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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 61.44 Millions as of June 2020)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

Before I begin, I would like to state that there are several factors that are yet to be announced/confirmed that could change the game, such as the console specs, baterry life, games and overall first year lineup, price and so on.Having said that, I will show the logic for my assertion and my beliefs:

With the Nintendo Switch reveal, after what seemed like several decades of speculations, rumors, and butt bets, we were finally shown what the NX, now officially called Nintendo Switch, is like.And as espected, the gaming forums went on meltdown on what the Switch was capable of, what games would be on it, how much power it had and most importantly, if Nintendo continued to be doomed.But the discussion of wether Nintendo would have a success or a bomb on their hand seemed to stay only around the teaser trailer, without taking account on other factors that have been happening in the last couple months.That is why I wanted to make this claim and explain why Nintendo have a good chance of overcoming that challenges ahead of them, and stand victorious.

The first and foremost problem that it needs to overcome is to convince to the overall market(which Ill clasify here as mostly consistent of casual gamers) the value of the Switch, be it by the device power, functionalities or the games, and thus making it atractive for them to buy.How to solve this problem?Well, as I stated at the beginning, there are still several factors that we dont know of, and Nintendo could simply come out and show the greatest launch line-up ever, with the most powerful system of the universe and also being at the same time to most versatile machine in existence.But since we dont know any of these, I will focus on the one aspect we know well enough, which is the mobile/movies/theme parks initiative.It already is a common understanding that Nintendo lost the casual fans it gained with the Wii and to some extent the DS.But that same crowd remembers Nintendo titles, carachters and IPs, be it being introduced to them in the 7th generation, or long before.So having movies, theme parks and mobile games about Mario, Zelda, Metroid and so on would not only increase exponentially Nintendo awareness to the general public, but it would help sell Nintendo products, such as the Switch.And for proof, look no further than Pokemon GO.In July of this year, pokemon GO launched to gigantic success, reaching gigantic download and financial numbers, breaking down any kind of record along its way.But its effects werent only restricted to the smartphone market, but also to their console counterparts, more especifically 3DS and its two pokemon releases.In July, 3DS sales exploded, making it the best selling console that month in the NPD and being up YOY the next months including Semptember.In the software side, pokemon games,which were around 2 or 3 years old, were selling 100k plus each week on US alone.And now, Super Mario Run is bound to release on December, and there is already 20 million users who signed up to be notified at the game release.Couple that with the fact that there are still more mobile games comming, most notably Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem, that Nintendo learned its mistakes with the Wii U and should push for a stronger marketing campain and the overall efficiency of the Nintendo-related ads/commercials of the past year, Nintendos prospect to bring the general public back to its system seems bright.

The second point that Nintendo needs to adress is the overall support for the system, both from the third party and also internal(first party games).One of them seems already resolved out of the gate:The first party support.One of the issues that the Wii U suffered was the frequent drought it had during its lifespan.With the hybrid concept and what we can suppose the fusion of the development teams that would go to each one of their systems(home and portable), Nintendo can pretty much supply the Switch with little third party support.But that still brings up the issue that many people buy console systems because of third party games, such as Call Of Duty, GTA, Fifa, Madden, and many more.But to even that there is a solution.Simply put, the objective of a company is to make money.If Nintendo can pull in enough people in the first year, thorugh the efforts of their strong marketing, be it through normal ads on the Tv/internet/other places or their mobile games and movies, their first party offering and the third party they can muster thorugh their partneship with other companies, they can convince the companies that there is an audience in their system and money to be made, thus assuring third party support, at the very least at a decent level.Even if more demanding games that can run on XOne and PS4 cant run on Switch due to power differences(even though personally I believe Switch will at least get close to XOne, as evidenced by Skyrim remaster running on it), developers will make games more tailored to it, trying to get a piece of the money of the Switch, much like happened to the Wii.(And hopefully with much less shovelware)

And the third and final concern, which is directly linked to my second point:Nintendo NEEDS to nail the Switch first year.For all the positivity that came out of the reveal trailer, there is alot of skepticism around the Switch, and rightfully so.The Wii U was a failure and underdelivered in many aspects, and Nintendo has the reputation of being a good second console, but never as being THE console to have, simply because its offerings, though excellent, lacks in variety.So what gives me so much confidence that we will see a stellar first year for the Switch?First of all, we already have alot of awesome games either confirmed or almost confirmed for the system, those being Breath Of the Wild,a new/enhanced port of Mario Kart and Splatoon, Skyrim, Dragon Quest XI and Sonic 2017, all of which seems more than likely comming in the first year.And the future seems bright too, with a new 3D Mario game, which looks more in vein with Super Mario 64, being in active development for it.Not to mention the number of other Nintendo games that are in development that Nintendo simply didnt talk about(evidenced by the lack in number and quality of Nintendo titles that launched in the last 2 years give or take) and the number of third party companies partnersthat already pledged their support.Even though we all know how that went for the Wii U, we can expect some level of support the first year.But the thing that gives me the most confidence to say that Nintendo wont screw up the launch/first year is the Wii U.The Wii U was a massive failure and one of the reasons it failed was due to its horrible launch and first year lineup.And nintendo knows that.They even went as far to admit that in public.And seeing the great decisions that nintendo has been making this last year, either their mobile initiative, the great ads they have been making,Amiibos in general, or simply being more aware(and admiting) their mistakes, I truly believe they will nail this.

Now, there is alot of more factors to consider, such as OS, online functionality(which also seems that they are going to fix, due to all the evidence this last year with the revamped Nintendo reward program, the employment of Dena to help them with that and so on), and the other ones that I already listed at the beginning of this post.But overall, I think those three points are the most vital ones and if they nail those three, I dont believe they will screw it up with those parts.What are your thoughts?



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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Tagging. I'm reading the whole thing.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

The first impression from internet looks really good. It's nowhere close to what was the Wii U back in 2011, where people didn't even knew was a new console... the youtube trailer is now at over 15 million views in only 3 days, already half of PS4 in almost 4 years.

 

Basically Switch is what the Wii U should have been. Switch will combine the fanbase of handhelds and home, and about Nintendo handhelds, those always sold incredible well. Even if "3DS is a flop" for some people, that thing is going to sells over 70 million lifetime. And won't sell more than that only for the simple reason NX is coming, cause as for now, sales of 3DS are incredible great for a 6 years old system. Pokémon GO showed how there are still many people which are going to buy an handhelds, 3DS is right now selling way more than what was selling in the lasts 2 years, it's basically get a second short life after Pokémon Go, and before Switch will release, it will have an amazing holidays with Pokémon moon and Sun and the release of Mario Run, which will boost by a big margin the Super Mario interest on people, like Pokémon GO did with Pokémon.

 

When Switch will launch in March 2017, the two biggest Nintendo IP ever (Pokémon and Mario) will be stronger than ever, and there is Zelda Breath of the wild too at launch, which has a chance to become the biggest Zelda game ever, or at least chart in the TOP 3 after Ocarina and Twilight Princess.

With a right price ($250 my guess), i have almost no doubt it will have a big launch.  After that we'll see, much will depend on the third party support, the general line up, the lifetime of the console ecc...



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

I agree with the thread title, and agree with the stipulations in the first paragraph, but I'm going to read the whole thing, so tagging.



Well, this is new.

Read.

You need more paragraphs. Might add mini-headlines for each point to make it clear which paragraphs belong to which point.

All three points somehow go back to first party support and I think it's premature to call that a win already. All of Nintendo's software output going to one platform is an improvement, but at the same time the effect is going to be diminished because development times and required manpower for each project will go up to different degrees.

More importantly though, all those games won't mean much if Nintendo pumps out games that don't attract a broader audience. One of the usual fallacies is in your post, "future looks bright because of 3D Mario" or something like that. 3D Mario has never brought in a broader audience, so that's not going to be the solution. But the reason we have seen that game and not something else is because the preview trailer was tailor-made for the forum population. In that sense, Nintendo has made yet another good decision, but the truly important things have yet to be announced, making the prospects of Switch major speculation.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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TL DR version of what Nautilus just said:

 

+ movies/themepark/mobile games, helps sell (the lost) casuals (from DS/Wii) on Mario & Zelda.

+ Third Party seems slightly better than Wii U, and unified Games library means less 3rd party needed to sustain device.

+ Lack of important 3rd party titles needs to be overcome with explosive sales start early in generation, to make Switch seem more attractive to develope for.

+ First year is important, trailer did well. Needs launch titles to repair broken brand trust by Wii U.

+ Wii U failed due to bad 1st year titles.

+ Dena will help them make a better OS, more onpair with the competitions OS's.



35 million at best. Its pretty save to say that.
The Nvidia Tegra k1 and even the x1 (which isnt evend designed for mobile usage) both are already was inferior to the market leading ships made by Apple, Samsung and Snapdragon. Just check those benchmarks.

So EVEN if the Switch concept will work, Android and Apple will adopt very very soon and will deliver similar solutions (controller addons) to their smartphones and tablets. So people will be able to play skyrim on an iPhone as well (third party obviosly will also port those games to that huge install bases when they are doing a arm port for the switch anyway and its beeing succesfull).

So in the end people will just use their phones which are often as capable as the switch. In some years even WAY more capable.
Only reason to get the switch will be nintendos first party games. Only reason to get the wii u was that as well. We all know how that turned out.

 

I predict 25 mio units sold Lifetime.



Holy Wall of Text....

Im not sure how you got from those points you make to 100m sold though.

My take:
1) themeparks/movies/mobile games effect wont be that big.
2) third party is looking to be much the same as the Wii U level was.
3) Yes getting strong sales early makes helps get 3rd party on board.
4) Even though the Switch trailer was good, its too early to say it will have a good 1st year.
5) Wii U failed to sell because of more than just bad 1st year and games at start.
6) Dena is a unknown factor... not sure how big a impact a better OS makes on Nintendo sales.

 

If Nintendo plays everything perfectly I could see them doing 70-80m or so.

I dont think Switch ever reaches 100m.



Asedebck said:

35 million at best. Its pretty save to say that.
The Nvidia Tegra k1 and even the x1 (which isnt evend designed for mobile usage) both are already was inferior to the market leading ships made by Apple, Samsung and Snapdragon. Just check those benchmarks.

So EVEN if the Switch concept will work, Android and Apple will adopt very very soon and will deliver similar solutions (controller addons) to their smartphones and tablets. So people will be able to play skyrim on an iPhone as well (third party obviosly will also port those games to that huge install bases when they are doing a arm port for the switch anyway and its beeing succesfull).

So in the end people will just use their phones which are often as capable as the switch. In some years even WAY more capable.
Only reason to get the switch will be nintendos first party games. Only reason to get the wii u was that as well. We all know how that turned out.

 

I predict 25 mio units sold Lifetime.

Maybe I should make a prediction as well:

I don't like the way you think, so I'll get you banned real hard before this week is over.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

It won't beat 3DS. It might crack 40m. Even that might be lucky. Trying to convince people that a 720p tablet is worth $399 (rumored) will be the hardest sell Nintendo ever does. It won't have access to ios or android. If you look at the reveal video it doesn't show any functionality outside of video games. And according to some here, it won't even have a touchscreen and you will be required to use the controller nubs to navigate the OS.

So why would the average consumer buy a 720p tablet with no touchscreen at such a high price?