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What's With The PS4 Sales Doubt?

Forums - Sony Discussion - What's With The PS4 Sales Doubt?

Where Do You Think The PS4 Ends?

100M-110M 13 11.61%
 
111M-120M 30 26.79%
 
121M-130M 40 35.71%
 
131M-140M 21 18.75%
 
141M-150M 5 4.46%
 
150M+ 3 2.68%
 
Total:112
Intrinsic said:
FentonCrackshell said:
I said below 110 before but now I think between 115 and 120. This year will be weak for PS4.

Whats your idea of weak?

I think its going to do around 15M with a similar pricing scheme to 2018 or around 18M if there is an early permanent price drop to $199. And to me those are great numbers for a 6yr old console. Poor to me will be like under 14M but sony will not let that happen cause if they see it tracking like that then we will see that price drop early (around june) 

Kerotan said:

How far away from 5nm and 3nm are we?

Well volume production of 7nm is really going t come into its own in 2020. So if there are no hiccups 5nm should swing by around 2023/2024. Thats a big if because risk production for 5nm is actually to begin this year and it usually takes around 12-18 months to go from risk production t actual production chips and then another 18-24 moths to o into mass volume production (the stage consoles need it to be at before adoption).  And 3nm around 2027/2028.

Its also expected that 7nm is a long node..... this means it will be in circulation fr a while and instead go through design improvements as opposed to rushing to 5nm. This is more to do with changes in the fabrication process and how they will probably want t implement those changes on  familiar node before shrinking it down to 3nm.

Consoles usually get their chips like 2 years into a new node size availability. This is a cost thing. A way they can fast track that is by building in redundancy into the chip.... kinda like the PS4pro APU having a 40CU GPU but only using 36 and dropping the clock to ~900mhz when the GPU it was based on was clocked at 1266mhz and capable of 5.8TF with a power draw f around 100W. 

 

Thanks. I'd be hoping ps5 is 7nm, ps5 Pro is 5nm and PS5 is 3nm. Time will tell! 



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So PS4 will be at 100m around of half of this year, my vote goes to 120-130m,
I dont see PS4 passing 130m, but hardly will sell less than 120m LT also.



Considering it’ll be sold and supported for another 5 years or so, only had one pricedrop yet and will continue selling for 150-200 after PS5...especially if PS5 releases for more than 400,-, which is very likely imho, I don't see why it would sell less than 130 million.



As I've always said, above PS1, below PS2.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


There are a lot of loud Nintendo and Xbox fans(last generation ps3vs 360) zooming around the internet who likes to beat down the sales of ps4 as if it somehow makes their console look better. The reality is ps4 is the king this generation. I think 2019 sales will be 17million; 2020 sales will be 12million. So back to your original question, that's 123million in sales. Probably another 10 million after 2020; so lifetime sales of 133million. 



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130m-140m

The eventual $199 price tag for the base system will give it another huge year in 2020, but i think it will die quickly after that because the PS5 and Xbox Next will be far more competitive successors with full BC, bigger titles out the gate (TLOU2? Horizon 2) a decent entry price & of course the peak of the Switch. I see these factors killing the current gen consoles at an abnormally fast pace.



Kerotan said:

Thanks. I'd be hoping ps5 is 7nm, ps5 Pro is 5nm and PS5 is 3nm. Time will tell! 

That would be the most likely scenario..... 

Errorist76 said:
Considering it’ll be sold and supported for another 5 years or so, only had one pricedrop yet and will continue selling for 150-200 after PS5...especially if PS5 releases for more than 400,-, which is very likely imho, I don't see why it would sell less than 130 million.

No.... this is not 2006 and the PS5 is not going to be a $600 console in a space where there is a cheaper $400 console available.

I cant stress enough how important this is.

The people that buy in the first year mostly are the early adopters. If the console comes in at $399/$499 and is BC with the PS4 then all those early adopters not only have no reason to wait before buying they also have no reason to hold onto their PS4. Especially when you consider most will be in a position to trade in their old console.

No matter how much sony drops the price of the PS4 buying used will still be cheaper, and there will be a lot of used consoles up and about. That is going to really impact hw many new PS4s sony will be able to sell at that time.



I principally agree with the Original Post but the answer depends on which year we take as the end of the console cycle. Most people forget that the current sales of the older consoles are usually not the total sales when the newer generation arrived, but they rather continued to sell for a few more years, which is especially true for Nintendo handhelds and Sony consoles. PS2, for instance, sold around 30-40 million after the release of ps3. So PS4 will continue to sell a few more years even after the PS5 comes out. It also depends on WHEN the PS3 will come out. Assuming it will be released at the end of 2020, we still have two more full years before release and probably 2-3 more years on extended support at the very least.

Sony themselves estimated that the PS4 will sell around 19 million this year, and assuming a further drop to 15 million in 2020, it will sell about 34 million more by the end of 2020, bringing the number to around 94 + 34 = 128 million, or let's just say 120-130. This is by the end of 2020, already surpassing PS3, and PS1. If it continues to sell about 10 million annually for 2-3 more years, it may reach the PS2 numbers.

Take a look at my ORIGINAL DETAILED SEMI- ACADEMIC ESTIMATES back in 2014 for PS4 and XB1
=> Summary, I had estimated, by 2020, PS4 would sell: 120-150 million, and XB1 :41-64 million
=> Yes, the ranges are a bit large but still CORRECT, and there were a lot of unknowns in 2014 (5 years ago!)
=> The 2014 estimate was predicting a minimum of 120 million sales by 2020 end, so yes, it will pass that point in 2 years. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1

Last edited by freedquaker - on 03 February 2019

Xbox One X (Scorpio) Prospects

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 15-25 % vs PS4 : 75-85%
N. America => XB1 :  35-45% vs PS4 : 55-65%
Global     => XB1 :  24-33% vs PS4 : 67-76%

Most don't realize that other regions don't have viable sales until after the next console has launched worldwide, and many are still on PS3/XBOX360 and will switch. Thing will leg for years.



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pastro243 said:
BraLoD said:
I remember all those "it won't reach 100M" posts, lol.
Even when PS4 sales would need to simply stop abruptly for that to be possible.
Anyway, my 120M prediction from day 1 is still holding up very well, I would say.

Some said it wouldn't even outsell the 3ds (I couldn't find the thread though)

It'll sit comfortably in 2nd place behind the PS2.