| IcaroRibeiro said: Now backing to the topic that spike this whole discussion: Some people (like myself), believe: a) Smaller price leads to higher sales (Fundamental market truth for almost all kind of products) b) Dread has a standard price tag, data show us most of Nintendo B-list games stop selling after some time because the high price trag c) Dread (any non-evergreen Nintendo game for that matter) would sell better if the price was lower d) Nintendo won't price cut Metroid because they keep their prices the standard ---->>> And thus, our forecast is 2 million give or take |
I think I have to say something about this too:
a) This is often assumed, but in reality the picture is more complicated. Basically if people want X, they have a price Y that they are willing to pay. If the price is above Y they abstain, if it is below, they get it. Now, not everyone has the same price idea, but there is some distribution, usually a normal distribution. So there is a region of prices close to each other, that is the threshold for many people at once. Cutting the price inside this region does a lot for sales. But if you are outside that region, it doesn't do a lot.
We can see that. There are price-cuts that do basically nothing for sales. Many games get pricecuts after initial sales, still initially they moved the most. So the question if a price cut works is really a question about the distribution of potential customers on the price-expectation curve.
Now, other factors also influence sales obviously. You claim, that being 2D reduces sales or moves the price-expectation curve. Without proof actually. If we look at Metroid sales in the past, we can see, that the initial 2D Metroid and the initial 3D Metroid (Metroid Prime) sold substantially more than later entries in their series. Metroid Prime sold similar to the original Metroid, about 100K more. Every other Metroid Prime title sold less than every 2D mainline Metroid. Yes: the 3D-entries sold *less*, not more. So your claim, that being 2D will hold back Metroids sales are completely unfounded, historical data seems to point in a different direction.
Actually we see this with other series too. Mario Odyssey has absolutely great sales, but do you know which Marios sold even more? New Super Mario Bros, NSMB Wii and the original Super Mario Bros. Yes, Mario Odyssey was only outsold by 2D-entries. The claim that people see lower value in 2D-entries doesn't hold if confronted with sales data.
b) Because of the price-tag? How well does the price-cutting help sales of non-Nintendo games? Do you have data, that they sold on better legs than Nintendo's B-tier because of price-cuts? This seems like an unfounded claim.
c) Again, an unfounded claim.
d) Yeah, they do. Still often have better legs than many non-Nintendo games. Although I think the legs of a game depend more on it's genre than being Nintendo or not. Minecraft has great legs.
I agree with your conclusion about the 2 million sales. That is a reasonable expectation. But I disagree, that the sales could be substantially higher than that with a lower price-tag. In reality this seems to be the size of the Metroidvania-niche. Ori is reported to sold 2 million. Castlevania seems to have a sales ceiling of 1.4 million. MegaMan one of 1.5 million. Bloodstained sold past 1 million copies. Hollow Knight sold absolute bonkers 2.8 million, in line with the original Metroid. So yes, 1-2 million seems a normal for a Metroidvania, 3 million seems to be a ceiling only few entries came close, including the original Metroid and Hollow Knight. But it seems price doesn't influence this result. Because these games in question have very differing prices. Quality though does. We still have to see how Metroid Dread lands on the quality scale, although looking at the trailer it seems good. But if the game has for instance frame-rate issues or some gameplay issues, that might hold back sales far more than 2D or the price.
Also, you said (about Link's Awakening):
"Ok, I will grant you it was indeed a silly expectation because my lack of understand that people who liked BOTW has no interest in 2D Zelda;"
No, the fact that LA was a remake instead of a new game has nothing to do with it. It is all about 2D vs. 3D. Also BOITW has outsold also every 3D-entry. That is because BOTW is an amazing and outstanding game, nothing else.
"How many 2D metroidvanias sold 3 million in a single SKU? How many times a 2D Metroid surpassed 3 million?"
I listed it above: no Metroidvania has sold past 3 million ever. And no 2D Metroid. But you know what: also no 3D Metroid surpassed 3 million. As I showed above, 2D Metroids sell better than 3D ones, and 2D Marios sell better than 3D ones. So maybe Nintendo should sell Metroid Prime 4 at a budget price. As obviously people do like 2D more than 3D and are more willing to buy 2D games (at least in platformers). 
