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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

Kyuu said:
Without a price drop, PS4 may struggle to stay ahead of Switch this year. From 2019 onwards, it will be a one sided massacre. So yes, PS4 winning this year alone is very much a best-case scenario for Sony imo.

Well, the PS5 will follow up and the one sidedness will change sides again.



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I'm going to go crazy and guess Switch will actually outsell PS4 this year, though only by a tiny bit. Pokemon and Smash are huge sellers, most people don't have the console already, whereas with PS4, RDR2 is going to be massive, but most people already own the console. God of War was huge and while PS4 numbers have jumped, it wasn't nearly as massive as many expected.



Hard to really say since we don't know what Sony and Nintendo will do with pricing/bundles. However, if 2019 is led by the new 8th Gen Pokemon and a 2D Mario (a not unrealistic assumption), I have to give the edge to Switch.



Nope, an definitive ps4 price drop in 2019 ($199 - $249 Bundle) + The Last of Us 2 + Death Stranding + Days Gone + Ghost of Tsushima + some new exclusive announced this E3 + Third Party games not avaliable on Switch = PS4 Win



Kyuu said:
Without a price drop, PS4 may struggle to stay ahead of Switch this year. From 2019 onwards, it will be a one sided massacre. So yes, PS4 winning this year alone is very much a best-case scenario for Sony imo.

nintedo will lose momentum much faster, as there systems really only sell because of nintendo games, and they are releasing all there big franchises early, once pokemon effect goes away 3-4 months switch will start losing momentum just like 3ds. A ps4 at 199$ could be a blood bath.



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I dont even think that the PS4 willl outsell the Switch this fiscal year, so yeah its probably not going to happen.But ou guys need to remember that the PS4 has already sold 80 million units.Expecting it to keep up the pace is simply insane.Even the PS2 sold what it did in the long term(it keep selling great even with the PS3), not having huge spike of sales every year.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

it depends on a price drop or not. switch might outsell but unlikely at this point



quickrick said:
Kyuu said:
Without a price drop, PS4 may struggle to stay ahead of Switch this year. From 2019 onwards, it will be a one sided massacre. So yes, PS4 winning this year alone is very much a best-case scenario for Sony imo.

nintedo will lose momentum much faster, as there systems really only sell because of nintendo games, and they are releasing all there big franchises early, once pokemon effect goes away 3-4 months switch will start losing momentum just like 3ds. A ps4 at 199$ could be a blood bath.

And you expect Sony to sell another 15 million units next year?Even when the PS4 would have probably passed 90 millions and be extremely close to 100 millions?You need to understand that there is eventually a saturation point that every console eventually reach.There are so many humans in the world interested in videogames that you can sell your console to.The high quality gamesthat are still going to release on the PS4 this year, like KH III, RDR 2 and so on, will move consoles, but wont move as much as they would normaly if released early in the console life, simply because thew audience for said games already has a PS4.PS4 is an amazing console, but its not a miracle worker.

Im not even going to adress the Switch factor here, given your bias against the company.Even if I pointed out that Nintendo is far from being empty on ammunition, since there is still Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, Bayonetta 3, a core Pokemon, new IPs and so on left, you wouldnt still acknoledge those circunstances, to put it lightly, and you will keep claiming as you were last year, that Nintendo already burned through most of their franchises,.So I believe that just pointing out the Sony factor as enough proof should be adequate, and spour a better discussion.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
quickrick said:

nintedo will lose momentum much faster, as there systems really only sell because of nintendo games, and they are releasing all there big franchises early, once pokemon effect goes away 3-4 months switch will start losing momentum just like 3ds. A ps4 at 199$ could be a blood bath.

And you expect Sony to sell another 15 million units next year?Even when the PS4 would have probably passed 90 millions and be extremely close to 100 millions?You need to understand that there is eventually a saturation point that every console eventually reach.There are so many humans in the world interested in videogames that you can sell your console to.The high quality gamesthat are still going to release on the PS4 this year, like KH III, RDR 2 and so on, will move consoles, but wont move as much as they would normaly if released early in the console life, simply because thew audience for said games already has a PS4.PS4 is an amazing console, but its not a miracle worker.

Im not even going to adress the Switch factor here, given your bias against the company.Even if I pointed out that Nintendo is far from being empty on ammunition, since there is still Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, Bayonetta 3, a core Pokemon, new IPs and so on left, you wouldnt still acknoledge those circunstances, to put it lightly, and you will keep claiming as you were last year, that Nintendo already burned through most of their franchises,.So I believe that just pointing out the Sony factor as enough proof should be adequate, and spour a better discussion.

Once ps4 becomes 199$ well start talking about saturation, right now its selling better then switch in europe and North america at 299$, imagine when its 199$ with its huge library, and popularity it can probably do 18 million easy.

about the switch part  why even mention bayo 3 its not gonna move any units. as for core pokemon, at least 50% of pokemon fans will buy a switch for go, so core pokemon won't be having a massive impact like it would if it were the first pokemon on the console.

Last edited by quickrick - on 02 June 2018

I doubt it.

By that logic the Switch should already be outselling the PS4 and it isn't.

It's true that PS4 demand might drop once the PS5 has been revealed, but lets not forget price cuts are a thing.

Quite honestly, the switch is an oddity at this point. It's difficult to predict what it can and can't do. For all we know, the switch could equally lose appeal faced with a new technology gen. So... wait and see.