Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2015 predictions thread

December is a 5 weeks month

 

Important release:

     

 

Possible hardware impact:

- PS4 temporaney price drop ( $299 )
- XB1 temporaney price drop ( $299 )
- Wii U bundle XenoBlade Chronicles X ( $299)

 

Last month:

[PS4] 1,539,000
[XB1] 1,296,000
[WIU] 240,000

 

Last year:

[XB1] 1,297,000
[PS4] 1,065,000
[WIU] 575,000

 

2015 predictions thread

 

JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober; November



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

Around the Network

[PS4] 1,700,000
[XB1] 1,400,000
[WIU] 600,000



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

I'm just hoping that Xenoblade will be in the top 10.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PS4: 1750k
XBO: 1400k
Wii U: 500k



[PS4] 1,500,000
[XB1] 1,300,000
[WIU] 530,000

May adjust in ~2 weeks, we'll see.



Around the Network

This is really going to be tough. The range could vary by a notable degree depending on the effects of the PS4 $300 deals ending in the final number of days preceding Xmas.

It seems that the X1 $299 deal coming back online (in a kind of random and oddly marketed manner) might have been a hasty reaction from MS to seeing the brutal effectiveness of Sony's $299 post-BF deal.

Given that, I wonder if Sony will extend the deals to the 26th or the 31st. Why not, right? I mean the whole point of the $299 special is to really get some install base cooking, what benefit is there from selling a reduced number of consoles in the final 5 or 6 days before Xmas at a higher price? Perhaps there's some psychological or strategic reasoning that's beyond me at present. For that matter, these lengthy $299 sales that exist post-BF are serious enough that I think it actually may be a mistake for either company to bump back to $349, or at least not beyond February. Jan/Feb are historically crap for sales anyway, but March/April get some respectable boost from income tax time, a prime opportunity to get some hype.



PS4: 1 Billion
XBO: 1.2 Fantazillion
WiiU > (PS4+XBO)^pi
0



[PS4] 1,700,000
[XB1] 1,150,000
[3DS] 750.000
[WIU] 660,000
[Vita] 300.000



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

PS4 - 2050K
XB1 - 1625K
WiiU - 400K

And here is why.
1. 5 week month
2. Contrary to popular belief Dec is still bigger than Nov.
3. Price. Last month both consoles were 299 for a total of 3 days of NDP. Remember Cyber Monday was not counted in Nov. In Dec the PS4 will be 299 (with more bundle choices) for a total of 16 days. XB1 too.
4. Star Wars. As the hype builds for TFA we will see more and more SW fans (but casual gamers) getting caught in the hype and impulse buying.

I feel safe with this prediction. I guess it was my median. I could actually sales being a tad higher or a tad lower.



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

[PS4] 1.6m
[X1] 1.42m
[Wii U] 510k