well if they are all out within the same year then its going to be very close, its hard to tell whether the wii audience will even purchase the next console , i mean realistically the only crowd concerned with pushing graphics and physics is the hardcore crowd which is pc, ps3 and 360.

i personally think sony and microsoft are going to dominate , its gonan be just as close as it is now , the hardcore market still owns the scene.

The thing is Sony and Microsoft had no idea going in that Nintendo's Casual player system would sell so well.  Motion controllers are just the beginning for Sony/MS, they'll want to have the type of casual-party-family games on their system like Nintendo has (again which sell well).
Sony has the studio power to do it, Microsoft needs to gain more 1st party otherwise they will not lead next gen over Sony.

I think each system will have leaders in its own regions next gen., like MS once again leading NA, Sony in others+Japan. I really have no idea where Nintendo will be in sales, they're just so unpredictable.

Nintendo -

If they keep the "Wii" name, they will do VERY well.
They will need some big new innovation, as 3rd party support will likely still be sticking with PS and Xbox...

Xbox -

I think the best they can do is 2nd place due to a lack of Japan sales and a lack of "Others" sales.
They will have great 3rd party support just like this gen.

PlayStation -

If they launch at a reasonable price, they will have a good shot at 1st place.
Still the biggest name in gaming.


Overall, i think it will be a close fight between "PS4" and "Super Wii". "Nextbox" will sell very well, but wont be able to keep up with Sony/Ninty basicly because of Japan/"Others", and 1st party.

@AdRE, it will never happen muahahahaa

In what sense?

In the sense of being the most well known name in gaming out of the big 3.

"PlayStation" is more popular than "Xbox", "Nintendo" or "Wii"... Despite being harmed during PS3 launch.

You are aware that Sony lost a ton of money BECAUSE of the PS3.  They can't approach the next gen as though they have money to throw away on their console, it didn't work for them this time.  Plus the amount of money Nintendo has is largely irrelevant.  They have a ton, they had a ton before this generation started but their aim will be, as always, to earn more, not to spend the money they have earned in a pissing contest.

@Mr Y. SNES?  I know that was a long time ago and it's a rather large mental leap in this day and age but the risk for third parties is that if they don't support the Wii 2 from the outset and it carries on the the momentum of the Wii, it could dominate even more than it has this generation.  They can't afford to miss out on that.  Also I believe hardware processing  differences will be lessened next generation, meaning cross hardware development will be more feasible than this generation.

What basis do you have for saying this?

It is okay, I know sarcasm can be hard to detect on the internets.

I would be interested to know the reasoning as well.