Well, hopefully.
TIS TEH B3ST SYSTAH EVAH!
(until the 3DS)
| aragod said: Handheld vs home console? Can I add PC as a system also? :) |
Well, ok, you can.
But if you say that, we'll have to say the DS did similar numbers in 4 years less than the PS2 too.
| jarrod said: It's a question of when, not if. And the only thing on the horizon that looks like it may ever surpass DS is 3DS. I now think Wii won't pass PS2 though (but it will definitely pass PS1 and possibly GB). Part of that is that I really think we'll see a Wii successor a year sooner than PS2 did (Q4 2011), and the other half is that I doubt the Wii successor will bellyflop like PS2's did (and thus curtail sales sooner by actually transitioning it's base). |
102.49 million units. That is how many units the PS1 sold by the time it was put to rest in 2005. Almost took 10 full years to get there. Wii will do it in half the time (4.5 years) but I agree that the PS2 is unreachable (no software in Japan to push it, Europe doesn't buy Wii software, Western devs need more power, no blockbusters, etc)
However, I think that a Wii2 won't come until late 2012. I just can't imagine this era not lasting 6 years as opposed to the standard 5, just because of where everyone is at right now. I can imagine the X720 in Nov. 2011, Wii2 in Nov. 2012, and PS4 in early 2013. The motion controllers need time to develop, Dragon Quest X has to come out (so does Zelda), the Vitality Sensor needs time on the market, and I would not expect a Wii2 until maybe 1 full year after the 3DS releases. However, they could announce it next year and release it early 2012, but I figure Ninty wants holiday sales.
Also, I have to see what Donkey Kong and Wii Party do during the holidays before I completely cancel out Wii reaching the PS2 someday. I do not think they are as strong as New Super Mario Bros. though in terms of selling power, even when combined.
Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. " thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."
| SaviorX said: 102.49 million units. That is how many units the PS1 sold by the time it was put to rest in 2005. Almost took 10 full years to get there. Wii will do it in half the time (4.5 years) but I agree that the PS2 is unreachable (no software in Japan to push it, Europe doesn't buy Wii software, Western devs need more power, no blockbusters, etc) However, I think that a Wii2 won't come until late 2012. I just can't imagine this era not lasting 6 years as opposed to the standard 5, just because of where everyone is at right now. I can imagine the X720 in Nov. 2011, Wii2 in Nov. 2012, and PS4 in early 2013. The motion controllers need time to develop, Dragon Quest X has to come out (so does Zelda), the Vitality Sensor needs time on the market, and I would not expect a Wii2 until maybe 1 full year after the 3DS releases. However, they could announce it next year and release it early 2012, but I figure Ninty wants holiday sales. Also, I have to see what Donkey Kong and Wii Party do during the holidays before I completely cancel out Wii reaching the PS2 someday. I do not think they are as strong as New Super Mario Bros. though in terms of selling power, even when combined. |
I kind of suspect a 2011 for Wii2 exactly because Wii's currently in such a strong position. If not, it'll be in spring or summer of 2012, to build up stock before the holiday explosion.
SaviorX said:
102.49 million units. That is how many units the PS1 sold by the time it was put to rest in 2005. Almost took 10 full years to get there. Wii will do it in half the time (4.5 years) but I agree that the PS2 is unreachable (no software in Japan to push it, Europe doesn't buy Wii software, Western devs need more power, no blockbusters, etc) However, I think that a Wii2 won't come until late 2012. I just can't imagine this era not lasting 6 years as opposed to the standard 5, just because of where everyone is at right now. I can imagine the X720 in Nov. 2011, Wii2 in Nov. 2012, and PS4 in early 2013. The motion controllers need time to develop, Dragon Quest X has to come out (so does Zelda), the Vitality Sensor needs time on the market, and I would not expect a Wii2 until maybe 1 full year after the 3DS releases. However, they could announce it next year and release it early 2012, but I figure Ninty wants holiday sales. Also, I have to see what Donkey Kong and Wii Party do during the holidays before I completely cancel out Wii reaching the PS2 someday. I do not think they are as strong as New Super Mario Bros. though in terms of selling power, even when combined. |
Honestly, I don't see Xbox 3 in 2011... Kinect is pretty much their stalling tactic to lengthen the generational cycle (as is Move for PS3) and even if it crashes and burns VB/32X/PSPGo-style, they still wouldn't have enough time to get their next machine together and ready for a launch the following holiday. Honestly, Q4 2012 seems the most likely period for PS4 and XB3 launch, in part because Wii2 in Q4 2011 will help jumpstart the cycle. If MS/Sony could wait longer, they would, but they can't afford to really give Nintendo more than year headstart. And really, even a year will probably ensure neither manages to lead the market.
And I fully expect a 1 year gap between 3DS and Wii2. Q4 2010 3DS, Q4 2011 Wii2. Some regions may get pushed to the next Q1 for each, but they'll both debut somewhere then.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see DQX launch during/after Wii2 (shades of DQVII/PS2, which actually worked out better for the game) and at this point I'm also kind of expecting the Vitality Sensor to be reworked into Wii2 directly instead...
Jarrod, I actually expect closer to a 2 year gap between 3DS and their next home console. Wii doesn't have to be on the market as long as the PS2 to pass it if it continues to sell more in less time. But as for DS surpassing PS2, no question it will. Even with 3DS out, DS will continue to sell double digit millions of units. Much like Wii and its successor. Wii won't just die the moment a new console releases. Especially taking a look at previous market leading consoles.
But again, this is about DS vs PS2, and the only question I have then is when, not if. Because I look at it this way, in which territory will DS NOT outsell PS2? Japan has already been toppled years ago, America? Europe?
Just a matter of time.
Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:
If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.
If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.
Well, a big part of my reasoning for Wii2 at the end of 2011 is Japan. Even if it's their smallest market, Nintendo still makes decisions based first on the home front, and in Japan Wii's basically on life support. It's really past the point of needing a refresh (if that was going to happen, it should have already by now), Japan really needs Wii's successor. And in the west, even though it gets overblown, Wii really is on the backhalf of it's cycle too, and publisher support for the most part has already dropped out besides shovelware.
Strategically, if they can get everyone on board day one 3DS style (which, coming off this gen strong they'll actually have the leverage to do this time), I think they'd be in great position to hit the ground running and ensure market leadership for the next cycle. A big part of Wii's 3rd party problem was that no one expected it to lead (Nintendo included actually) and as such everyone sunk to much into 360 and PS3 R&D to just switch gears mid-stream. Wii 2 won't have that problem, it's going to be the assumed market leader going in, and as such will likely get a far, far better upfront priority from developers and publishers.
Another good indicator imo is EAD. For Wii, they basically only have one confirmed game next year, everything else is 3DS. This tells me Wii likely only has another year or so in the limelight, and you can probably expect any other EAD games to be shifted to 3DS or Wii 2 (similar to how GameCube "lost" Twilight Princess and Nintendogs). Get ready for Pikmin 3DS. ;)
My prediction is a Wii 2 unveiling at E3 2011, details as Gamescon/TGS 2011, release in Q4 2011/Q1 2012 worldwide.
| jarrod said: Well, a big part of my reasoning for Wii2 at the end of 2011 is Japan. Even if it's their smallest market, Nintendo still makes decisions based first on the home front, and in Japan Wii's basically on life support. It's really past the point of needing a refresh (if that was going to happen, it should have already by now), Japan really needs Wii's successor. And in the west, even though it gets overblown, Wii really is on the backhalf of it's cycle too, and publisher support for the most part has already dropped out besides shovelware. Strategically, if they can get everyone on board day one 3DS style (which, coming off this gen strong they'll actually have the leverage to do this time), I think they'd be in great position to hit the ground running and ensure market leadership for the next cycle. A big part of Wii's 3rd party problem was that no one expected it to lead (Nintendo included actually) and as such everyone sunk to much into 360 and PS3 R&D to just switch gears mid-stream. Wii 2 won't have that problem, it's going to be the assumed market leader going in, and as such will likely get a far, far better upfront priority from developers and publishers. Another good indicator imo is EAD. For Wii, they basically only have one confirmed game next year, everything else is 3DS. This tells me Wii likely only has another year or so in the limelight, and you can probably expect any other EAD games to be shifted to 3DS or Wii 2 (similar to how GameCube "lost" Twilight Princess and Nintendogs). Get ready for Pikmin 3DS. ;) My prediction is a Wii 2 unveiling at E3 2011, details as Gamescon/TGS 2011, release in Q4 2011/Q1 2012 worldwide. |
Sounds good. The most integral part to the Wii2's success is that initial support. A head start is what is ensuring the 3DS is already a success before launch, and the same thing could apply even more so here.
E3 2010 was a Nintendo software blowout; unless its all new IPS from here on out, they don't have much left. People are probably already working on titles for the next console as we speak. Lightning doesn't strike twice, so I doubt 3rd parties would make the mistake of not supporting this one.
Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. " thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."
| jarrod said: Well, a big part of my reasoning for Wii2 at the end of 2011 is Japan. Even if it's their smallest market, Nintendo still makes decisions based first on the home front, and in Japan Wii's basically on life support. It's really past the point of needing a refresh (if that was going to happen, it should have already by now), Japan really needs Wii's successor. And in the west, even though it gets overblown, Wii really is on the backhalf of it's cycle too, and publisher support for the most part has already dropped out besides shovelware. Strategically, if they can get everyone on board day one 3DS style (which, coming off this gen strong they'll actually have the leverage to do this time), I think they'd be in great position to hit the ground running and ensure market leadership for the next cycle. A big part of Wii's 3rd party problem was that no one expected it to lead (Nintendo included actually) and as such everyone sunk to much into 360 and PS3 R&D to just switch gears mid-stream. Wii 2 won't have that problem, it's going to be the assumed market leader going in, and as such will likely get a far, far better upfront priority from developers and publishers. Another good indicator imo is EAD. For Wii, they basically only have one confirmed game next year, everything else is 3DS. This tells me Wii likely only has another year or so in the limelight, and you can probably expect any other EAD games to be shifted to 3DS or Wii 2 (similar to how GameCube "lost" Twilight Princess and Nintendogs). Get ready for Pikmin 3DS. ;) My prediction is a Wii 2 unveiling at E3 2011, details as Gamescon/TGS 2011, release in Q4 2011/Q1 2012 worldwide. |
I'm with Jarrod here, it's obvious the Wii is somewhat losing momentum. It would be unwise for Nintendo to wait untill it really loses momentum. They have to carry it over to there next console.
Nintendo typically releases a console...and drops the old one, so i'm assuming that the DS will Not pass the Ps2 in sales...but even so, it's a handheld
Just waiting for that PS Vita to come out so I can play some full featured games on the go with that beautiful screen and control scheme...
About Us |
Terms of Use |
Privacy Policy |
Advertise |
Staff |
Contact
Display As Desktop
Display As Mobile
© 2006-2026 VGChartz Ltd. All rights reserved.
