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jarrod on 18 June 2010
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SaviorX said:
jarrod said:

It's a question of when, not if.  And the only thing on the horizon that looks like it may ever surpass DS is 3DS.

I now think Wii won't pass PS2 though (but it will definitely pass PS1 and possibly GB).  Part of that is that I really think we'll see a Wii successor a year sooner than PS2 did (Q4 2011), and the other half is that I doubt the Wii successor will bellyflop like PS2's did (and thus curtail sales sooner by actually transitioning it's base).

102.49 million units. That is how many units the PS1 sold by the time it was put to rest in 2005. Almost took 10 full years to get there. Wii will do it in half the time (4.5 years) but I agree that the PS2 is unreachable (no software in Japan to push it, Europe doesn't buy Wii software, Western devs need more power, no blockbusters, etc)

However, I think that a Wii2 won't come until late 2012. I just can't imagine this era not lasting 6 years as opposed to the standard 5, just because of where everyone is at right now. I can imagine the X720 in Nov. 2011, Wii2 in Nov. 2012, and PS4 in early 2013. The motion controllers need time to develop, Dragon Quest X has to come out (so does Zelda), the Vitality Sensor needs time on the market, and I would not expect a Wii2 until maybe 1 full year after the 3DS releases. However, they could announce it next year and release it early 2012, but I figure Ninty wants holiday sales.

Also, I have to see what Donkey Kong and Wii Party do during the holidays before I completely cancel out Wii reaching the PS2 someday. I do not think they are as strong as New Super Mario Bros. though in terms of selling power, even when combined.

Honestly, I don't see Xbox 3 in 2011... Kinect is pretty much their stalling tactic to lengthen the generational cycle (as is Move for PS3) and even if it crashes and burns VB/32X/PSPGo-style, they still wouldn't have enough time to get their next machine together and ready for a launch the following holiday.  Honestly, Q4 2012 seems the most likely period for PS4 and XB3 launch, in part because Wii2 in Q4 2011 will help jumpstart the cycle.  If MS/Sony could wait longer, they would, but they can't afford to really give Nintendo more than year headstart.  And really, even a year will probably ensure neither manages to lead the market.

And I fully expect a 1 year gap between 3DS and Wii2.  Q4 2010 3DS, Q4 2011 Wii2.  Some regions may get pushed to the next Q1 for each, but they'll both debut somewhere then.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see DQX launch during/after Wii2 (shades of DQVII/PS2, which actually worked out better for the game) and at this point I'm also kind of expecting the Vitality Sensor to be reworked into Wii2 directly instead...