Jranation said:
We can make predictions but we will only find out when it actually happens. But I remember lots of people saying that the Switch wont do well because the XboxOne and PS4 have already released and built a huge game library. |
This means that PS5/Nextbox will not do well, because the Switch is already established on the market and has built a huge game library. 
Shiken said:
Well they are definitely not launching this year, so 2019 is a lock for Switch WW I believe.
Seeing how they will most likely come holiday 2020, most of next year is safe for Switch too as the sales for PS4 and X1 will slow even more. Once they launch however, it will be the baseline that is important.
I predict the PS5 to sell similarly to Switch/PS4 when the launch rush clears if Sony does not drop the ball. Switch will continue its current momentum due to the portability factor for another 2 years through 1st and 3rd party executives based on the architecture of the Switch, which is when the Switch 2 drops and closes the power gap to at least where it is now again. A timely price cut will play into this, as the Switch will be much cheaper than the other two newer consoles, and 3rd parties will not be able to ignore the huge install base. While multiplats will be more scarce, we will likely see more Octopath Traveler or Bayonetta type deals going down when it comes to 3rd parties at this time.
The OG Switch will become the new lite console for a few more years as bigger projects shift to Switch 2 moving forward. This will allow for Nintendo's typical 5 year cycle and a 7 yr or more lifespan for the base Switch. Rinse and repeat.
The NextBox will do better than the X1, but not as well as the Switch 2 or PS5 in the grand scheme and the base Switch will settle in around 100 mil WW sales.
That is my prediction. |
2020 safe for the Switch ? I see coming the start of the decline, I don't see how the sales momemtum can maintain without new 10M+ seller. There should be sure this year :
- Animal Crossing
- The 2 Pokemon (they should actually do 10+ each)
- Mario Maker 2 (my estimation is actually 9-10)
For 2020 what can we have actually ? Except an eventual new Mario Kart, I see absolutly nothing else.
Even a new Zelda based on the engine of BotW, would I think not reach 8M, following the rule of Majora.
Amnesia said:
2020 safe for the Switch ? I see coming the start of the decline, I don't see how the sales momemtum can maintain without new 10M+ seller. There should be sure this year : - Animal Crossing - The 2 Pokemon (they should actually do 10+ each) - Mario Maker 2 (my estimation is actually 9-10) For 2020 what can we have actually ? Except an eventual new Mario Kart, I see absolutly nothing else. Even a new Zelda based on the engine of BotW, would I think not reach 8M, following the rule of Majora. |
Hes saying 2020 is safe for Switch as in it will be the best selling console that year because PS4/XBO will show even further decline and PS5/XB4 likely wont release until the holidays.
Your reply doesn't really have anything to do with that.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
Amnesia said:
2020 safe for the Switch ? I see coming the start of the decline, I don't see how the sales momemtum can maintain without new 10M+ seller. There should be sure this year : - Animal Crossing - The 2 Pokemon (they should actually do 10+ each) - Mario Maker 2 (my estimation is actually 9-10) For 2020 what can we have actually ? Except an eventual new Mario Kart, I see absolutly nothing else. Even a new Zelda based on the engine of BotW, would I think not reach 8M, following the rule of Majora. |
A normal 2D Mario, and new ips
New IPs can do 2-5M, not 10+.
Building a 10 millions seller takes more time.
| Amnesia said: New IPs can do 2-5M, not 10+. Building a 10 millions seller takes more time. |
It’s not impossible though, so ruling out the possibility is unwise.
It's also not a requirement to have a new 10M seller to have a great year HW sales-wise.
That someone think Nintendo, with the biggest portfolio in the video game industry, would run out of games to put out in the year a console turns 3 years old is somewhat funny.
Nintendo has always been reliant on evergreens and we're seeing another 3(4-5) releasing in 2019 that will drive sales for the first months of 2020 as well. And we're going to see another 3-5 evergreens releasing in 2020 - if someone of them are 10M+ sellers year 1 is irrelevant.
| Amnesia said: 2020 safe for the Switch ? I see coming the start of the decline, I don't see how the sales momemtum can maintain without new 10M+ seller. There should be sure this year : - Animal Crossing - The 2 Pokemon (they should actually do 10+ each) - Mario Maker 2 (my estimation is actually 9-10) For 2020 what can we have actually ? Except an eventual new Mario Kart, I see absolutly nothing else. Even a new Zelda based on the engine of BotW, would I think not reach 8M, following the rule of Majora. |
Why would a BOTW successor likely follow the "rule of Majora"? It is unlikely it will require an add-on or revolve around a non-accessible gameplay gimmick. as Majora did.
And there are tons of potential Switch releases for 2020 and beyond; an all new 2D Mario or Donkey Kong Country, the next 3D Mario, new IPs, revivals of old IPs like F-Zero, Pikmin 4, Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3, Monolith Soft's action RPG, third party deals for stuff like an exclusive Monster Hunter...
This notion that the Switch is suddenly going to get no more games after this year is just absurd.
| Amnesia said: New IPs can do 2-5M, not 10+. Building a 10 millions seller takes more time. |
Didn’t horizon and last of us sell 10 million as new IPs?
I am Iron Man
| Robert_Downey_Jr. said: Didn’t horizon and last of us sell 10 million as new IPs? |
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