These who doubting the ps4 are mostly nintendo fans. They dont want to believe it can outsell the wii
Well, two years ago that would have been fine, even though I would tell them they were wrong. But, last year and especially now?! It's a forgone conclusion. At this point, they are using emotions to make their arguments, not logic.
The thing that has the market unsure is how Sony is going to transition to PS5. Right now things don't look good for Sony beyond PS4. They have not built an ecosystem around the PlayStation OS, which has lead to their Phone and TV divisions be hit extremely hard since the launch of PS4. They also have not put a lot of faith in a long supported ecosystem, with the lack of B/C, and the failure to deliver or even maintain even gaming related features over the last 2 years. Right now, many people have cold feet about investing, as it looks yet again like PS5 will be a hard reset, going up against Microsoft, Google, and Apple, that have established living ecosystems, that are backwards and forwards compatible.
The PS5 will not be that much a hard reset because CPU/GPU will be the same x86, I dont understand what do you mean by ecosystem or PS Phone, so, they have PS Now, PS Vue, next handheld or gaming phone or whatever is simply not happening. They will not produce a dozens of electronic stuff and call it PS Something, because this will simply ruin Playstation brand. I know you think that every year console revision, PS budget, PS Premium, PS Ultra Premium, and a lot of strange things are good, no they are not.
And the PS5 is rumored to have a BC.
And I dont see Google or Apple in console market.... at the end of horizon.
He's been going on and on about a new OS battle for years, now, and I have no idea why. The OS wars have been decided for at least a decade now. Sony getting into it with their own PS OS would just be wasted spending. And as you point out, things don't have to have the same OS to be in the same ecosystem. The PS5 is going to be very much connected to the PS4. It will use the same store, apps, and be B/C, which are more important to keeping consumers past a generation.
I also agree about Google and Apple. They are already raking in a bunch of cash on mobile gaming. I don't see why they would want to spend a bunch of money on taking out Sony. MS already tried and they lost billions. I would also imagine them to try to pull something similar to what MS did early this gen if they had even the slightest success in the business, which gamers would reject.
With the rumors of an XB low end streaming console plus a mid tier and high end traditional console (possibly discless), I wonder if people are contemplating whether PS will follow suit in some manner. Even if PS did a streaming box or mid tier console, one or the other, and a higher end model, it would probably impact PS4 sales enough that it would see a sharper decline than what we would expect now. This wouldn't be done in vain however, since it would help boost PS5 sales early on and transfer momentum over into next gen.
How many console customers this gen are mentally or digitally locked into the PS ecosystem is another question. Even if PS only launches a $399-$499 PS5 and doesn't deviate from the past, then how many existing customers would potentially jump ship to a cheaper XB streaming console or mid tier (1080p/60 ultra) model? If PS4 SS is down to $199 msrp, but there's a $149 XB streaming box, or $299 mid tier (XB1X ish specs) next gen box on the market, will the masses keep buying the PS product?
PS4 has been outselling XB1 even with higher prices and less bundling, but there's a lot more to it than just that. If XB can get itself back to it's 360 days next gen, will the PS4 be able to continue sales anywhere close to what the PS2 did later in it's life cycle? Not to mention if PS dares dip their toes in the Switch's blue ocean. If a new PS portable was tightly tied into the PS4 and/or PS5 ecosystem, but wasn't marketed as a PS4 device, that could also hamper PS4 sales this late in it's life cycle. With mid gen consoles entering the mix, plus hybrids, both selling well enough if not beyond expectations, the future doesn't seem to be as clearly predictable as it would be otherwise.
I think it is rather easily predictable.
In order for MS to get back to the 360 days, two things have to happen. One, they don't shoot themselves in the foot. And two, Sony shoots themselves in their own. I don't really see either shooting themselves in the foot. Even with those things being met last gen, Sony was still able to recover and pass the 360 in the end. PS is just that large of a WW brand.
Sony seems to be making another traditional home console, while MS is throwing everything at the wall next gen (streaming box, low-powered and a high-powered boxes, both of which have a download-only box) hoping something will stick. The latter of which actually can lead to consumer confusion. If MS is advertising for 4 or 5 different consoles, but Sony has a nice all-in-one PS5, that also is B/C with their previous consoles at launch, the PS5 is going to sell on simplicity and features alone. Really, I think MS is going to continue to move their focus to PC gaming. They'll give XB2 a big push at the beginning of the gen, but if they meet a fate worse than the XBO, I think they are done with consoles.
As for the Switch, we already see its impact on the PS4 and vice versa. There isn't one. Sony is making a killing in the traditional home console market, while Nintendo is making a killing with their hybrid. They are different enough, and offer their own positives, that people are buying both. Sony isn't going to screw up their business model, that is extremely successful, to try and chase some other market. A market that has dwindled since last gen, and one that they just had a massive failure in. The most I could see Sony doing is some kind of cheap handheld streaming device that works with the PS5. It still wouldn't be a big focus of theirs. In other words, Sony is doing what it does best, powerful home consoles, and Nintendo is doing what it does best, unique handhelds (now, hybrids.)