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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Wii sales slow down after Christmas?

shams on 30 November 2007

This is a classic thread, with some classic replies :)

"Sales" WILL go down after Xmas - because supply will decrease. And I don't mean manufacturing - Nintendo will immediately start stockpiling Wiis for Xmas '08 (no joke!).

Sales will probably sit around 1.2-1.5m / month - still way above what "normal" post-Xmas sales are. This is broken down to approx:

 - 60k / week Japan

 - 100k / week Europe

 -  120k / week US

(total is around 300k/week, or 1.2-1.5m / month)

Ninty have also STATED that its "NOT POSSIBLE" to increase production any further (for now anyway). I'm still hopeful they get up to 2.0m - 2.5m / month by the end of '08 (leading to 25m-30m shipped for '08).

...

For the Wii - the pattern for '08 will match the pattern for '07 - except the "lows" will be less pronounced. I'm doubtful of any price cuts, new colours or hardware revisions next year - just doesn't make sense. They will be planning something cool for Xmas '08 though - maybe a price cut/bundle, or even a new colour.

Wii software sales will explode next year - and just wait for WiiWare... one to keep your eye on ;) 



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mike_intellivision on 30 November 2007

Given the pent-up demand, only supply constraints will lead to lower Wii sales in the coming months. I cannot remember any console still being this "hot" in its second Christmas/Holiday season. And I am old enough to remember EVERY system.

At this rate, it may be 2009 before you can walk into a store and find a Wii readily. (There was a few weeks in April when this occured -- that's when I bought mine).

Also, the Wii appeals to Baby Boomers and people with kids -- people who normally have not been the biggest game buyers. That may help explain the lower attach rate -- and the higher demand.

Mike from Morgantown



      


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Xeo_842 on 30 November 2007
Xeo_842 said:
Yeaaaaa.....who cares about video game sales if you dont even profit from them? What a waste of life. I'm going to get up off this computer and continue living life without squandering it on such trifling matters. And if you people are so sure about your predictions that you put so much effort into researching to make your statements with statistics, numbers, and dates, you guys should make bets with money so that you actually gain something from your useless hobby. Anyway, thanks for your time, and to let you guys know, there is no need to reply to this comment because I will not read it and I will never again in my life intentionally visit this website again. All I ask is that you read this, sit back a moment to reflect on it, and then try to tell yourself what significant gain do you recieve if your prediction is right. It is time to stop playing Fantasy Video Game Console Wars, just get up and play whatever video games you have or get out your house and hang out with friends. 

I did not write any of this. It must of been my brother who got on when I left to do something.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 30 November 2007

@Avinash_Tyagi - For the Wii so sell more than the whole PS family it would have to sell. 102m(ps1)+120M(ps2)+the amount of ps2 still being sold + psp + ps3. = would probably equal over 300M. Even if it sales twice as much as the ps2 it still would need more. The ps2 was also $50 more and was also strained in production its 1st year.


So was Wii, Wii will be able to reach that 300 million mark



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

misterd on 30 November 2007
PDF said:
***************************************************************

I got hit hard by alot of you but that was expected. I would now like to respond to as many of you as I can.

@end - I only had a ps1 and I was happy. I had no need for a N64. I only had a ps2, I had no need for a xbox. If you make the smart choice you can easily be satisfied with only one console. (I also have a comp for games)

@misterd - I dint cherry pick those quotes somone else earlier on this forum did. I just reused them =). I think most Wii owners are like you and will buy another system but alot of 360 and ps3 owners will not. To answer your question. I think Sony has the most to learn and if they learn it the ps4 will be a very very good system. I think microsoft will try a more inovative approach to but marketing wise they are doing fine. I think the only thing Nintendo will do next time is make it more powerfull. (this time they will have the money to do so)

@z64dan - I think that would actualy be very Smart of Nintendo not to wait and make a more hitech wii. (wii²-my sugestion as a name) or it could be a bad idea realeasing to early and people not ready to switch to a another new console already.

@Bursche - My point is one I made earlier in this post. While more wii owners will switch than ps3 or 360 owners. I have no proof obviously just prediciton. There are stupid ps3 fanboys just like there are stupid 360 and wii fanboys. Not all Fanboys are stupid like some people claim. You can be loyal to somting without being stupid.

@Avinash_Tyagi - For the Wii so sell more than the whole PS family it would have to sell. 102m(ps1)+120M(ps2)+the amount of ps2 still being sold + psp + ps3. = would probably equal over 300M. Even if it sales twice as much as the ps2 it still would need more. The ps2 was also $50 more and was also strained in production its 1st year.

***************************************************************

Nintendo has ALWAYS had the money to make a more powerful system. They actually made a ton of money off the GameCube, and the GB/DS line has kept their coffers well stocked for over a decade. They didn't make the Wii more powerful because, for some reason, they think that customers don't want to spend $500 on a console, and that it makes little sense for them to lose $100-200 every time they sell a system. Crazy, I know, but whatcha gonna do?

 As to the second point, I think "switch" is a poor choice of words. "Add" maybe. But switch implies giving up on one system and going to another. I think everyone recognized after E3 2006 that the PS3 and 360 would be largely redundant systems in terms of capabilities, gaming experience and 3rd party software, which would make the Wii if not gamers first choice, then their second (hence the birth of the Wii60s and PSWiis). And in the current market, being everyone's second choice can be enough to make you the industry leader.



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Zucas on 30 November 2007

Of course they will. All sales slow down after holidays. Common sense that they will.

Other than me being an ass though, I really couldn't tell ya. I doubt it. I've never seen any product have such high demand going into holidays, just all of a sudden die out the next instance. It'd be a first.



ssj12 on 30 November 2007

sales all around will die off for a while after Christmas as no one has enough money thanks to Christmas to use for at least 3 months as they probably spent like a grand on everyone they know.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 30 November 2007
ssj12 said:
sales all around will die off for a while after Christmas as no one has enough money thanks to Christmas to use for at least 3 months as they probably spent like a grand on everyone they know.

 Gift cards, checks and cash as gifts



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

pearljammer on 01 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
@Avinash_Tyagi - For the Wii so sell more than the whole PS family it would have to sell. 102m(ps1)+120M(ps2)+the amount of ps2 still being sold + psp + ps3. = would probably equal over 300M. Even if it sales twice as much as the ps2 it still would need more. The ps2 was also $50 more and was also strained in production its 1st year.


So was Wii, Wii will be able to reach that 300 million mark

 You are, of course, joking right?

The Wii is undoubtedly doing great and is likely to continue that trend and I'm not casting doubt that it won't pass PS2's record... but... 300 million. Do you not think that is being even a bit overly optimistic?

 Also, I'd have to agree with PDF in that I wouldn't be able to own only a Wii this generation, sure it has some great games, but I'd still need my dosage of things non-Nintendo as well, whether it'd come from PS3 or 360. But because of some of the target audience that you mentioned, I don't necessarily feel that many others share that same thought. It really is too bad though, you'll miss out on some great games.



tuggy on 01 December 2007

Sales will stay up since good games are coming out after Christmas! They will not sale 600000 a week, but I think around 100,000 is fair amount