(Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

[Nautilus]

Before I begin, I would like to state that there are several factors that are yet to be announced/confirmed that could change the game, such as the console specs, baterry life, games and overall first year lineup, price and so on.Having said that, I will show the logic for my assertion and my beliefs:

With the Nintendo Switch reveal, after what seemed like several decades of speculations, rumors, and butt bets, we were finally shown what the NX, now officially called Nintendo Switch, is like.And as espected, the gaming forums went on meltdown on what the Switch was capable of, what games would be on it, how much power it had and most importantly, if Nintendo continued to be doomed.But the discussion of wether Nintendo would have a success or a bomb on their hand seemed to stay only around the teaser trailer, without taking account on other factors that have been happening in the last couple months.That is why I wanted to make this claim and explain why Nintendo have a good chance of overcoming that challenges ahead of them, and stand victorious.

The first and foremost problem that it needs to overcome is to convince to the overall market(which Ill clasify here as mostly consistent of casual gamers) the value of the Switch, be it by the device power, functionalities or the games, and thus making it atractive for them to buy.How to solve this problem?Well, as I stated at the beginning, there are still several factors that we dont know of, and Nintendo could simply come out and show the greatest launch line-up ever, with the most powerful system of the universe and also being at the same time to most versatile machine in existence.But since we dont know any of these, I will focus on the one aspect we know well enough, which is the mobile/movies/theme parks initiative.It already is a common understanding that Nintendo lost the casual fans it gained with the Wii and to some extent the DS.But that same crowd remembers Nintendo titles, carachters and IPs, be it being introduced to them in the 7th generation, or long before.So having movies, theme parks and mobile games about Mario, Zelda, Metroid and so on would not only increase exponentially Nintendo awareness to the general public, but it would help sell Nintendo products, such as the Switch.And for proof, look no further than Pokemon GO.In July of this year, pokemon GO launched to gigantic success, reaching gigantic download and financial numbers, breaking down any kind of record along its way.But its effects werent only restricted to the smartphone market, but also to their console counterparts, more especifically 3DS and its two pokemon releases.In July, 3DS sales exploded, making it the best selling console that month in the NPD and being up YOY the next months including Semptember.In the software side, pokemon games,which were around 2 or 3 years old, were selling 100k plus each week on US alone.And now, Super Mario Run is bound to release on December, and there is already 20 million users who signed up to be notified at the game release.Couple that with the fact that there are still more mobile games comming, most notably Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem, that Nintendo learned its mistakes with the Wii U and should push for a stronger marketing campain and the overall efficiency of the Nintendo-related ads/commercials of the past year, Nintendos prospect to bring the general public back to its system seems bright.

The second point that Nintendo needs to adress is the overall support for the system, both from the third party and also internal(first party games).One of them seems already resolved out of the gate:The first party support.One of the issues that the Wii U suffered was the frequent drought it had during its lifespan.With the hybrid concept and what we can suppose the fusion of the development teams that would go to each one of their systems(home and portable), Nintendo can pretty much supply the Switch with little third party support.But that still brings up the issue that many people buy console systems because of third party games, such as Call Of Duty, GTA, Fifa, Madden, and many more.But to even that there is a solution.Simply put, the objective of a company is to make money.If Nintendo can pull in enough people in the first year, thorugh the efforts of their strong marketing, be it through normal ads on the Tv/internet/other places or their mobile games and movies, their first party offering and the third party they can muster thorugh their partneship with other companies, they can convince the companies that there is an audience in their system and money to be made, thus assuring third party support, at the very least at a decent level.Even if more demanding games that can run on XOne and PS4 cant run on Switch due to power differences(even though personally I believe Switch will at least get close to XOne, as evidenced by Skyrim remaster running on it), developers will make games more tailored to it, trying to get a piece of the money of the Switch, much like happened to the Wii.(And hopefully with much less shovelware)

And the third and final concern, which is directly linked to my second point:Nintendo NEEDS to nail the Switch first year.For all the positivity that came out of the reveal trailer, there is alot of skepticism around the Switch, and rightfully so.The Wii U was a failure and underdelivered in many aspects, and Nintendo has the reputation of being a good second console, but never as being THE console to have, simply because its offerings, though excellent, lacks in variety.So what gives me so much confidence that we will see a stellar first year for the Switch?First of all, we already have alot of awesome games either confirmed or almost confirmed for the system, those being Breath Of the Wild,a new/enhanced port of Mario Kart and Splatoon, Skyrim, Dragon Quest XI and Sonic 2017, all of which seems more than likely comming in the first year.And the future seems bright too, with a new 3D Mario game, which looks more in vein with Super Mario 64, being in active development for it.Not to mention the number of other Nintendo games that are in development that Nintendo simply didnt talk about(evidenced by the lack in number and quality of Nintendo titles that launched in the last 2 years give or take) and the number of third party companies partnersthat already pledged their support.Even though we all know how that went for the Wii U, we can expect some level of support the first year.But the thing that gives me the most confidence to say that Nintendo wont screw up the launch/first year is the Wii U.The Wii U was a massive failure and one of the reasons it failed was due to its horrible launch and first year lineup.And nintendo knows that.They even went as far to admit that in public.And seeing the great decisions that nintendo has been making this last year, either their mobile initiative, the great ads they have been making,Amiibos in general, or simply being more aware(and admiting) their mistakes, I truly believe they will nail this.

Now, there is alot of more factors to consider, such as OS, online functionality(which also seems that they are going to fix, due to all the evidence this last year with the revamped Nintendo reward program, the employment of Dena to help them with that and so on), and the other ones that I already listed at the beginning of this post.But overall, I think those three points are the most vital ones and if they nail those three, I dont believe they will screw it up with those parts.What are your thoughts?