Holy Wall of Text....

Im not sure how you got from those points you make to 100m sold though.

My take:
1) themeparks/movies/mobile games effect wont be that big.
2) third party is looking to be much the same as the Wii U level was.
3) Yes getting strong sales early makes helps get 3rd party on board.
4) Even though the Switch trailer was good, its too early to say it will have a good 1st year.
5) Wii U failed to sell because of more than just bad 1st year and games at start.
6) Dena is a unknown factor... not sure how big a impact a better OS makes on Nintendo sales.

 

If Nintendo plays everything perfectly I could see them doing 70-80m or so.

I dont think Switch ever reaches 100m.