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Forums - Sony Discussion - GOW3 very much likely to selll 1.5 mn+ first week.

Smashed on 13 February 2010
GameAnalyser said:
Kantor said:
GameAnalyser said:
CGI-Quality said:
GameAnalyser said:
CGI-Quality said:
Since most mouths were shut when Uncharted 2 exceeded expectations, I'm not ruling that out. It'll do 1 mill no problem at the least first week, that's for sure.


that one did disappoint me, but now glad to have known the game did sustain legs and now almost  onto 3 mn.

What disappointed you? It out-did most predictions.

It's  1st week numbers.

Oh dear god, it's like I jumped through a portal into 2007 here.

850,000 is an extremely strong first week for any game, no matter how anybody spins it. 

when predictions are in high contrast to acheived sales...at times the numbers don't impress. Well agreed with that though.

Looking at Uncharted 1, everyone knows it's a game with legs.

Uncharted 2 proved the legs theory once again, look at it now. 850,000 week 1 is great for a new(er) IP.



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RPG on 13 February 2010
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..


1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

This is the only correct answer in this thread. Sales of a game have got to do with install base and nothing else at all. The PS3 is 25% of what the PS2 install base was when GOW II released and it only sold 2.6 million. Therefore GOW III will be lucky to sell 650k lifetime, it's simply the only logical answer I can think of.

 



 

HappySqurriel on 13 February 2010
--OkeyDokey-- said:
HappySqurriel said:
--OkeyDokey-- said:
HappySqurriel said:
libellule said:
HappySqurriel said:

Being that God of War II sold closer to 500,000 first week, I think predictions like this are a good way to be disappointed with the sales God of War III achieves.

and looking at past-gen episode that were new IP (god of war1) or end of the PS2 gen release (god of war2) are a good way to be surprised IMO

How many PS3 games have sold dramatically better or faster than their PS2 counterparts?

How many game series in general see a decline in sales from the first game to the second game (with a continued decline on another platform) to suddenly see a massive spike to far beyond 3 times their original popularity?

750,000 sales first week is optimistic ... and I couldn't imagine Sony manufacturing more than 1 Million copies for the initial run.

Metal Gear Solid fits your description perfectly. Saw a decline (of 1.5 million) from the second to third game one PS2 and sold barely a million on PSP. Then the PS3 sequel went on to sell 1.7 million first week. Significatly more than its PS2 prequel.

And MGS4 and God of War 3 are similar in that they're event type games. The last chapters in their respective franchises with a ridiculous amount of hype. Also, ioi has predicted 700-800k first week in America alone.

If you count the multiple releases of earlier Metal Gear Solid games and compare it against the sales of Metal Gear Solid 4 you will notice that Metal Gear Solid 4 is (roughly) in line with the sales of Metal Gear Solid 3. On top of this, if you compare the initial week sales of 2, 3 and 4 in Japan all three games had (roughly) the same initial week sales; and at no point did a Metal Gear Solid game sell at 3 times the rate of previous games.

500,000+ is a safe bet, 750,000+ is optimistic, and there is an outside chance of 1,000,000; but there is no way it will break 1,500,000 first week

Why would you count multiple releases? MGS4 hasn't been re-released yet. And why are you singling out Japan?

We're talking about first weeks here anyway. MGS3 sold 1 million first week and MGS4 sold 1.7 million first week. 1.5 million is too high for God of War, but 1 million is all but certain at this point.

Why am I focusing on Japan? Because it is the only weekly sales numbers we have for Metal Gear Solid 2 and 3 ...

Even without the multiple releases of Metal Gear Solid 3, Metal Gear Solid 4 only sold (roughly) 10% more than Metal Gear Solid 3; and it is reasonably fair to assume that the first week sales for Metal Gear Solid 4 were not 3 times the level of Metal Gear Solid 3.

It will be interesting to watch in a few weeks when the sales numbers are out and threads are started "500,000 copies for God of War III. Did it Flop" when the spin changes to be in line with what I am saying today; essentially "No one thought it would sell 1,000,000+ first week; after all God of War II only sold 500,000 copies and still was a 2+ Million selling title."



Tecmo on 13 February 2010

i dont know, 1.5 mil is going to be tough

not saying that it won't happen, but I would be surprised



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perpride on 13 February 2010

I don't think it will do it...but I'd be happy to see it happen.



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snyperdud on 13 February 2010

I think around 1.2 million is more realistic.

1.5 is out of reach imo.



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Squilliam on 13 February 2010

I say around 800k for the first week. Its just not that common for games to sell more than a million first week so I hesitate to say any game will without a track record of previously doing so or being close to doing so.



Tease.

GameAnalyser on 13 February 2010
RPG said:
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..

 

1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

This is the only correct answer in this thread. Sales of a game have got to do with install base and nothing else at all. The PS3 is 25% of what the PS2 install base was when GOW II released and it only sold 2.6 million. Therefore GOW III will be lucky to sell 650k lifetime, it's simply the only logical answer I can think of.

 


you are considering the ratio of the userbase to sales being the same way as previous gen. how did GOW1 sell more when userbase wasn't as big?

Now u need to relate  to the sales of HALO 3 over HALO 2. Those games are a gen apart. HALO 3 went on to sell more with lesser userbase than halo 2 on XB.



leo-j on 13 February 2010
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..


1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

When MGS3 came out, the PS2 install base was what? 60 million?

And it only sold 4.0 million to date..

yet MGS4 outsold it on half the install base, and its still selling moderately well



 

mM
GameAnalyser on 13 February 2010
leo-j said:
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..

 

1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

When MGS3 came out, the PS2 install base was what? 60 million?

And it only sold 4.0 million to date..

yet MGS4 outsold it on half the install base, and its still selling moderately well


yeah..couldn't put better than this to clarify sega's analysis.