. They transfer via their local cable network. The speed can be 100s, sometimes 1000s of times faster than the typical internet connection.

Sorry talking about the UK here....even at that....you could imagine the kind of data transfer required for VOD and we aren't even talking about HD here.

I still believe it to be years from even starting.

Don't forget HD has been on the go for about 10 years now...even before DVD really came on the scene...and thats us just up and running. 

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Disc_Sales/Disc_Sales:_Casino_Royale_Tops_High-Def_Charts_All_Eyes_on_Happy_Feet/539

First of all 100k was rumored to be sold in the first week. If you are talking about 30k being sold on amazon then I don't think you understand what is going on.

 At CES 2007 it was estimated that every PS3 owner purchased at least 6 blu ray films. It would be amazing if Sony made people reluctantly purchase a BR movie..... 6 times over. People are claiming blu rays success after several months of intense sales.... sort of like how many here believe the Wii is going to win. So if by your admission blu ray's future is still in question then you would have to question that of the Wii's.