At the moment there may be no space left for a fourth home-console manufacturer. But the market is growing. Here in germany consoles reach for the first time a bigger audience. China, India and Korea may become also console-markets for the future. I think in the next generation the market can support a fourth home-console.
But I don't see who could enter. Maybe a company from the new countries, a chinese, indian or korean company. I don't see any of the one named here to enter the home-console-market (handhelds are another point):
* Sega/Sammy don't have the cash-reserves and it will be suicide to take the risk making a new home-console. They don't can support a console with exclusives, like Nintendo can.* EA cannot make a own console. The impact of making their sport-series exclusive will be big for a console, but it will don't happen for two reasons. First they loose their contracts with the leagues, if they make their games exclusive. Second: they possibly (!) make the winning consoles this way, but they lose the cash-return for all the multiplats. Other companys will fill the hole in sport-games with their own attempts on other consoles. Konami will be happy: Pro Evolution Soccer will be the #1-soccer-game.
* Square/Enix: They have big game-series, but I don't see the flow of normal/simple games to support their console.
* Toshiba, other hardware companies, a partnership: I think Microsoft will be happy to make a partnership on hardware. They are not so much interested in selling the console, but in control of the homes. Why should other hardware-companies take any risks, if they simply could partner up with Microsoft?
* Apple: Apple produces no games at the moment, they have to build up or buy some game-creators. They could make a good console, but with nearly no games. And in console-gaming you have to work with third-parties. Nothing apple often does.
Handhelds are another thing. We have only two handhelds at the moment, and they have nearly completely different markets. PSP is a multimedia-device with ghaming capabilities. Who wants to watch movies or listen to music on the go will not buy a DS. DS on the other hand concentrate on gaming and catches also the casual- and so called non-gamers. Language-courses and cooking-courses - nothing the PSP has to offer. In the handheld-market is very much space over for a new competitor. As before, some for us unknown chinese/indian/korean company may enter. Or the usual suspects:
* Microsoft: To offer a addition to their home-console and reach bigger audiences with their franchises. Halo portable? Viva Pinatas in the wild?* Apple: An addition or extension to the I-Phone or I-Pod to give a gaming-plattform.
* Any phone-producer: A combination of handheld and cell-phone would be great. Possibly Sony makes the next PSP also a Sony-Erricson-phone. Other big phone-producers may also extend their phone(s) to a gaming platform. Maybe many producers do it together. Thinnk of GAG - Google Android Gaming.
