Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Very interesting constellation now. We have Bernie against 4 establishment candidates Biden, Bloomberg, Butti & Warren. If all of them run to the end they will split the mainstream vote and Bernie will will get a plurality but no absolute majority (Sanders is polling at less than 30%).

The establishment could either unite behind one candidate now and win like SHE won in 2016 against Bernie. Or they declare that a 30% plurality fringe candidate just doesn't cut it and a 70% majority mainstream candidate has to be nominated at the end.



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numberwang said:

Very interesting constellation now. We have Bernie against 4 establishment candidates Biden, Bloomberg, Butti & Warren. If all of them run to the end they will split the mainstream vote and Bernie will will get a plurality but no absolute majority (Sanders is polling at less than 30%).

The establishment could either unite behind one candidate now and win like SHE won in 2016 against Bernie. Or they declare that a 30% plurality fringe candidate just doesn't cut it and a 70% majority mainstream candidate has to be nominated at the end.

He's currently expected to end up with 45% of the delegates (or 1,802 out of the 1886 needed).  If he does well on Super Tuesday, he'll have the majority.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

numberwang said:

Very interesting constellation now. We have Bernie against 4 establishment candidates Biden, Bloomberg, Butti & Warren. If all of them run to the end they will split the mainstream vote and Bernie will will get a plurality but no absolute majority (Sanders is polling at less than 30%).

The establishment could either unite behind one candidate now and win like SHE won in 2016 against Bernie. Or they declare that a 30% plurality fringe candidate just doesn't cut it and a 70% majority mainstream candidate has to be nominated at the end.

That's not exactly how it works.

If some candidates would drop out, then all the remaining candidates will get at least some of their votes. In the case of Warren or Biden, Sanders would actually even get the most votes from them dropping out. Which would make it pretty certain for Bernie to win.

Right now on 538 Bernie has a 47% chance to win, Biden 8%, Bloomberg 3% and everybody else below 1%. But the second highest number is actually no one with 41%, aka a brokered convention. So their best chance is to sit it out until the end and hope that Bernie doesn't pass the necessary threshold so they can choose whom they want to send against Trump. Anybody dropping out would benefit Bernie more than help the chances of any establishment democrat, as it pushes him higher, too.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
numberwang said:

Very interesting constellation now. We have Bernie against 4 establishment candidates Biden, Bloomberg, Butti & Warren. If all of them run to the end they will split the mainstream vote and Bernie will will get a plurality but no absolute majority (Sanders is polling at less than 30%).

The establishment could either unite behind one candidate now and win like SHE won in 2016 against Bernie. Or they declare that a 30% plurality fringe candidate just doesn't cut it and a 70% majority mainstream candidate has to be nominated at the end.

That's not exactly how it works.

If some candidates would drop out, then all the remaining candidates will get at least some of their votes. In the case of Warren or Biden, Sanders would actually even get the most votes from them dropping out. Which would make it pretty certain for Bernie to win.

Right now on 538 Bernie has a 47% chance to win, Biden 8%, Bloomberg 3% and everybody else below 1%. But the second highest number is actually no one with 41%, aka a brokered convention. So their best chance is to sit it out until the end and hope that Bernie doesn't pass the necessary threshold so they can choose whom they want to send against Trump. Anybody dropping out would benefit Bernie more than help the chances of any establishment democrat, as it pushes him higher, too.

Exactly. This is because the idea of fixed voting blocks or lanes is only superficial. People are after all individuals. So an individual might for some reason like Bloomberg and Sanders (maybe because this person hates Trump and thinks these two have the best chance at beating Trump). Such persons exist. It is only more likely that a person exist that likes Warren and Sanders. So Bloomberg dropping out probably would give Sanders less new voters than Warren, but Sanders still would get them. Also we have to consider the people, that stop caring the moment their candidate drops out. They don't vote anymore, which in result is mostly helping the ones in the lead. And that is currently Sanders.



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LurkerJ said:
I hope Bernie wins the primary, and I can't wait to see the establishment media rooting for Trump against Bernie, everyone's jaw will drop. 

Only the beginnings, Trump has kept the status quo and the charade of fake resistance that the dems has been flaunting for 3 years will come to an end once Bernie is the nominee. 



A strange oddity to note about tonight's debate qualifications.

Steyer gained enough early state polls to qualify but not national polls. State polls tend to be much harder to obtain than national. Steyer has now done this 3 times since they started the state poll qualification for Debate 5. No other candidate has qualified this way.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

This is the ugliest debate I've seen. The moderators are absolutely horrible at maintaining control and addressing rebuttals.

This is shit and Republicans have to be loving it.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

This debate is... a thing that exists, I guess.

All the Bloomberg / Sanders slamming seems good for Biden in the upcoming contests.



 

 

 

 

 

Saw this about Bloomberg from June 2016

https://www.salon.com/2020/02/25/leaked-audio-mike-bloomberg-trashes-obama-and-vows-to-defend-the-banks-in-goldman-sachs-speech/

"A healthy banking system that's going to take risks because that's what creates the jobs for everybody. And nobody's willing to say that," he said. "The trouble is, these campaigns in this day and age really are about slogans and not about issues anymore. And in this election you're going to see people are voting and they either love or hate, mostly hate both, but who you hate the least. That's what they're going to vote for. And they're not going to vote on issues."

Bloomberg also compared the rising progressive movement in the Democratic Party to the rise of the far right in Europe.

"The left is arising. The progressive movement is just as scary," he said. "Elizabeth Warren on one side. And whoever you want to pick on the Republicans on the right side?"

Bloomberg also added that he believed 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney could have done a better job as president than Obama, adding that his 2012 endorsement of the president was "backhanded." Bloomberg did not endorse Obama in 2008 when he ran against the late Sen. John McCain"