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Forums - Sony - GOW3 very much likely to selll 1.5 mn+ first week.

GameAnalyser on 13 February 2010
hunter_alien said:
CGI-Quality said:
Since most mouths were shut when Uncharted 2 exceeded expectations, I'm not ruling that out. It'll do 1 mill no problem at the least first week, that's for sure.

 

 

True, U2 was indeed a surprise doing ~ 800k first week, but dont forget many consider Drake the new mascot of the PS3, and I have a feeling that Kratos might have lost its lead. But who knows? I do hope that he will get his crown back soon

Well Naughty Dog must've never expected things to take this turn when they did make the game for PS3. So that's a flagship title owned. And now God of War none the less. There is a lot of room for fame. Santa Monica studios are equally contending.



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Kantor on 13 February 2010
hunter_alien said:
CGI-Quality said:
Since most mouths were shut when Uncharted 2 exceeded expectations, I'm not ruling that out. It'll do 1 mill no problem at the least first week, that's for sure.

 

 

True, U2 was indeed a surprise doing ~ 800k first week, but dont forget many consider Drake the new mascot of the PS3, and I have a feeling that Kratos might have lost its lead. But who knows? I do hope that he will get his crown back soon

While I do expect God of War III to outsell Uncharted 2 first week, I think Uncharted 2 will finish on top: it appeals to a wider audience, and it's more marketable.



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GameAnalyser on 13 February 2010
Kantor said:
GameAnalyser said:
CGI-Quality said:
GameAnalyser said:
CGI-Quality said:
Since most mouths were shut when Uncharted 2 exceeded expectations, I'm not ruling that out. It'll do 1 mill no problem at the least first week, that's for sure.


that one did disappoint me, but now glad to have known the game did sustain legs and now almost  onto 3 mn.

What disappointed you? It out-did most predictions.

It's  1st week numbers.

Oh dear god, it's like I jumped through a portal into 2007 here.

850,000 is an extremely strong first week for any game, no matter how anybody spins it. 

when predictions are in high contrast to acheived sales...at times the numbers don't impress. Well agreed with that though.



--OkeyDokey-- on 13 February 2010
vic_viper said:
@CaseyDDR: Pretty much, if the demo is anything to go by it pales in comparison to Bayonetta.

Eh. It was a great game but entirely forgettable for me. It's only been a month and already I feel "meh" thinking back on it. Didn't leave a lasting impression at all. Bit of a disappointment.



HappySqurriel on 13 February 2010
libellule said:
HappySqurriel said:

Being that God of War II sold closer to 500,000 first week, I think predictions like this are a good way to be disappointed with the sales God of War III achieves.

and looking at past-gen episode that were new IP (god of war1) or end of the PS2 gen release (god of war2) are a good way to be surprised IMO

How many PS3 games have sold dramatically better or faster than their PS2 counterparts?

How many game series in general see a decline in sales from the first game to the second game (with a continued decline on another platform) to suddenly see a massive spike to far beyond 3 times their original popularity?

750,000 sales first week is optimistic ... and I couldn't imagine Sony manufacturing more than 1 Million copies for the initial run.



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--OkeyDokey-- on 13 February 2010
HappySqurriel said:
libellule said:
HappySqurriel said:

Being that God of War II sold closer to 500,000 first week, I think predictions like this are a good way to be disappointed with the sales God of War III achieves.

and looking at past-gen episode that were new IP (god of war1) or end of the PS2 gen release (god of war2) are a good way to be surprised IMO

How many PS3 games have sold dramatically better or faster than their PS2 counterparts?

How many game series in general see a decline in sales from the first game to the second game (with a continued decline on another platform) to suddenly see a massive spike to far beyond 3 times their original popularity?

750,000 sales first week is optimistic ... and I couldn't imagine Sony manufacturing more than 1 Million copies for the initial run.

Metal Gear Solid fits your description perfectly. Saw a decline (of 1.5 million) from the second to third game one PS2 and sold barely a million on PSP. Then the PS3 sequel went on to sell 1.7 million first week. Significatly more than its PS2 prequel.

And MGS4 and God of War 3 are similar in that they're event type games. The last chapters in their respective franchises with a ridiculous amount of hype. Also, ioi has predicted 700-800k first week in America alone.



leo-j on 13 February 2010
HappySqurriel said:

Being that God of War II sold closer to 500,000 first week, I think predictions like this are a good way to be disappointed with the sales God of War III achieves.

Actually, I believe it will be the best selling GOW title by maybe half a million to a million units.

You shouldn't follow trends, I mean you expected LBP to sell along the numbers of the first Ratchet and clank on the ps3, because you didn't think there was a base for platformers on the console.. and the game is well over 3 million now.



 

mM
wholikeswood on 13 February 2010
pearLy said:

Let's do some calculations:

God of War - Others' sales = 28% America's Sales
God of War II - Others' sales = 35% America's Sales
[according to VGChartz data where Others sales might be incomplete]

1. God of War III preorders in America for February 6th: 350,000 (+11,000)
2. 6 weeks left until release -> 6x11,000=66,000
3. 66,000+350,000=416,000 preorders on release (not counting in the higher preorder numbers towards release)
4. 416,000 preorders + 150,000 spontaneous sales on release + higher preorder numbers towards release = 600,000 first week in America

40% x 600,000 = 240,000 first week in Others (higher percentage due to increasing popularity of the series in Europe)

America: 600,000
Others:  240,000
Japan:    25,000
Total:     865,000

These are only calculations of course. A million may still be possible. But if you make a prediction please let us know on what kind of presumptions it is based.

Excellent analysis, I reckon.

I'm similarly going to cap it at ~900k FW.



dsister44 on 13 February 2010
--OkeyDokey-- said:

Metal Gear Solid fits your description perfectly. Saw a decline (of 1.5 million) from the second to third game one PS2 and sold barely a million on PSP. Then the PS3 sequel went on to sell 1.7 million first week. Significatly more than its PS2 prequel.

And MGS4 and God of War 3 are similar in that they're event type games. The last chapters in their respective franchises with a ridiculous amount of hype. Also, ioi has predicted 700-800k first week in America alone.

But look at what games were on the PS3 then compared to now. How many stealth shooter games were on the PS3 at the time of MGS4? How many hack and slashes are on the Ps3? How many of them have released this year?

Edit: Also what games were released around the launch of MGS4 compared to that of GoW III? If I remember correctly MGS4 launched with very little competition, whereas GoWIII is releasing in a time with a lot of other games that were pushed back from last year



Wass on 13 February 2010

1.4 millions first week.