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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Nintendo's success with the Switch both a blessing and a curse?

It's stupid to think the switch will suddenly stop selling. No it will continue to have the sales trajectory it is meant to have with or without next gen. It depends more on what Nintendo does more than anything else and I mean software and PR. The tone and trajectory of the console is set in the first year or 2 and that's what happened with Xbone and PS4 and WiiU and almost all other consoles. Nintendo would have to screw up pretty badly for switch not to sell like a behemoth. The switch has a shot at a 100mil consoles and ps5 and series x(stupid name) wil not have any major impact on that number, only Ninty will. They should stick with the switch formula for at least 2 more generations hell even more as the power GAO's between probable and home consoles will keep shrinking.



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scottslater said:
zorg1000 said:

That's such a specific qualifier that it means almost nothing.

This is a website dedicated to game sales, it has all the data you need to see that MK has consistently done better on other platforms.

And Smash outsells other fighting games by a wide margin, so again, there is no reason for Nintendo owners to buy other fighting games because of Smash.

EDIT: For example, just last month SSBU outsold MK11 and that doesn't include digital sales of SSBU.

EDIT2: Also, dismissing Amazon is pretty ignorant, Amazon accounts for 50% of all online retail sales and 5% of all retail sales in general.

EDIT3: Actually, Amazon has a pretty large share of the retail business of video games, almost 7% ($1 billion sales recorded in a $14.5 billion market in 2017)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/725702/us-amazon-top-selling-video-game-categories/

https://venturebeat.com/2018/01/18/npd-2017-an-incredible-year-for-games-leads-to-11-sales-growth/

That's like saying no other shooter game should sell well because COD is so popular or other open world games shouldnt do well because GTA is so big.

Smash Bros and Mortal Kombat are nothing alike and do not steal sales from one another and there is literally nothing that supports your argument.

Again, you cant take sales from one retailer in one country over a very specific time frame to make conclusions about games sales.

I know you are new here but over the last few years there has been alot of discussion and evidence pointing out how amazon rankings are almost meaningless when it comes to determining software sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I mentioned this in a thread long ago, but the Switch and PS5/Series X (Really stupid name, BTW), are going to have little to no effect on each other.
By next year, the Switch will likely be selling for $170/$250 between the Lite and main models and a massive library of games backing it, while the PS5 and XBSX will be going for $400-500 with new libraries starting they need to build up. The vast majority of people that are going to buy these two systems at launch & its first year are going to be the die-hard, loyal PlayStation/Xbox fans who either already have a Switch or are never going to buy it anyways. Meanwhile, the casual, mainstream gaming audience will be more focused on the Switch because it'll be at two cheap and affordable price ranges with large and growing gaming libraries that more than justify the purchase.
The kind of gamer that will wait 3-4 years for a price cut/revision and a substantial library before buying a system IS NOT the kind of gamer that will jump on a new, expensive system as soon as it launches. The Switch's launch didn't stop the PS4 from having its peak year. By the time the PS5 and XBSX get to that point where they'll be affordable and with a great, expanding library games - the exact same spot the Switch is at now, by that point the Switch will be on its last legs and Switch 2, or whatever Nintendo's next system will be, will have launched or just about to launch. And then THAT system will be in the same exact spot the PS5 and XBSX will be when they come out next year.
The Switch will inevitably see decline in sales in 2021 and 2022. But that's going to be more because it'll be entering its 5th and 6th years on the market on March 3rd of those years and it'll start to show its age. Just like the PS4 and XBO did in 2018 and 2019.



SammyGiireal said:
scottslater said:

What do you consider "impressive" for a console? Because I can say that I have had more fun with the Switch as a console over as a handheld.  I get what you're saying but to dismiss the appeal of the Switch as a console is very short sighted.  It would take more than one bad console for them to abandon that or else we wouldn't have had the Wii after the GameCube... And as a console I find the Switch lineup better than what Xbox/PS offer right now (Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Zelda: BotW, Mario Odyssey, Pokemon Sw/Sh, Smash, Mario Kart, etc.)

Had the Switch been a Home console it would have failed. The Switch is my favorite system because of its portability and most of the market sees it as such. Nintendo left the home console bussiness. 

Does that really matter? Say, the PS6 drops BluRay and only banks on SSDs. You could say then Sony has left the optical disc drive console market, which they started their gaming enterprise on. Or an easier example: with PSVR, you might say Sony is leaving the home console market to enter the VR console market.

But would it matter? In the end all that counts is, they have a system which runs games and you want to play said games. Nothing else matters.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

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Alistair said:

A 5 watt APU based on 2014's mobile tech is not a home console. It really shouldn't even be an argument. Add a dock to the Vita and you had the same thing. Personally the Wii U was a great console for me. If I look at the Switch, outside Mario Odyssey, nothing was new on the system for the first few years. The Gamecube to Wii transition was more exciting than the Wii U to Switch transition (20 years with only 2 power levels, only Nintendo). Would like modern mobile tech or a console based on the weakest current GPU, the 1650 Super. That's all. If Nintendo can't even do that, I'll be supporting emulators with my money, not buying another Switch (which I already sold after beating Mario Odyssey). If Nintendo wants to nip the emulator community in the bud, they can start with a decent home console. Nintendo is losing 10+ million of their life long fans with the Switch, and you can't ignore that the Switch's success is mainly the people who bought the 3DS. I have several friends with a Wii U who have bought the Switch and are less than impressed.

What is so funny, that back in 2007 when I entered VGC, you could read the same argument about power which you write here in regards to Wii and DS. Over and over. How the Wii and DS cannot succeed, how they are not powerful enough, yada, yada, yada. It is really a tell-tale sign of a noob in regards to console sales, if you argue with power as it had any meaning for the success of a system at all.

Towards your bolded Vita argument: no, adding a dock to the Vita isn't the same thing. Because the Vita fails to have the gaming experiences that make the Switch successful. The Switch would have been the same as the Vita (and similarly successful), if it hadn't Breath of the Wild, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2, Mario Kart 8 in it's first year. But it did. So it is nothing like the Vita.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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Eagle367 said:
It's stupid to think the switch will suddenly stop selling. No it will continue to have the sales trajectory it is meant to have with or without next gen. It depends more on what Nintendo does more than anything else and I mean software and PR. The tone and trajectory of the console is set in the first year or 2 and that's what happened with Xbone and PS4 and WiiU and almost all other consoles. Nintendo would have to screw up pretty badly for switch not to sell like a behemoth. The switch has a shot at a 100mil consoles and ps5 and series x(stupid name) wil not have any major impact on that number, only Ninty will. They should stick with the switch formula for at least 2 more generations hell even more as the power GAO's between probable and home consoles will keep shrinking.

I don't think the power difference between portable and non-portable will really shrink. A console that can draw power without regards to battery life and heat dispersal will always be more powerful.

But there is another effect at work: diminishing returns. Back in the day the power difference allowed for signifacant different gaming experiences. Take 3D capabilities for example, this allowed for completely new gaming experiences. Nowadays the power differences might bring you sharper looking images, more realistic physics or literally more grass in a scene. But that all doesn't impact the gaming experience in such a meaningful way. It does impact, but not as much as the difference between 2D and 3D. And Nintendo really drove home that point by launching the Switch with a vast open world adventure.

If the gaming experience Breath of the Wild offers is possible on Switch, there is not much it fails to deliver. And over time the difference between experiences provided by more power will fell less and less meaningful.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

KLXVER said:
Wyrdness said:

They're not all over the place with portables though with 3 out of 4 selling over 80m as a Hybrid Switch inherits this market and currently has a monopoly on it and is well on its way to being another 80m plus platform to the point it's possibly going to be a 100m platform which would make it Nintendo's fourth and overtake the PS brand as they're currently tied on that front which kind of is his point when it comes to brands.

Well if you don't count the Virtual Boy AND combine the GB and GBC, then sure. 

Take two identical consoles with the exact same games on them. One says PlayStation on it and the other says Nintendo on it. I would put my money on the PlayStation one selling the best. I just think the PS brand has more mass appeal. Not shitting on Nintendo in any way here, its just what I believe.

I would have agreed with this if Sony software sold the best too. The PS brand isn't just hardware sales, but software sales too, and Sony games sales is nowhere near the best selling in the world



Alistair said:

A 5 watt APU based on 2014's mobile tech is not a home console. It really shouldn't even be an argument. Add a dock to the Vita and you had the same thing. Personally the Wii U was a great console for me. If I look at the Switch, outside Mario Odyssey, nothing was new on the system for the first few years. The Gamecube to Wii transition was more exciting than the Wii U to Switch transition (20 years with only 2 power levels, only Nintendo). Would like modern mobile tech or a console based on the weakest current GPU, the 1650 Super. That's all. If Nintendo can't even do that, I'll be supporting emulators with my money, not buying another Switch (which I already sold after beating Mario Odyssey). If Nintendo wants to nip the emulator community in the bud, they can start with a decent home console. Nintendo is losing 10+ million of their life long fans with the Switch, and you can't ignore that the Switch's success is mainly the people who bought the 3DS. I have several friends with a Wii U who have bought the Switch and are less than impressed.

Based on what? 3ds started to selling well after the price drop and new exclusive Monster Hunter games for a while, Switch have nothing of those but still sell very well and faster than 3ds in the same time frame



Mnementh said:

But there is another effect at work: diminishing returns. Back in the day the power difference allowed for signifacant different gaming experiences. Take 3D capabilities for example, this allowed for completely new gaming experiences. Nowadays the power differences might bring you sharper looking images, more realistic physics or literally more grass in a scene. But that all doesn't impact the gaming experience in such a meaningful way.

This will actually most likely change, probably not in 9th gen, since consoles will not be powerful enough, but it's fair to expect some smaller titles (which actually already happens to a degree).

What I'm referring to is switch (no pun intended) from polygon based worlds to fully volumetric ones (be it voxel octrees or something similar) - this is major paradigm shift, but (according to Tim Sweeney form Epic in an interview from some years ago on Gamasutra) requires some 25+ TFLOPS.



scottslater said:

I wouldn't worry about the Switch at all in 2020.  I believe very much that it will be the #1 selling system again for the next year.  Next gen consoles typically take a year or two to start selling at a rapid pace.  There is also budget to take into consideration.  These new consoles are likely to cost $400-$500 and for that kind of money you can buy a PS4/Xbox 1/Switch with several games and many will still do that for a couple years.

Nintendo has never had to rely on 3rd party support to sell their systems.  Sony/Microsoft heavy reliance on 3rd party games is a detriment IMO as it does not create brand loyalty.  You can see that with the last few generations (Xbox 360 being "more popular" than the PS3, the PS4 being "more popular" than the Xbox 1) and Nintendo has never really suffered that (the Wii U was just a major misstep as a whole and had nothing to do with 3rd party support).

I wouldn't say Sony and MS are reliant on 3rd party, but rather that they are automatically covered on that front. When you buy a PS or an XB, you can be sure that you will always get most releases. That's actually a component of the brand loyalty with these machines, you know you won't miss out on the 3rd party stuff. On top of that, you get exclusives and franchises that will cement loyalty even further.