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Forums - Sales Discussion - SW1 '25 vs. DS '11/3DS '17/Wii '12 Comparison Thread!

 

How will Switch compare with its three predecessors?

More than all three 12 46.15%
 
Less than DS, more than 3DS and Wii 12 46.15%
 
Less than DS and 3DS, more than Wii 1 3.85%
 
Less than all three 1 3.85%
 
Total:26

"It's been 3,000 years..."

Good evening one and all,

I'M BACK! 

I know I've always been here and never actually left the site, but if you recall, a few years back, I was doing these hardware sales comparison threads where I compared sales for all three, then eventually five, major consoles Year over Year and even to their predecessors on a week-to-week basis. Back when the sales numbers were updated weekly.

But I eventually stopped doing them because what had started out as a project on the side and something fun, I enjoyed and loved doing because I loved seeing the stats and following the trends and charts like we all do, eventually became so overwhelming to the point where it started feeling like a job. It felt like work, and the work just became too much. And I didn't want to do it anymore.

Since then @XtremeBG has picked up the wagon and led the charge in posting the comparison threads and has done a marvelous job with them! Definitely check those out if you haven't already, and if you have, continue to do so. Excellent work on those threads. Keep it up, BG!

So, with another holiday season come and gone, especially for the Nintendo Switch, which has now concluded its 8th, yes, EIGHTH holiday season, and the recently announced Nintendo Switch 2 on the horizon, everyone here and on many sites has speculated on how much gas the Switch 1 (Gotta get used to calling it that) has left in the tank. Can it get to 160 million? And can it actually, really catch and surpass the PlayStation 2?

So if you follow @RolStoppable 's thread "The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch" I posted a comment that showed the sales of various consoles from the years their successors released until discontinuation - To serve as a reference for how much Switch can realistically sell from 2025 onwards with Switch 2 slated to release this year. And with Nintendo's next financial report due in less than two weeks on Tues, Feb 4th - where they'll release the latest Switch shipment figures as of Dec 31, 2024 - It has led my mind racing as to what exactly Switch's chances, how much it needs to sell, and how much CAN it sell based on its predecessors' history, or if it'll even follow their history.

And before I knew it, that old spark started to come back! I spent one afternoon gathering specifically the regional data for the DS in 2011, 3DS in 2017, and Wii in 2012 to see how they sold when their respective successors released in that year - To give me an idea of what Switch could do this year.  And in the following three comments after this OP, you will see the results.

Now, this will be a one-time thing for a very special occasion to see if Switch can maintain the pace it needs to catch the PS2. I don't plan on doing any comparison threads with the PS5 or Series S/X. This may even carry into next year where I do ANOTHER thread comparing Switch 1 to other systems in the 2ND years of their successors' life cycles. But I'm getting WAY ahead of myself here. For now, let's just stay focused on this one.

With that said, folks. WELCOME to my first comparison thread in a long time! Nintendo Switch 1 '25 vs. Nintendo DS '11, Nintendo 3DS '17, and Nintendo Wii '12!

And the Nintendo Switch 1's march towards potential history!



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Nintendo Switch 1 2025 vs Nintendo DS 2011

Global

SW1 '25 - Weekly SW1 '25 - Yearly DS '11 - Weekly

DS '11 -Yearly

(+/-) Weekly (+/-) Yearly
356,101 356,101 428,125 428,125 - 72,024 - 72,024
166,611 522,712 248,985 677,110 - 82,374 - 154,398
142,752 665,464 213,039 890,149 - 70,287 - 224,685
130,277 795,741 216,580 1,106,729 - 86,303 - 310,988
124,228 919,969 202,249 1,308,978 - 78,021 - 389,009
204,117 1,513,095
218,022 1,731,117
229,293 1,960,410
210,978 2,171,388
230,530 2,401,918
193,782 2,595,700
184,541 2,780,241
173,631 2,953,872
166,570 3,120,442
168,020 3,288,462
163,629 3,452,091
166,058 3,618,149
164,618 3,782,767
140,786 3,923,553
136,979 4,060,532
138,871 4,199,403
138,615 4,338,018
147,227 4,485,245
147,008 4,632,253
165,633 4,797,886
192,301 4,990,187
180,051 5,170,238
168,022 5,338,260
168,702 5,506,962
164,483 5,671,445
145,665 5,817,110
132,850 5,949,960
120,125 6,070,085
111,021 6,181,106
108,909 6,290,015
98,989 6,389,004
90,884 6,479,888
89,338 6,569,226
84,818 6,654,044
80,876 6,734,920
77,428 6,812,348
85,046 6,897,394
104,709 7,002,103
121,462 7,123,565
141,236 7,264,801
188,794 7,453,595
351,510 7,805,105
305,952 8,111,057
324,882 8,435,939
362,941 8,798,880
384,692 9,183,572
177,103 9,360,675

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United States

Spoiler!

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Europe

Spoiler!

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Japan

Spoiler!

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Rest of the World

Spoiler!

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 13 March 2025

Nintendo Switch 1 2025 vs. Nintendo 3DS 2017

Global

SW1 '25 - Weekly SW1 '25 - Yearly 3DS '17 - Weekly

3DS '17 -Yearly

(+/-) Weekly (+/-) Yearly
356,101 356,101 164,752 164,752 + 191,349 + 191,349
166,611 522,712 84,336 249,088 + 82,275 + 273,624
142,752 665,464 76,123 325,211 + 66,629 + 340,253
130,277 795,741 73,129 398,340 + 57,148 + 397,401
124,228 919,969 76,372 474,712 + 47,856 + 445,257
86,404 561,116
114,114 675,230
71,649 746,879
75,259 822,138
71,518 893,656
95,110 988,766
97,456 1,086,222
89,112 1,175,334
79,943 1,255,277
80,650 1,335,927
76,233 1,412,160
76,036 1,488,196
77,939 1,566,135
67,831 1,633,966
66,585 1,700,551
65,606 1,766,157
65,793 1,831,950
70,509 1,902,459
72,944 1,975,403
73,507 2,048,910
65,318 2,114,228
72,675 2,186,903
114,846 2,301,749
91,085 2,392,834
197,883 2,590,717
116,800 2,707,517
103,198 2,810,715
90,922 2,901,637
82,443 2,984,080
82,974 3,067,054
79,472 3,146,526
83,161 3,229,687
83,071 3,312,758
99,254 3,412,012
104,311 3,516,323
106,148 3,622,471
106,593 3,729,064
114,887 3,843,951
124,628 3,968,579
136,837 4,105,416
210,228 4,315,644
428,971 4,744,615
309,625 5,054,240
354,842 5,409,082
411,167 5,820,249
450,590 6,270,839
211,465 6,482,304

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United States

Spoiler!

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Europe

Spoiler!

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Japan

Spoiler!

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Rest of the World

Spoiler!
Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 13 March 2025

Nintendo Switch 2025 vs. Nintendo Wii 2012

Global

SW1 '25 - Weekly SW1 '25 - Yearly Wii '12 - Weekly

Wii '12 -Yearly

(+/-) Weekly (+/-) Yearly
356,101 356,101 259,581 259,581 + 96,520 + 96,520
166,611 522,712 133,284 392,865 + 33,327 + 129,847
142,752 665,464 111,755 504,620 + 30,997 + 160,844
130,277 795,741 104,264 608,884 + 26,013 + 186,857
124,228 919,969 106,575 715,459 + 17,653 + 204,510
107,096 822,555
109,268 931,823
112,505 1,044,328
88,923 1,133,251
80,818 1,214,069
73,571 1,287,650
71,169 1,358,809
71,853 1,430,662
76,972 1,507,634
65,521 1,573,155
64,984 1,638,139
66,828 1,704,967
70,297 1,775,264
54,581 1,829,845
56,597 1,886,442
57,257 1,943,699
54,597 1,998,296
57,317 2,055,613
52,059 2,107,672
48,574 2,156,246
48,894 2,205,140
51,440 2,256,580
51,731 2,308,311
54,290 2,362,601
58,649 2,421,250
91,117 2,512,367
60,888 2,573,255
59,884 2,633,139
50,881 2,684,020
49,027 2,733,047
44,601 2,777,648
43,694 2,821,342
40,762 2,862,104
42,011 2,904,115
46,606 2,950,721
45,662 2,996,383
54,083 3,050,466
67,135 3,117,601
81,063 3,198,664
106,035 3,304,699
150,032 3,454,731
413,009 4,867,740
212,295 4,080,035
246,286 4,326,321
285,232 4,611,553
323,036 4,934,589
194,435 5,129,024

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United States

Spoiler!

-----------------------------------------

Europe

Spoiler!

-------------------------------------------------------

Japan

Spoiler!

---------------------------

Rest of the World

Spoiler!
Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 13 March 2025

It's good to see your enthusiasm back for another sales rodeo between Nintendo current and past platforms !

Looking at the yearly numbers for the DS '11 Yar on the market, I don't know if the Switch technically has it to match the exact number but doing it would bring it right at the doors of 160M shipped so yes, it'd be good.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

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Switch will for sure outsell Wii's 2012.
Switch's 2025 sales are dependent on several factors
-If Switch gets a price cut
-When Switch 2 launches. A Q3 or Q4 Switch 2 release would probably help Switch a little. Q4 seems unlikely considering we're getting a Direct at the start of Q2.
-How Switch 2 does early on. If Switch 2 launches well before the holiday season and is a disappointment for Nintendo in sales, Switch could sell better than we expect.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 40 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

So, the updates are going to be a bit different this time around.

Since the data is updated monthly instead of weekly, the breakdowns won't be quite as frequent.

What instead will happen is we will go based on the regionals that come in.
For example: We still get weekly Japanese data thanks to Famitsu, so I'll be using them as the reference for the Japan charts.

Then once Circana and Europe data comes in at the end of the month for the US and EU markets, I'll put those in.
Then the Global data usually follows, which is when I'll put the global data in.
Then once the Global, US, EU, and JP data are in, I can use those to calculate and find the ROTW of the world data as well as make the necessary adjustments.

So it'll more than likely be Japan first, then the US and EU, then Global, and finally Rest of the World.



Wman1996 said:

Switch will for sure outsell Wii's 2012.
Switch's 2025 sales are dependent on several factors
-If Switch gets a price cut
-When Switch 2 launches. A Q3 or Q4 Switch 2 release would probably help Switch a little. Q4 seems unlikely considering we're getting a Direct at the start of Q2.
-How Switch 2 does early on. If Switch 2 launches well before the holiday season and is a disappointment for Nintendo in sales, Switch could sell better than we expect.

The only scenario where Switch 2 is a sales disappointment is if it the launch price is too high like $500. I even think $450 would be pushing it. $400 is has been the widely speculated price point, and I think that's just right. If it's $350, that would be fantastic! But unlikely given Switch OLED is currently $350 and that would spell certain death for that model and also severely impact the base $300 model unless Nintendo cuts the price for all Switch 1 models.



Nice to see you're doing this again for the last stretch of the Switch! In case you don't know the Wii part isn't fully filled out like it is for the DS and 3DS. For how the Switch will do somewhat above 3DS level is my guess.

Last edited by Norion - on 26 January 2025

The cumulative/total sales for Wii 2012 seem to be missing here, but VGC says it sold 5.1m; I would expect the Switch to beat that since it looks like it will have the first half of the year or so to itself before it's replaced.

3DS is trickier, as it was much cheaper than Switch at the time and the Switch wasn't BC with its games, so it remained a viable impulse purchase through 2017. If Switch 2 is like $450 or more or the current system gets a price reduction then I can see Switch 2025 taking this.

DS is probably out of reach as it was also dirt cheap at the time.