Thanks for the feedback.My first time making a post this big, so I certainly still need to get better hang of it.

Regarding Nintendo software output, not every game needs to be at the level of a Breath of the Wild title.Nintendo could very well make smaller games like Captain Toad sprinkled here and there, to either fill the space betwenn the big titles or to try new ideas without having to waste resources and manpower in something that could potentially backfire, like Starfox Zero.Splatoon is a clear example of that.Smaller in budget, completed roughly in a year, but it maintains the quality Nintendo is known for.

And the part about the new Mario 3D, I should have explained better.Its more of an statement of that there is still great things to come outside of the launch lineup(i dont believe the Mario game will be ready for launch) to help further convince people that support will not simply drop.Of course that Mario alone is not enough to show that.Certainly nintendo will announce games,before the system is out, that will launch launching in about a 2 year window after the initial launch.Mario is simply the one game from them that Im fairly sure its not going to be in the launch window or anywhere near(Im assuming holiday 2017 is the earliest it could launch), hence the example.

I don't see it happening.

Nintendo's portables are struggling to sell even 15 million a year now, that's just a cold hard fact. Life in the tablet/smartphone world is not so easy for Nintendo.

The other thing is NS doesn't really offer a new way to play. It's the same games but you can just play them outside the house now. That's not anything new, the Wii was something different and legitimately aimed at an audience (a huge one) that no one was making any games for.

This is basically just a better version of the Wii U ... look at those threads on this board about a Wii U redesign ... people wanted a sleeker tablet, maybe the oppurtunity to integrate the chip into the tablet ... well I mean, voila ... there's your NS. 

Also the 3DS is struggling to get to 60 million even with pricing in the $129.99 range for several years now, every Nintendo franchise just about, etc. I don't think it you added TV dock mode to the 3DS it would magically sell another 40 million units. NS will probably have to be $250 or more for a while, it's way bigger than a 3DS, and has some battery limitations. 

Barring a software breakthrough like a new IP such as Pokemon coming out of nowhere and driving hardware sales, I think NS will do OK. Better than the GameCube and certainly Wii U, but lower than 3DS. Lots of factors to play out but I'd say 40-50 million is more realistic, which isn't bad. No one would call the Super NES a failure. If it's lower than 40 million, then Nintendo screwed up or the market for tablets just cannot be stopped. Whether or not it can run Android apps will have a big impact on how it sells too, with Android apps they can sell more because it can double as a real tablet. Without that they are going to have a much more uphill climb. 

To your point number 5) I know there were more reasons to the Wii U failure, but if I were to list them all, the text would be bigger.And this point in particular was more revelant to the point I am trying to make.

And another thing that I should have mentioned in the text, is that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they could easily convince the combined instaoll base of the 3DS+ Vita to the Switch, since as a handheld it is very impressive and should get as much support as those devices got.I mean, Nintendo could screw up with baterry life, but Im giving them the benefit of the doubt here.

First of all, I really dont believe the price of the basic model, which is the one that will really count, is going to be that expensive.I think we are seeing a 300 price tag here.And there are rumors to back this up, as Laura Kate(I think it was her and I think thats her name), the one that has been leaking stuff lately, has said that the basic model would be 300 and the "premium" model would be 400.I assume premium here comes with more acessories and maybe a game or two.

And do you really think it wont have apps or other functionalitys, like amazon, netflix youtube and stuff likfe that?I mean, if even the Wii U had them, then Switch will have them at least.As for the touchscreen, that could go either way, but again, there are rumors claiming that there is, by the same person I mentioned.

In the end, itys all a prediction, a guess.And if it wasnt a bold one, it would be exactly a prediction right?

Well yes, but it wouldnt be fun otherwise!

The problem with the smartphone userbase is a very small percentage are willing to pay for games, let alone premium $60 games. Not every game is Minecraft, and with game budgets increasing it will be really hard to see AAA games on smartphones anytime soon.

It's also very arbitrary of you to ignore the Wii, another console with only Nintendo first party games. Heck, so many people complaining about the NS being a handheld device, we should compare it with the 3DS, which has fantastic 3rd party support, not Wii U.

Well, as I said and many others here, there is still much to learn and I still think Nintendo is holding many interesting things about the Switch behind the curtain.But since the Wii, people grew accustomed to the idea that unless Nintendo comes up with a strange fun new way to play and its not a handheld, its going to fail(or not be as successful).I think you dont need to look no further than the PS4.For all te talk about power and all, compared to a high end PC, PS4 is nothing incredible.It plays games normally, has a normal controller, and even have a paywall for multiplayer, which I find ridiculous.But it succeded.Why?Because of a string of oportunities and right decisions.I think the same can be applied to Nintendo.Having a much more atractive lineup of games than the other two, if it makes the right decisions, and be active on getting deals, on marketing and such, i dont see why it dosent stand a chance at being very successful.

Nintendo is not Sony. Sony has a (well deserved) reputation with the "dude bros/jock gamer" crowd, Nintendo has a very poor reputation with that crowd. 

Plus Sony worked their *ass* off to make sure the Playstation 3 recovered and finished very strong. Nintendo just let the Wii U die on a whimper. 

There is still a market for a high end home game console, but for a portable? Eh. That's going to be a tougher sell in this day and age where kids have tablets from very young ages. 

Like Ive said before, I would be disappointed if it does less than 30M. Hope it does well.

Calling numbers now it is difficult, but with a solid lineup, I belive 50 millons is not out of the question... Beyond that... It has to be a perfect storm tbh.