I see after july, however most likely sept with Halo Reach, price cut that month too, with Natal late OCT/ Nov

Yet again a poll in which none of the options fit with my opinion.

If Arc tanks, and Natal succeeds, and better still if 360 also sees a price cut of $50 or more for both skus then I can see 360 overtaking in global sales at least until Sony responds with its own pricing adjustments.

If Arc succeeds (irregardless of whether Natal succeeds more, less or not at all) then I don't see 360 overtaking PS3 without a price cut.

MS are certainly used to living with loss making hardware in order to drive sales. So if MS really want to take the fight to Sony then I can certainly see them dropping the price into a loss making position due to the introduction of Natal. Sony on the other hand are probably reluctant to go backwards on % loss per console, so I think they will be unlikely to drop PS3 price if they are planning to bundle Arc. I could see 120Gig Arc bundle and 250Gig sku at current $299 price, Non-Arc 120Gig sku at $249 and 250Gig+Arc at $349 hitting shop shelves in Q4 2010. 120Gig Skus will still be slight loss leaders and both 250 Gig skus will be sold at a profit. However if Sony are as comitted to Arc as they say they are then pretty much every PS3 sold should have Arc packed in, which means keeping both 120Gig and 250Gig skus at the same price, but maybe upping the HDD at the same time to 250gig & 500Gig (given it probably only costs them about $5 to get the extra HDD space it should be doable).

So my answer, if there was such an opition is: It's possible some time in the 2nd half of the year, but it depends on a lot of unknowns around pricing and success of motion controls on both systems.

And we are talking about a clear trend of 360 outselling PS3, not playing swapsies on a week about basis. I can certainly see 360 outselling PS3 in individual weeks throughout 2010, yet still remain behind or even with PS3 sales YTD.

It does also depend on whether these supply constraint anecdotes are truely suppressing PS3 sales or whether they are a mirage.

Another price cut of $50 a year after a price cut of $100? So erm when did you fit the plan to make a profit into your estimations? Even throwing in a bundled camera + arc would be quite the expense.

I honestly think that the next tim M$ has a price cut so too will SONY, which will render M$'s moot. Then there is Natel, which IMO will also reach a stalemate cause of SONY's motion controller.

I think if this senario happens, M$ will have a few random weeks here and there of outselling the PS3. Just my 2 cents...

Let's see. PS3 launched at $599/$499 3 years ago (60Gig/20Gig), virtually on it's 3rd anniversay in USA/Japan it went to its current pricving of $349/$299 (250Gig/120Gig). That's a $250/$200 (ave. $225) reduction in 3 years, or average $75 drop in price per year ($83/$66). 2009 saw a price drop of $100, a $50 price drop in 2010 = $150 over these 2 years. Surprise surprise that averages out to $75 per year. Without Arc coming on stream a $50 price cut would be a near certainty in 2010.

Now if you read my post fully I said I thought Arc bundles would be sold at the existing prices. So no reduction in price, but an increase in content, making a virtual price cut (probably of around $50).

Also Sony doesn't need to pack in both the PSEye and the Arc controller with the PS3. Another option would be to pack in the PSEye with every PS3 (there are many existing uses for the PSEye, so even people not interested in the Arc can find uses for the PSEye, including using it as a webcam on their PC (my PS2 Eyetoy is serving that purpose very well at the moment)), and sell an Arc controller (or 2) bundled with the Arc launch game titles. If Sony did this then I could possibly see a $25 HW reduction. Apparently the PSEye is "just a cheap webcam" so it probably only costs Sony $15 (Note Pachter reckons Natal production cost with 3 lenses is $50, PSEye with one lens gotta be considerably less).  $25 price cut + $15 PSEye = $40 virtual pricecut. That's in line with Sony's average annual price cut pattern for PS3. Make an Arc bundle that includes 1 game and controller(s) for $60 on top of the HW (incl. PSEye) RRP and you have a reasonable entry package for motion controls. But they gotta have the attractive software.

But there's no guarantee Sony will include any element of motion control as a pack in component. In many respects Sony are better off maintaining their average annual price drop pattern by dropping the PS3 price by $50 and offering optional Arc bundles at reasonably attractive prices.

From the look on how things are for 360, Japanese sales are hindering the sales against PS3 lead, when the shortages in PS3 America and places across Europe are dealt with, the numbers will start exploding again especially along with March 19th release of God of War III. and PS3's should be closing in on 200 mn or more from every week then on. A very short lead for 360 is possible with price-cut and release of AAA exclusives. And including the Natal with the SKU for 360 priced at 199$ should be the best deal though, while for PS3, including the Arc on it's 250 GB version(SKU) priced at 299$. Again there will remain this 100$ gap between the best deal SKU's.

Ps3 will continue to outsell 360 till 2012 probably. I just know it, mark my words, even though I like Xbox a lot more, it's just going to happen.

Your logic is flawed. The PS3 started out with immature technology so of course the cost would drop rapidly over the first couple of years. Now they run into fixed costs like Ram, royalties, HDD, Blu Ray, advertising, packaging etc which start to make a higher proportion of their overall costs. A virtual price cut huh? It'd be more effective to drop the price and let those who want Arc buy it for themselves theres no point in adding features for a cost which likely fewer than half of buyers will want. Not that im saying that dropping the price would be a good option either.

I still doubt that the PSEye is worth much on its own. Noone has any real use for a PS-Eye except alongside Arc so the one has to come with the other. They would definately never bundle a virgin PSEye. Since you know they want to actually make some money, the closest thing they will do to a price cut is bundle Arc in with the $350 SKU because thats the only PS3 version which has the margin to play with to do such a thing. Cutting the price $50 one year after a $100 price cut will not have a huge effect on their sales because most people who want a PS3 can afford it at the present price. In addition to this a lot more people have already made up their mind as to which console they want before they come into the store.

I like to hear myself argue.  I need to calm down.  I'm going to try my damnedest to make this personal since my arguments are so weak... oh wait, that last one isn't me. ;)

The only "excuse" here is (again) price.  Price in Japan isn't the problem, the issues run deeper than that.  And again, this isn't "guessing", there's literally noting on the horizon for Japan as big as slim/FFXIII.  "Guessing" would be holding out the great white hope that there was something on that level, based on nothing but blind faith.

haha

Again, I just don't see the issue you bring up. The PS3 is selling better than it's ever before. While you may think selling 24k in Feb is bad, I don't see it that way. I don't really take the Slim/FFXIII excuse too well since most did not expect it anyway. It's only after The Slim performed better than we predicted, now suddenly the PS3 can't do any better.

And yes, price does matter, you think a slim version without a pricecut would have made such an impact, I strongly doubt it. The PS3 biggest enemy has been it's price and still is everwhere.