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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is It Possible 4 The PS3 To Sell 100M B4 It's Off The Market?... I Think So - UPDATE 85 Millionz Reached

 

Will The PS3 Sell 100M Before Its off The Market?

no Wii will always be ahead 56 38.89%
 
iz possible 46 31.94%
 
yes number 1 console of 7th gen 39 27.08%
 
Total:141
Alterego-X said:

BHR-3 said:

 

Sony usually keeps their console on the market for 10yrs ...  I believe that what really slowed down the PS2 sales was the fact that this gen started in 2005 which i believe slowed down the PS2 sales considerably resulting in only really 5 good solid years of sales...

...I dont see new consoles releasing till atleast 2013 or 2014 or even later so that will mean that the PS3 will have about 3-4 more years...

You are totally mixing cause and effect. 

Hardware sells because there is demand for it, not because Sony wants it to sell. The previous generation had to end because there was no longer sufficient demand for the PS2. 

 

Also, there were only two earlier Sony consoles, and they also happened to be the two best selling home consoles ever in the history of gaming. 

What do you think, what made them sell for such a long time? The magical "Sony" logo on their casing?  Or the exceptional demand (which the PS3 lacks)?

 

Obviously, if it would be a matter of wanting really hard, every company would keep their consoles on the market for ten years,   or more, too bad it is useless if people don't buy it.

Exactly WHAT will make people buy the PS3 for another 3-4 years, considering that even more successful consoles than it, lost momentum after a lot shorter time?

 

PS2 sales

Released 2000--

2000 5.6m

2001 16m

2002 21m

2003 19m

2004 16m

2005 18m (next gen began this year... check out that "no longer sufficient demand") =p

2006 13m

2007 10m

2008 6m

2009 4m

 



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no, won't happen.

Probably about 70 million, just like 360.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

darkshadow23 said:
Alterego-X said:

BHR-3 said:

 

 

Sony usually keeps their console on the market for 10yrs ...  I believe that what really slowed down the PS2 sales was the fact that this gen started in 2005 which i believe slowed down the PS2 sales considerably resulting in only really 5 good solid years of sales...

...I dont see new consoles releasing till atleast 2013 or 2014 or even later so that will mean that the PS3 will have about 3-4 more years...

You are totally mixing cause and effect. 

Hardware sells because there is demand for it, not because Sony wants it to sell. The previous generation had to end because there was no longer sufficient demand for the PS2. 

 

Also, there were only two earlier Sony consoles, and they also happened to be the two best selling home consoles ever in the history of gaming. 

What do you think, what made them sell for such a long time? The magical "Sony" logo on their casing?  Or the exceptional demand (which the PS3 lacks)?

 

Obviously, if it would be a matter of wanting really hard, every company would keep their consoles on the market for ten years,   or more, too bad it is useless if people don't buy it.

Exactly WHAT will make people buy the PS3 for another 3-4 years, considering that even more successful consoles than it, lost momentum after a lot shorter time?

 

PS2 sales

Released 2000--

2000 5.6m

2001 16m

2002 21m

2003 19m

2004 16m

2005 18m (next gen began right at the end of this year... check out that "no longer sufficient demand") =p

2006 13m (gen properly began right at the end of this year.)  check out the collapse in demand.

2007 10m

2008 6m

2009 4m

 

fixed it for you



I'm not really here!


Last generation PS2 + XBox + GC was somewhere around 185 million I think.

Considering that the Wii and PS3 came out at the same time and the Wii has consistently sold over twice as much, if the PS3 sells 100 million, the Wii will be at about 210 million at the absolute least, and the Xbox360 will probably be close to the PS3 at 90 - 110 million. This would make the total of all 3 systems 410 million. That would make this generation 220% bigger than last generation. The 2nd and 3rd place consoles will be doing about 5 times better than the XBox and GC?

Yes this generation will last longer than last generation, and is much bigger thanks to the market expansion, and the 2nd and 3rd places are doing much much better than usual. But at some point, everybody but the market leader slows down.


I just don't see any of this happening. There just isn't room for a 2nd or 3rd place console to sell 100 million units. It'll be easier for the Wii to sell 200 million than for the PS3 to sell 100 million, but I'm not even sure if that's going to happen (depends on how slow the Wii burns out over the next 5-8 years). The market is a lot bigger for the Wii and the casuals and women and old people and monkey butlers and whatever, but the hardcore isn't 5 times bigger than it was a few years ago.



kowenicki said:
darkshadow23 said:
Alterego-X said:

BHR-3 said:

 

 

Sony usually keeps their console on the market for 10yrs ...  I believe that what really slowed down the PS2 sales was the fact that this gen started in 2005 which i believe slowed down the PS2 sales considerably resulting in only really 5 good solid years of sales...

...I dont see new consoles releasing till atleast 2013 or 2014 or even later so that will mean that the PS3 will have about 3-4 more years...

You are totally mixing cause and effect. 

Hardware sells because there is demand for it, not because Sony wants it to sell. The previous generation had to end because there was no longer sufficient demand for the PS2. 

 

Also, there were only two earlier Sony consoles, and they also happened to be the two best selling home consoles ever in the history of gaming. 

What do you think, what made them sell for such a long time? The magical "Sony" logo on their casing?  Or the exceptional demand (which the PS3 lacks)?

 

Obviously, if it would be a matter of wanting really hard, every company would keep their consoles on the market for ten years,   or more, too bad it is useless if people don't buy it.

Exactly WHAT will make people buy the PS3 for another 3-4 years, considering that even more successful consoles than it, lost momentum after a lot shorter time?

 

PS2 sales

Released 2000--

2000 5.6m

2001 16m

2002 21m

2003 19m

2004 16m

2005 18m (next gen began right at the end of this year... check out that "no longer sufficient demand") =p

2006 13m (gen properly began right at the end of this year.)  check out the collapse in demand.

2007 10m

2008 6m

2009 4m

 

fixed it for you

that also means that the PS3 is in also 8 more countries this time that it would have in  previous generation which means they have to section off a number of system that are in production to be shipped off to these countries also out of the 10 million a year, now what we do not know is how many system's are being sent to these countries per shipment per month based on all the countries that the PS3 is shipped too. if you take 10 million system's a year / 36 countries is :

277,779 unit's per YEAR to those region's than devide that per month 23,148 system's per month. needed to be shipped for a full year, hell just in japan alone how many PS3's get shipped per week? or month? 30,000?, 90,000? etc.

that time table is not without an extra 8 more market's to add to the distribution of the system's just like the xbox360 there are more market's that the xbox360 has been released into than the first xbox was.

the first xbox was arround 24+ million system's world wide in four year's but the xbox360 is 37+ is 9.25 million system's for the xbox360 per year vs' the first xbox 6 million

so that's on average 3 million system's per year, remember the xbox360 was not released until late 2005 so not even a full year. it's just now going on its near 5 year when nov. roll's , that 3 million a year growth is very good. so how many region's was the first xbox released into .

"The Xbox was released on November 15, 2001 in North America, February 22, 2002 in Japan, and March 14, 2002 in Australia and Europe."

quite a bit less than 21!

 

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

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Interesting question. I'll decide to predict where PS3/Wii/360 will end up.

We know that the PS3 is tracking ahead of the PS1, and the PS1 did over 100million, however we also know that the PS1 shipped 19.3, 21.6 and 18.5 million on its 4th, 5th and 6th FY so it should start tracking ahead of the PS3 soon.

Anyways, LTD we have:

PS3 = 33.5 million
XBox 360 = 38.7 million (39 million rounded up from Greenberg)
Wii = 67.45 million

YTD
PS3 = 10.8 million (forecast = 13 million)
360 = 8.5 million (forecast not given)
Wii = 17 million (forecast = 26 million)

Let's say that Wii and PS3 meet their forecast for this year and that the 360 ships another 2 million this quarter, that would mean:

PS3 = 35.7 million
360 = 40.7 million
Wii = 76.45 million

Now from here on out will be very tough to predict how things will play out, but I'll give it a shot. I expect

MS = this fall comes out with Elite 250GB 360 bundled with Natal and a game for U$300, Core 360 with natal and a game for U$200. Those will be the standard SKUs and all other SKUs will be phased out. After that I expect another price drop in 2011/2012 with an introduction of the 720. By 2013 they'll probably stop producing 360s altogether. I do not expect a 360 slim. IF MS wants to be really aggressive with pricing, knock U$50 off the bundled prices I gave above.

Sony = I'm confused on Sony because they said they'll lose money for another year but they already filled for another FCC on the HW - which supposedly improves HW cost savings - so maybe they're counting on another price drop already? I expect this fall comes out with Arc bundle 250GB PS3 and Eyetoy mini game for U$300, and the 120GB for U$250. If they want to be aggressive, they'll bundle the 120GB as well. 2011/2012 will see it for 199/249. I wouldn't put it past Sony to release a slimmer version of the PS3 with SSD drive instead of HDD.

Wii = Drop price if and only if PS3/360 start to threaten it like the PS3 slim did in early september. I do not expect a Wii HD.

With that said I think the PS3 will possibly squeeze by it, but it'll be after the PS4 is already out, the 360 will be just shy of reaching the milestone and the Wii will maybe possibly pass the PS2, depending on how well the PS3/360 sell after their price cuts/bundles this year.



The Ghost of RubangB said:
Last generation PS2 + XBox + GC was somewhere around 185 million I think.

Considering that the Wii and PS3 came out at the same time and the Wii has consistently sold over twice as much, if the PS3 sells 100 million, the Wii will be at about 210 million at the absolute least, and the Xbox360 will probably be close to the PS3 at 90 - 110 million. This would make the total of all 3 systems 410 million. That would make this generation 220% bigger than last generation. The 2nd and 3rd place consoles will be doing about 5 times better than the XBox and GC?

Yes this generation will last longer than last generation, and is much bigger thanks to the market expansion, and the 2nd and 3rd places are doing much much better than usual. But at some point, everybody but the market leader slows down.


I just don't see any of this happening. There just isn't room for a 2nd or 3rd place console to sell 100 million units. It'll be easier for the Wii to sell 200 million than for the PS3 to sell 100 million, but I'm not even sure if that's going to happen (depends on how slow the Wii burns out over the next 5-8 years). The market is a lot bigger for the Wii and the casuals and women and old people and monkey butlers and whatever, but the hardcore isn't 5 times bigger than it was a few years ago.

The only problem is, and it's a long shot...

What if the Wii successor is out either this year or next? Sony and MS have both stated how they want this gen to last for a long, long time so i doubt we will see anything from them for a few years yet, especially if Natal and Arc both sell moderately well.

Nintendo have constant rumor's of new hardware being revealed, and don't seem to talk about how long they want the Wii to be on sale for (i haven't seen anything anyway).

It could severely drop Wii sales as Nintendo focus on the Wii2, and could keep Wii from hitting PS2-like numbers.



                            

The Ghost of RubangB said:
Last generation PS2 + XBox + GC was somewhere around 185 million I think.

Considering that the Wii and PS3 came out at the same time and the Wii has consistently sold over twice as much, if the PS3 sells 100 million, the Wii will be at about 210 million at the absolute least, and the Xbox360 will probably be close to the PS3 at 90 - 110 million. This would make the total of all 3 systems 410 million. That would make this generation 220% bigger than last generation. The 2nd and 3rd place consoles will be doing about 5 times better than the XBox and GC?

Yes this generation will last longer than last generation, and is much bigger thanks to the market expansion, and the 2nd and 3rd places are doing much much better than usual. But at some point, everybody but the market leader slows down.


I just don't see any of this happening. There just isn't room for a 2nd or 3rd place console to sell 100 million units. It'll be easier for the Wii to sell 200 million than for the PS3 to sell 100 million, but I'm not even sure if that's going to happen (depends on how slow the Wii burns out over the next 5-8 years). The market is a lot bigger for the Wii and the casuals and women and old people and monkey butlers and whatever, but the hardcore isn't 5 times bigger than it was a few years ago.

yes it may be unthinkable, but one only has to look at the growth of the market world wide this generation vs' last generation the Wii is in 38 countries world wide, how many was the game cube in last generation?, not 38

just look at the xbox360's market penetration :

the first xbox was only released in limited areas vs's this generation now 21 region's for the xbox360.

the market can sustain the growth. I think that has more to do with the advancement of technology as a whole even 3rd world nation's what would have been no way near the advancement of technology now with thing's OLPC:

http://laptop.org/en/children/index.shtml

the world is getting smaller for communication and technology unlike 10 year's ago who would of ever thought of the Netbook reaching a price of $100.00 or less, yes that's quite a bit of money  in some place's of the world but also there is many areas that now have this technology in those countries that many thought there would be no way because of the econmic's there but yet there it is.

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

Carl2291 said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Last generation PS2 + XBox + GC was somewhere around 185 million I think.

Considering that the Wii and PS3 came out at the same time and the Wii has consistently sold over twice as much, if the PS3 sells 100 million, the Wii will be at about 210 million at the absolute least, and the Xbox360 will probably be close to the PS3 at 90 - 110 million. This would make the total of all 3 systems 410 million. That would make this generation 220% bigger than last generation. The 2nd and 3rd place consoles will be doing about 5 times better than the XBox and GC?

Yes this generation will last longer than last generation, and is much bigger thanks to the market expansion, and the 2nd and 3rd places are doing much much better than usual. But at some point, everybody but the market leader slows down.


I just don't see any of this happening. There just isn't room for a 2nd or 3rd place console to sell 100 million units. It'll be easier for the Wii to sell 200 million than for the PS3 to sell 100 million, but I'm not even sure if that's going to happen (depends on how slow the Wii burns out over the next 5-8 years). The market is a lot bigger for the Wii and the casuals and women and old people and monkey butlers and whatever, but the hardcore isn't 5 times bigger than it was a few years ago.

The only problem is, and it's a long shot...

What if the Wii successor is out either this year or next? Sony and MS have both stated how they want this gen to last for a long, long time so i doubt we will see anything from them for a few years yet, especially if Natal and Arc both sell moderately well.

Nintendo have constant rumor's of new hardware being revealed, and don't seem to talk about how long they want the Wii to be on sale for (i haven't seen anything anyway).

It could severely drop Wii sales as Nintendo focus on the Wii2, and could keep Wii from hitting PS2-like numbers.

yup, but on the same token so what if it's out, did that stop the DS lite from selling when the DSi was released?

nope...change the color and yet you still keep selling the unit's. just look at Nintendo's history of selling system's.

that just mean's they will just keep selling the Wii.



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

joeorc said:
Carl2291 said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Last generation PS2 + XBox + GC was somewhere around 185 million I think.

Considering that the Wii and PS3 came out at the same time and the Wii has consistently sold over twice as much, if the PS3 sells 100 million, the Wii will be at about 210 million at the absolute least, and the Xbox360 will probably be close to the PS3 at 90 - 110 million. This would make the total of all 3 systems 410 million. That would make this generation 220% bigger than last generation. The 2nd and 3rd place consoles will be doing about 5 times better than the XBox and GC?

Yes this generation will last longer than last generation, and is much bigger thanks to the market expansion, and the 2nd and 3rd places are doing much much better than usual. But at some point, everybody but the market leader slows down.


I just don't see any of this happening. There just isn't room for a 2nd or 3rd place console to sell 100 million units. It'll be easier for the Wii to sell 200 million than for the PS3 to sell 100 million, but I'm not even sure if that's going to happen (depends on how slow the Wii burns out over the next 5-8 years). The market is a lot bigger for the Wii and the casuals and women and old people and monkey butlers and whatever, but the hardcore isn't 5 times bigger than it was a few years ago.

The only problem is, and it's a long shot...

What if the Wii successor is out either this year or next? Sony and MS have both stated how they want this gen to last for a long, long time so i doubt we will see anything from them for a few years yet, especially if Natal and Arc both sell moderately well.

Nintendo have constant rumor's of new hardware being revealed, and don't seem to talk about how long they want the Wii to be on sale for (i haven't seen anything anyway).

It could severely drop Wii sales as Nintendo focus on the Wii2, and could keep Wii from hitting PS2-like numbers.

yup, but on the same token so what if it's out, did that stop the DS lite from selling when the DSi was released?

nope...change the color and yet you still keep selling the unit's. just look at Nintendo's history of selling system's.

that just mean's they will just keep selling the Wii.

DSi isn't a whole new console, it's simply a hardware redesign.

What i mean is, a whole new console. New specs, new games... The lot.