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WilliamWatts on 21 February 2010
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binary solo said:
Yet again a poll in which none of the options fit with my opinion.

If Arc tanks, and Natal succeeds, and better still if 360 also sees a price cut of $50 or more for both skus then I can see 360 overtaking in global sales at least until Sony responds with its own pricing adjustments.

If Arc succeeds (irregardless of whether Natal succeeds more, less or not at all) then I don't see 360 overtaking PS3 without a price cut.

MS are certainly used to living with loss making hardware in order to drive sales. So if MS really want to take the fight to Sony then I can certainly see them dropping the price into a loss making position due to the introduction of Natal. Sony on the other hand are probably reluctant to go backwards on % loss per console, so I think they will be unlikely to drop PS3 price if they are planning to bundle Arc. I could see 120Gig Arc bundle and 250Gig sku at current $299 price, Non-Arc 120Gig sku at $249 and 250Gig+Arc at $349 hitting shop shelves in Q4 2010. 120Gig Skus will still be slight loss leaders and both 250 Gig skus will be sold at a profit. However if Sony are as comitted to Arc as they say they are then pretty much every PS3 sold should have Arc packed in, which means keeping both 120Gig and 250Gig skus at the same price, but maybe upping the HDD at the same time to 250gig & 500Gig (given it probably only costs them about $5 to get the extra HDD space it should be doable).

So my answer, if there was such an opition is: It's possible some time in the 2nd half of the year, but it depends on a lot of unknowns around pricing and success of motion controls on both systems.

And we are talking about a clear trend of 360 outselling PS3, not playing swapsies on a week about basis. I can certainly see 360 outselling PS3 in individual weeks throughout 2010, yet still remain behind or even with PS3 sales YTD.

It does also depend on whether these supply constraint anecdotes are truely suppressing PS3 sales or whether they are a mirage.

Another price cut of $50 a year after a price cut of $100? So erm when did you fit the plan to make a profit into your estimations? Even throwing in a bundled camera + arc would be quite the expense.