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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Number 3 is pretty much guaranteed.

As for number 2, Nintendo hasn't announced much during the pandemic but instead said that many things were in the works, so I guess we'll get a nice load of game announcement at their E3 presentation this year.

And about Number 1, does it really? 3 Reasons why I think this doesn't have to be:

  1. If you include the inflation, $149.99 would be more comparable to the cheapest PS2 price, so let's set this as a more realistic bar. But even then,
  2. Did the PS2 and DS really sold that many consoles at that price tag to make much of a difference? I very much doubt it.
  3. The much cheaper Lite gets outsold 4:1 on a normal, non-supply limited day in Japan by the $100 more expensive base model, and I'm sure the rest of the world have similar ratios. So I think the value proposition is much more important than just the raw price.

I agree (with the bold).  Furthermore, I've changed my mind on Mario Kart 9.  I used to think it wouldn't come to Switch.  But the Splatoon 3 announcement made me think again.  If Nintendo is bringing 2 Splatoon games to the same platform, then I don't see why they wouldn't bring Mario Kart 9.  In general, all of those people who said, "Nintendo has already fired all of their big guns" didn't realize that Nintendo is reloading and is firing off a lot of those big guns again.

I am not so sure about refiring the big guns. Yes, Splatoon 3 will sell a lot, mostly to people already having Splatoon 2. This will make Nintendo a shitload of money, and that is the goal for this release, but it will not sell a lot of Switches, as this games targets users already owning one. This is the main thing: sequels on the same platform do sell well and as they reuse effort from the previous game are cheaper, so they have more potential for higher profit. But they are less helpful to sell hardware. That is why 3rd-parties do that many sequels: they want money but aren't in the business to sell consoles.

I am unsure though about Mario Kart 9. While wildly successful, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is a port/remaster/remake (whatever you like to call it). That usually has not the same sales potential. Now looking at the sales of MK8, this doesn't seem to apply here, so I am unsure how much new Switches a Mario Kart 9 might be able to sell.

In the same vein I see some Switch moving potential in a true new 2D Zelda. Metroid was never too big a series, but some Switches might be moved with that as well.

But there is one big hitter, that can move a lot of Switches which Nintendo still hasn't tapped into. That is a new Wii Sports. People tend to disregard it's success, as it was a pack-in with Wii. But looking at Wii Sports Resort, that sold 30M. And not for the Wii Motion Plus, which was supported by like three other games and could be bought without the game. A proper new decently made Wii Sports Resort could easily sell 30M again. And I see half of them selling to new Switch owners, to people that haven't owned a game console since the Wii. And they could even give Wii Sports the Ring Fit treatment, which wasn't just a new Wii Fit, but something more. In the last time I felt like a Switch Sports got less likely, but then Miitopia happened and now I don't know.



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