Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[XtremeBG]

Norion said:

I still don't get why you're so sure it'll decline significantly more in November+December and the 2nd half of the year in general than it has for the year overall so far. I can accept the possibility of it failing to reach 5m in a worst cast scenario but there's no way it ends up closer to 4m than 5m by the end of the year so it's not gonna finish around 4m. For this month College Football 25 is coming out today and there's indications that it's gonna sell some consoles in the US so July could be a relatively decent month for the Xbox Series this year.

I fear from that happening. I can't be sure 100% of course. I can't see the future. I fear one brand I like and want to succeed, to fail.

And for the pure numbers, I look at the whole picture. How it peaked in 2022, how it is only going down from there, and how much down is this year, and how every next month is a disaster and fail. How XBSX sells 50k or 60k per week (which is the sales level for a console when it's last gen system and 2 years have passed since it's next gen system came out. And how this level of sales often lead to 3/4/5M sales for the year (depending on the holidays and if it sustain sales level through out the year or not). I will be somewhat happy if XBSX can reach 6M for the year (because ultimately I want to sell much more than 6M, but for the position it is 6M will still be good enough) but at 1.5M half the year I can't see that happening. Other than that we now have the june weeks data and it only confirms the sales pace is continuing with those 15-18k per week numbers.

Also about that 30% drop you talking about so much. I just checked, and from the start of the year every single month XBSX has been down in Europe by 40 and 50%. This is on the monthly articles for Europe. The one for the Americas, is little more different, there is 25% down, there is 45% down there is 30% down. So US sales in general are keeping little better level of drops than Europe. The "other" regions I don't know, and japans is weak as always. So Europe is very bad, and the drops there are 40 and 50% all over the place every month this year. US is 50/50 however with the latest very low sales of barely 100k per month there I really doubt it will go above that. And June and September last year did 250 and 310k there. I can't see this year US sales getting to more than half of those numbers, so they can meet that famous 30% drop. With sales barely hitting 100k per month lately I doubt XBSX will somewhat boost itself up to more than 130k and 160k for september. So drops of more than 30% for US are coming very soon. The other months have been around 200k or more, so the drops there will again be close to 50%. I can't see XBSX simply boost itself from nothing. The boost that is coming is the holidays. Till then we should pray there is no drop from 200k per month WW.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 19 July 2024