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Forums - Sales - Will Nintendo DS still overtake PS2 as best selling system of all time?

jarrod on 18 June 2010
SaviorX said:
jarrod said:

Well, a big part of my reasoning for Wii2 at the end of 2011 is Japan.  Even if it's their smallest market, Nintendo still makes decisions based first on the home front, and in Japan Wii's basically on life support.  It's really past the point of needing a refresh (if that was going to happen, it should have already by now), Japan really needs Wii's successor.  And in the west, even though it gets overblown, Wii really is on the backhalf of it's cycle too, and publisher support for the most part has already dropped out besides shovelware.  

Strategically, if they can get everyone on board day one 3DS style (which, coming off this gen strong they'll actually have the leverage to do this time), I think they'd be in great position to hit the ground running and ensure market leadership for the next cycle.  A big part of Wii's 3rd party problem was that no one expected it to lead (Nintendo included actually) and as such everyone sunk to much into 360 and PS3 R&D to just switch gears mid-stream.  Wii 2 won't have that problem, it's going to be the assumed market leader going in, and as such will likely get a far, far better upfront priority from developers and publishers.

Another good indicator imo is EAD.  For Wii, they basically only have one confirmed game next year, everything else is 3DS.  This tells me Wii likely only has another year or so in the limelight, and you can probably expect any other EAD games to be shifted to 3DS or Wii 2 (similar to how GameCube "lost" Twilight Princess and Nintendogs).  Get ready for Pikmin 3DS. ;)

My prediction is a Wii 2 unveiling at E3 2011, details as Gamescon/TGS 2011, release in Q4 2011/Q1 2012 worldwide.

Sounds good. The most integral part to the Wii2's success is that initial support. A head start is what is ensuring the 3DS is already a success before launch, and the same thing could apply even more so here.

E3 2010 was a Nintendo software blowout; unless its all new IPS from here on out, they don't have much left. People are probably already working on titles for the next console as we speak. Lightning doesn't strike twice, so I doubt 3rd parties would make the mistake of not supporting this one.

Yes, exactly.  Publishers and developers definitely feel "left out" of the Wii success largely, and that's an opportunity they're not going to let just slip by next time.   I very much feel Wii2 will take a 3DS approach to it's launch, making big AAA 3rd party brands a centerpiece (and often not the sort one would associate with Nintendo platforms) and much more "hardcore" focus.  There's no doubt in my mind that Wii2 games are being worked on right now either.

Really, it's almost like how Sony handled PS2.



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jarrod on 18 June 2010
Vanbierk said:

Nintendo typically releases a console...and drops the old one, so i'm assuming that the DS will Not pass the Ps2 in sales...but even so, it's a handheld

GBA did almost 30% of it's sales after DS launched.  DS will fly past PS2 within months from now, and lifetime it will boast a lead over it measured in the tens of millions.  This isn't projection, it's inevitability.



jarrod on 18 June 2010
SleepWaking said:
jarrod said:

Well, a big part of my reasoning for Wii2 at the end of 2011 is Japan.  Even if it's their smallest market, Nintendo still makes decisions based first on the home front, and in Japan Wii's basically on life support.  It's really past the point of needing a refresh (if that was going to happen, it should have already by now), Japan really needs Wii's successor.  And in the west, even though it gets overblown, Wii really is on the backhalf of it's cycle too, and publisher support for the most part has already dropped out besides shovelware.  

Strategically, if they can get everyone on board day one 3DS style (which, coming off this gen strong they'll actually have the leverage to do this time), I think they'd be in great position to hit the ground running and ensure market leadership for the next cycle.  A big part of Wii's 3rd party problem was that no one expected it to lead (Nintendo included actually) and as such everyone sunk to much into 360 and PS3 R&D to just switch gears mid-stream.  Wii 2 won't have that problem, it's going to be the assumed market leader going in, and as such will likely get a far, far better upfront priority from developers and publishers.

Another good indicator imo is EAD.  For Wii, they basically only have one confirmed game next year, everything else is 3DS.  This tells me Wii likely only has another year or so in the limelight, and you can probably expect any other EAD games to be shifted to 3DS or Wii 2 (similar to how GameCube "lost" Twilight Princess and Nintendogs).  Get ready for Pikmin 3DS. ;)

My prediction is a Wii 2 unveiling at E3 2011, details as Gamescon/TGS 2011, release in Q4 2011/Q1 2012 worldwide.

I'm with Jarrod here, it's obvious the Wii is somewhat losing momentum. It would be unwise for Nintendo to wait untill it really loses momentum. They have to carry it over to there next console.

Yeah, totally agreed.  Nintendo will want to strike while the iron's hot, like they are with DS/3DS, and really head off the competition early (who are obviously going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the next cycle).  Going from strength to strength, like PS1 to Ps2 or (hopefully) DS to 3DS, is probably exactly what they're planning.



Vanbierk on 18 June 2010
jarrod said:
Vanbierk said:

Nintendo typically releases a console...and drops the old one, so i'm assuming that the DS will Not pass the Ps2 in sales...but even so, it's a handheld

GBA did almost 30% of it's sales after DS launched.  DS will fly past PS2 within months from now, and lifetime it will boast a lead over it measured in the tens of millions.  This isn't projection, it's inevitability.


Regardless, it's comparing all-in-one handheld sales to a console that needs to be attached to a monitor device...I would find that just a little unfair, regardless if they are both video game systems



Just waiting for that PS Vita to come out so I can play some full featured games on the go with that beautiful screen and control scheme...

Khuutra on 18 June 2010
Vanbierk said:

Regardless, it's comparing all-in-one handheld sales to a console that needs to be attached to a monitor device...I would find that just a little unfair, regardless if they are both video game systems

Why would it be unfair? PS2 outsold the Gameboy and the GBA. If the DS outsells it, it will be the best-selling dedicated gaming platform thre is. That doesn't change just because it's a handheld.



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Maynard_Tool on 18 June 2010
Vanbierk said:
jarrod said:
Vanbierk said:

Nintendo typically releases a console...and drops the old one, so i'm assuming that the DS will Not pass the Ps2 in sales...but even so, it's a handheld

GBA did almost 30% of it's sales after DS launched.  DS will fly past PS2 within months from now, and lifetime it will boast a lead over it measured in the tens of millions.  This isn't projection, it's inevitability.


Regardless, it's comparing all-in-one handheld sales to a console that needs to be attached to a monitor device...I would find that just a little unfair, regardless if they are both video game systems


Change of speech i see xD

At the end... they are videogames machines. When the ps2 surpassed the GBA it was a big fuss, so yeah....

The DS will become the BEST selling videogame console of all time



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Buzzi on 18 June 2010

No question DS will pass PS2, and even if VGC doesn't track some territories the same is for DS, so there's maximum a 15m difference...DS will reach 150m, if not 160m!



CURRENTLY PLAYING: Xenoblade (Wii), Super mario 3D land (3DS), Guild Wars (PC)

 

Alby_da_Wolf on 18 June 2010

It will, nobody said Nintendo will stop selling DS when it launches 3DS and it wouldn't make any sense, most people won't buy 3DS at its launch price but a lot of people that won't buy a DS at its current price could buy it if it drops to around $100. DS has an immense and varied SW library that doesn't need 3D and that can sell the system also to people lukewarm towards it if the price is right.

Edit @Buzzi:

I think that if Nintendo wants to keep it alive long enough, and it could be the case if costs don't allow to cut 3DS price quickly to enlarge its audience, DS could easily reach even 180M, and if Nintendo goes further, following a "Sony approach", it could maybe reach even 200M.

I understand that DS' and Wii's success is so huge that Nintendo is maybe scared of becoming too tied to them (*), it will have to carefully evaluate pros and cons about it before deciding when killing them.

(*) but it must also be said that it wasn't PS2 success to hurt PS3, as it's also proven by PSOne not damaging PS2, instead they were just Sony's mistakes happening together with XB360 early launch and Wii's overwhelming success to hurt it.



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Metallicube on 18 June 2010

Ugh, this site seems to hate firefox for some reason.. My posts don't go through half the time..

Anyway, if PS2 has really sold 136 million like you said, then DS should have no trouble passing PS2, though I always thought it sold a little more than that, like 140..

But even so, DS outsells PS2 by a pretty large amount on a consistant basis, and I actually think even after the 3DS comes out, DS sales will still be healthy for quite some time, like the GBA was in America after DS came out there. DS may be in decline, but it's far from done. The DS took off later in America, so I think it'll also decline later there.

When it's all said and done, I predict around 145 million for PS2, while DS will make it to 150 million. It will be close but DS should barely edge it out. 



yum123 on 18 June 2010

the ps2 is at 142 and ds is 130 so 12 more million with 3ds coming should just egde past it but only just