As most of you know, MS has stated on several occasions that they have full confidence that they will be able to claim the #1 spot for home console sales this year. Some believe that MS has one Hell of a secret strategy ready to put in place that will propel them forward and achieve that goal. Here I just want to run a few numbers by VGC and show why I think it is now IMPOSSIBLE for the 360 to pass the PS3 this year, as well as put up a poll to see what you guys think (I'm also bored ). Also, here is a link to Seece's thread where he intends to update the OP with the new weekly numbers/gap: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=135202&page=1#
Well, let's look at the facts up to now, first. If we include this weeks numbers (I'll use Media Create numbers for Japan), we have the PS3 at 7,910,952 and 360 at 6,605,890 for 2011, for a gap of 1,305,062. There are 10 more weeks of sales for the whole of 2011, which means that from now until the end of Dec the 360 has to outsell the PS3 by 130,506 each and every week. The last fact is that sales take quite a dip after Christmas week in America, which is illustrated when the PS3 outsold the 360 the last week of Dec 2010 by ~81K (after the new adjustments, it is now by ~102K). While I still think that the PS3 will repeat that this year, just to be "fair", I'll say that the 360 will tie the PS3 that week. That effectively decreases the number of sales weeks to 9, which means the 360 now has to outsell the PS3 by 145,007 a week.
Now, for speculation. Looking at those numbers, it looks like its going to be EXTREMELY difficult for MS to pull this off. It also doesn't look like the 360 is going to start outselling the PS3 for at least 2 more weeks (MW3 release), which shortens the sales weeks to 7. This increases the amount the 360 has to outsell the PS3 to 186,437 a week. I have to say, this went from extremely difficult to IMPOSSIBLE. To comare it to last year, during those 7 weeks I'm speaking of , the 360 was able to outsell the PS3 by ~837K, or ~120K per week (after the new adjustments, it is now ~805K or ~115K per week). Keep in mind, last year we saw the HUGE launch of Kinect, Halo: Reach, and the new 360 Slim. This year, I don't see anything that equals one of those, let alone all three combined.
So, how does my analysis look? Am I right? Am I wrong?
Numbers MS Needs To At Least Tie The PS3 For 2011:
Keep in mind that for the weekly numbers I am not counting the last week of Dec, as the PS3 will most likely outsell the 360 like it did in '07, '09, and '10. This is due to American sales declining quite a bit after Christmas. So I will treat the last week as a tie.
As of week ending Oct 22nd - 7,911,163(PS3) - 6,606,293(360) = 1,304,870
As of week ending Oct 29th - 8,778,992(PS3) - 7,242,745(360) = 1,536,247 or ~192K over the PS3 for the next 8 weeks
As of week ending Nov 5th - 9,129,484(PS3) - 7,520,482(360) = 1,609,022 or ~230K over the PS3 for the next 7 weeks
As of week ending Nov 12th - 9,519,074(PS3) - 8,025,387(360) = 1,493,687 or ~249K over the PS3 for the next 6 weeks
As of week ending Nov 19th - 9,878,175(PS3) - 8,441,031(360) = 1,437,144 or ~287K over the PS3 for the next 5 weeks
As of week ending Nov 26th - 10,685,643(PS3) - 9,688,395(360) = 997,248 or ~249K over the PS3 for the next 4 weeks
As of week ending Dec 3rd - 11,196,131(PS3) - 10,383,951(360) = 812,180 or ~271K over the PS3 for the next 3 weeks
As of week ending Dec 10th - 11,958,663(PS3) - 11,152,898(360) = 805,765 or ~403K over the PS3 for the next 2 weeks
As of week ending Dec 17th - 12,879,641(PS3) - 12,317,609(360) = 562,032 over the PS3 for next week
As of week ending Dec 24th - 13,812,570(PS3) - 13,583,062(360) = 229,508
As of week ending Dec 31st - 14,435,249(PS3) - 14,133,949(360) = 301,300