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ElGranCabeza on 25 February 2010
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Interesting question. I'll decide to predict where PS3/Wii/360 will end up.

We know that the PS3 is tracking ahead of the PS1, and the PS1 did over 100million, however we also know that the PS1 shipped 19.3, 21.6 and 18.5 million on its 4th, 5th and 6th FY so it should start tracking ahead of the PS3 soon.

Anyways, LTD we have:

PS3 = 33.5 million
XBox 360 = 38.7 million (39 million rounded up from Greenberg)
Wii = 67.45 million

YTD
PS3 = 10.8 million (forecast = 13 million)
360 = 8.5 million (forecast not given)
Wii = 17 million (forecast = 26 million)

Let's say that Wii and PS3 meet their forecast for this year and that the 360 ships another 2 million this quarter, that would mean:

PS3 = 35.7 million
360 = 40.7 million
Wii = 76.45 million

Now from here on out will be very tough to predict how things will play out, but I'll give it a shot. I expect

MS = this fall comes out with Elite 250GB 360 bundled with Natal and a game for U$300, Core 360 with natal and a game for U$200. Those will be the standard SKUs and all other SKUs will be phased out. After that I expect another price drop in 2011/2012 with an introduction of the 720. By 2013 they'll probably stop producing 360s altogether. I do not expect a 360 slim. IF MS wants to be really aggressive with pricing, knock U$50 off the bundled prices I gave above.

Sony = I'm confused on Sony because they said they'll lose money for another year but they already filled for another FCC on the HW - which supposedly improves HW cost savings - so maybe they're counting on another price drop already? I expect this fall comes out with Arc bundle 250GB PS3 and Eyetoy mini game for U$300, and the 120GB for U$250. If they want to be aggressive, they'll bundle the 120GB as well. 2011/2012 will see it for 199/249. I wouldn't put it past Sony to release a slimmer version of the PS3 with SSD drive instead of HDD.

Wii = Drop price if and only if PS3/360 start to threaten it like the PS3 slim did in early september. I do not expect a Wii HD.

With that said I think the PS3 will possibly squeeze by it, but it'll be after the PS4 is already out, the 360 will be just shy of reaching the milestone and the Wii will maybe possibly pass the PS2, depending on how well the PS3/360 sell after their price cuts/bundles this year.