| Runa216 said: Got bored. Calculated how many exclusives the PS4, Switch, and Xbox One had between the Switch's launch in 2017 and now, right before the next generation consoles come out. These numbers are ever so slightly skewed, as some PS4 exclusives such as FFXII the Zodiac Age and Nier automata ended up coming out on Xbox/Switch, but the same can be said for Ori and Cuphead coming out on Switch/PS4. These numbers are totals for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. Here were the rules I used, fair and equal across the board: 1 - The games needed to be console or brand exclusive. PC or handheld ports didn't disqualify them. 2 - The games needed to have 20 reviews on GameRankings or Metacritic. 3 - The games needed to have a 75 or higher to be considered. 4 - The games were only considered for that year. Not disqualified if on another console later years. And the final tallies for games with 75+ scores between 2017 and today were: PS4 - 60 games total Switch - 50 games total XBO - 6 games total No, this is not me taking the piss. This is me actively trying to twist things to give Xbox a fighting chance (not disqualifying PC games, keeping it on even if it later came to other consoles, etc), but doing that for them helped the others even more. The moral of the story is: This is why I'm so critical of Xbox. Y'all can talk all you want about future potential, but Sony and Nintendo are the ones going into holiday 2020 with all the momentum. And keep in mind, Sony has a handful more games coming out on PS5 that are likely to reach that threshold of 75+ scores and 20+ reviews, as well as handful on Switch before year's end. This is just between 2017 and today. So could someone tell me why they STILL have faith in Microsoft? One year is a slipup. 2 years is a bad time. 3 years is worrying. 4 years is a clearly defined market trend. Microsoft has been a distant third for exclusives for a decade now. This is non-negotiable. Can't wait for someone to report me for bringing charts to a video game charts site because it's not flattering. |
Nice work you've done. But how much does this matter anyways? You talk about facts in an earlier post, but the reality is, that video game console sales aren't really scientifically researched. So everything we can do is actually more along the lines of educated guesses.
1. You counted exclusives as if they were decisive. How was the launch with exclusives for PS4 and XB1? Right, both had not much to show in that regard. Exclusive counts always look great in theory, but in the end GTA, FIFA, COD and so on will be the games that sell. Yes, many customers buy consoles, but never any exclusive game.
2. I find it always mind-boggling, how console focused this site is and just forgets about the rest of the gaming market. Because, if we look in reality, what can we see:
- Who has the most exclusives? → PC
- Who has the best backwards compatibility? → PC
- Who has the best ability to mod? → PC
- Who has the multiplats cheapest? → PC
So why do consoles sell at all? Because there is more to it than just exclusive counts and similar stuff. So while your counting may influence some to buy a PS5 at launch (it seems it has convinced yourself), don't count on it being the only factor making people buy a console.
3. You ignore the value proposition which is gamepass. I am not an XBox-fan, and the value of this service makes an incredible impression on me. As I said before, people decide to play on consoles despite the PC as platform exists, so I see the possibility for people getting an XBox as an Gamepass-machine. I have no idea how many, but disregarding this option is just not working.
4. People bought initially PS4 without much to show for it. A reason was probably their trust in future games. With studio acquisitions including Bethesda, MS can show a lot in that regard. Your past count isn't doing much, if we can look forward to Obsidian, InXile, DoubleFine and all Bethesda studios in the future. All of these don't influence your past years count, but most likely will influence a future count.
So do I think Xbox will beat Playstation at launch? I actually have no idea at all. Playstation has a pretty big boon: it has a very enthusiastic and big fanbase, which buy their consoles on brand power. Well, home consoles at least. So that clearly is a factor in favor of PS5. But overall I have no idea, I'll see. Only thing I take for certain based on historical data: the console at it's peak will beat the launch consoles.
