HD will be a partial factor. As (I have probably mentioned a few too many times now :>), I have a "old" HD set - but its reasonable small (82cm?), and the Wii looks fantastic on it - perfect for my living room.

I don't think its as much about HD, as it is about TV size. When most people have huge sets (100cm+), then these low resolutions start to have a more significant impact. But the timing is still pretty good for Nintendo - in about 4 years time, a lot of people will have these sets - and Niintendo will be ready to release the Wii2.

...

When I say emulate the Wiimote, I consider the "pointing" functionality critical. In a lot of ways, this sets the Wiimote apart from other devices because it fundementally changes the way you select objects on the screen. The one vrs two-handed concept is also pretty fundemental.

 Yeah because when you insert Zelda in the Wii it magically gets locked and plays only Zelda and Mario... OMG I can't buy any other games for my Wii!!!

*Please* be serious!

There is something about it. Nintendo make great games, and 3rd-party-developers must face this competition. As long as they make crappy or mediocre games, they will never get the big sales on a nintendo-console. Nintendo alone cannot create enough games for everyone. They produce games for nearly every genre, but 3rd-party-games are needed. Looks not so bad at the moment for the Wii, but who knows what will be at the end of the year.

The biggest threat to the Wii is if either the PS3 or 360 starts to dominate over the other.  As long as their is no clear dominant choice for HD gaming (like the PS2 was last gen) then both will struggle to convince people (like me) to buy their system and risk it becoming obsolete.  Similar to the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD battle being irrelevant compared to DVD's.  Whereas right now, the Wii is different and unique so if you're interested, you get it (or try to), you don't have to worry about which of the Wii-type consoles you should get.

First of all what's a failure for the Wii? Coming in last? Well the GameCube was Nintendo lowest selling console ever and it was still quite profitable. It's all but certain the Wii will outsell the GameCube. I think if Nintendo came in a strong third Nintendo would concider that a success. In my opinion as far as worldwide sales I can't see it coming in worse than second anyway. Either the PS3 or 360 will break out and either come close to matching Wii number or surprass it eventually. More likely that will be the PS3. There's no way I can see in such direct competition both outsell the Wii.

 Reason one is flawed Certian games already make use of Mii's and Online, like Sega's Pachinko game

Reason two is all on the devs, Miyamoto told them to stop being lazy 

Reason 3 is irrelavant as most do not have HDTV's

Reason 4 doesn't seem to be affecting Wii sales, because most casuals don't care about online that much 

If all you want is PS2 games, Wii is definitely an easy port machine. I somehow doubt the market will be pleased with this, though.

Porting to Gamecube was cheaper than porting to Wii will be, and that's even assuming a Wii port is possible, which it won't always be.

Nobody's taking Nintendo's online plans seriously. I'm having trouble even taking Sony seriously.

Gamecube had pretty similar third party support to the Wii. They were always third in line and will still be third in line, but there's enough support there to supplement those primarily interested in Nintendo's games.

I'd suggest that Wii Play and Sports are the most convincing argument that quality isn't really as great an influence on sales as sometimes is suggested.