(Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

[Nautilus]

JRPGfan said:

Holy Wall of Text....

Im not sure how you got from those points you make to 100m sold though.

My take:
1) themeparks/movies/mobile games effect wont be that big.
2) third party is looking to be much the same as the Wii U level was.
3) Yes getting strong sales early makes helps get 3rd party on board.
4) Even though the Switch trailer was good, its too early to say it will have a good 1st year.
5) Wii U failed to sell because of more than just bad 1st year and games at start.
6) Dena is a unknown factor... not sure how big a impact a better OS makes on Nintendo sales.

 

If Nintendo plays everything perfectly I could see them doing 70-80m or so.

I dont think Switch ever reaches 100m.

To your point number 5) I know there were more reasons to the Wii U failure, but if I were to list them all, the text would be bigger.And this point in particular was more revelant to the point I am trying to make.

And another thing that I should have mentioned in the text, is that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they could easily convince the combined instaoll base of the 3DS+ Vita to the Switch, since as a handheld it is very impressive and should get as much support as those devices got.I mean, Nintendo could screw up with baterry life, but Im giving them the benefit of the doubt here.