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Global Hardware 2 March 2019

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Shiken said:
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:
I wonder if days gone will push ps4 ahead that week

I doubt it.  Days Gone will do well, but the people who would buy it likely already have a PS4 at this point.

Yeah, i don't think it will move more units than KH3 + RE2 effect.



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Skeeuk said:
what will happen to switch when next gen consoles launch this year or next

Well they are definitely not launching this year, so 2019 is a lock for Switch WW I believe.

 

Seeing how they will most likely come holiday 2020, most of next year is safe for Switch too as the sales for PS4 and X1 will slow even more.  Once they launch however, it will be the baseline that is important.

 

I predict the PS5 to sell similarly to Switch/PS4 when the launch rush clears if Sony does not drop the ball.  Switch will continue its current momentum due to the portability factor for another 2 years through 1st and 3rd party executives based on the architecture of the Switch, which is when the Switch 2 drops and closes the power gap to at least where it is now again.  A timely price cut will play into this, as the Switch will be much cheaper than the other two newer consoles, and 3rd parties will not be able to ignore the huge install base.  While multiplats will be more scarce, we will likely see more Octopath Traveler or Bayonetta type deals going down when it comes to 3rd parties at this time.

 

The OG Switch will become the new lite console for a few more years as bigger projects shift to Switch 2 moving forward.  This will allow for Nintendo's typical 5 year cycle and a 7 yr or more lifespan for the base Switch.  Rinse and repeat.

 

The NextBox will do better than the X1, but not as well as the Switch 2 or PS5 in the grand scheme and the base Switch will settle in around 100 mil WW sales.

 

That is my prediction.

Last edited by Shiken - on 19 March 2019

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Jranation said:
Skeeuk said:
what will happen to switch when next gen consoles launch this year or next

We can make predictions but we will only find out when it actually happens. But I remember lots of people saying that the Switch wont do well because the XboxOne and PS4 have already released and built a huge game library. 

This means that PS5/Nextbox will not do well, because the Switch is already established on the market and has built a huge game library.



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Geralt99 said:
Switch Looks a bit overtracked .

What is this based on?



                                                                                                                                            

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Shiken said:
Skeeuk said:
what will happen to switch when next gen consoles launch this year or next

Well they are definitely not launching this year, so 2019 is a lock for Switch WW I believe.

 

Seeing how they will most likely come holiday 2020, most of next year is safe for Switch too as the sales for PS4 and X1 will slow even more.  Once they launch however, it will be the baseline that is important.

 

I predict the PS5 to sell similarly to Switch/PS4 when the launch rush clears if Sony does not drop the ball.  Switch will continue its current momentum due to the portability factor for another 2 years through 1st and 3rd party executives based on the architecture of the Switch, which is when the Switch 2 drops and closes the power gap to at least where it is now again.  A timely price cut will play into this, as the Switch will be much cheaper than the other two newer consoles, and 3rd parties will not be able to ignore the huge install base.  While multiplats will be more scarce, we will likely see more Octopath Traveler or Bayonetta type deals going down when it comes to 3rd parties at this time.

 

The OG Switch will become the new lite console for a few more years as bigger projects shift to Switch 2 moving forward.  This will allow for Nintendo's typical 5 year cycle and a 7 yr or more lifespan for the base Switch.  Rinse and repeat.

 

The NextBox will do better than the X1, but not as well as the Switch 2 or PS5 in the grand scheme and the base Switch will settle in around 100 mil WW sales.

 

That is my prediction.

2020 safe for the Switch ? I see coming the start of the decline, I don't see how the sales momemtum can maintain without new 10M+ seller. There should be sure this year :

- Animal Crossing

- The 2 Pokemon (they should actually do 10+ each)

- Mario Maker 2 (my estimation is actually 9-10)

For 2020 what can we have actually ? Except an eventual new Mario Kart, I see absolutly nothing else.

Even a new Zelda based on the engine of BotW, would I think not reach 8M, following the rule of Majora.



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Amnesia said:
Shiken said:

Well they are definitely not launching this year, so 2019 is a lock for Switch WW I believe.

 

Seeing how they will most likely come holiday 2020, most of next year is safe for Switch too as the sales for PS4 and X1 will slow even more.  Once they launch however, it will be the baseline that is important.

2020 safe for the Switch ? I see coming the start of the decline, I don't see how the sales momemtum can maintain without new 10M+ seller. There should be sure this year :

- Animal Crossing

- The 2 Pokemon (they should actually do 10+ each)

- Mario Maker 2 (my estimation is actually 9-10)

For 2020 what can we have actually ? Except an eventual new Mario Kart, I see absolutly nothing else.

Even a new Zelda based on the engine of BotW, would I think not reach 8M, following the rule of Majora.

Hes saying 2020 is safe for Switch as in it will be the best selling console that year because PS4/XBO will show even further decline and PS5/XB4 likely wont release until the holidays.

Your reply doesn't really have anything to do with that.



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Amnesia said:
Shiken said:

Well they are definitely not launching this year, so 2019 is a lock for Switch WW I believe.

 

Seeing how they will most likely come holiday 2020, most of next year is safe for Switch too as the sales for PS4 and X1 will slow even more.  Once they launch however, it will be the baseline that is important.

 

I predict the PS5 to sell similarly to Switch/PS4 when the launch rush clears if Sony does not drop the ball.  Switch will continue its current momentum due to the portability factor for another 2 years through 1st and 3rd party executives based on the architecture of the Switch, which is when the Switch 2 drops and closes the power gap to at least where it is now again.  A timely price cut will play into this, as the Switch will be much cheaper than the other two newer consoles, and 3rd parties will not be able to ignore the huge install base.  While multiplats will be more scarce, we will likely see more Octopath Traveler or Bayonetta type deals going down when it comes to 3rd parties at this time.

 

The OG Switch will become the new lite console for a few more years as bigger projects shift to Switch 2 moving forward.  This will allow for Nintendo's typical 5 year cycle and a 7 yr or more lifespan for the base Switch.  Rinse and repeat.

 

The NextBox will do better than the X1, but not as well as the Switch 2 or PS5 in the grand scheme and the base Switch will settle in around 100 mil WW sales.

 

That is my prediction.

2020 safe for the Switch ? I see coming the start of the decline, I don't see how the sales momemtum can maintain without new 10M+ seller. There should be sure this year :

- Animal Crossing

- The 2 Pokemon (they should actually do 10+ each)

- Mario Maker 2 (my estimation is actually 9-10)

For 2020 what can we have actually ? Except an eventual new Mario Kart, I see absolutly nothing else.

Even a new Zelda based on the engine of BotW, would I think not reach 8M, following the rule of Majora.

A normal 2D Mario, and new ips



New IPs can do 2-5M, not 10+.
Building a 10 millions seller takes more time.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:
New IPs can do 2-5M, not 10+.
Building a 10 millions seller takes more time.

It’s not impossible though, so ruling out the possibility is unwise.