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Forums - Movies & TV - How High Will Avengers:IW Soar? (Currently @ ~$2.04B+)

thismeintiel said: 
Mordred11 said:

The first avengers movie had less competition and was less frontloaded than Infinity War will end up being. IW is a sequel and is burning up demand faster.

You do realize that IW's opening weekend was $55M higher than Black Panther's OW, but IW's 2nd weekend #s that just came in are only 900k bigger than BP's 2nd weekend, right? IW will start losing in daily numbers to Black Panther today, and the later will eventually close the gap. This movie is definitely not gonna be " easily over 700M ".

EDIT: It actually started losing to Black Panther 2 days ago. BP's 2nd Saturday and Sunday were bigger. IW only had Friday over BP. If this movie hits $700M, which I have no reason to believe it will, it's gonna be a loooong stretch. Not gonna be easy at all.

Keep in mind that the numbers we have are just estimates.  Ones that Disney/Marvel puts out mid-Sun.  There's a good shot that they have underestimated the weekend.  We'll have to see when actuals come out later today.

Lol, I've been closely watching the box office for 15 years. I am aware they are estimates, but Sunday numbers are the easiest to predict and thus the weekend "estimates" are always pretty close to actuals. Don't expect much of a difference when actuals kick in.



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Actuals are in. IW did $114.77M at the DBO, bringing its DBO total to $453.11M. It now sits at $714.6M at the FBO, for a WW total of $1.168B after just two weekends.

So far, IW has been outperforming BP by 12.3% at the DBO. If this continues, IW would end its DBO run at ~$784.03M. If the FBO percentage holds, it would end its WW run with $2.02B. Of course, two things to consider. One, the performance against BP will decrease as the weeks go on, since while it is outperforming BP still, it not by as much as opening weekend. And two, the percentage that FBO represents will shoot up a decent amount once it opens in China, as it is tracking for a huge opening there. Possibly $200M+.



mZuzek said:
thismeintiel said:

Personally, I'd switch out BP with Thor: Ragnarok. I just think Ragnarok was a great balance of action and comedy. BP was good, but there were some parts that lagged. 

Yes, you are wrong in my book.

I think Ragnarok is vastly overrated by fans, it would probably barely get into my top 10. Black Panther on the other hand, is one of the best movies I've ever seen.

We're total opposites - I thought BP was vastly overrated (possibly because it had so much hype built up before I saw it about 3 weeks after it was out).  I also think Guardians 2 is way too far over the top, so it would be nowhere near my top 5. Mine would look something like 1. Winter Soldier 2. Guardians 3. Thor: Ragnorok 4. Avengers 5. Civil War/Avengers 3

The good thing is, Marvel has put out enough movies that we can all have our favorites...



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Faelco said:
AsGryffynn said:

Not lost on me, but if Lord Blockbuster says we have to many of his namesakes, odds are he has a point... 

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't. 



AsGryffynn said:
Faelco said:

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't. 

Well, we have different tastes. I watch MCU movies to have fun. And for me, laughing is a way of having fun. So I love movies like GotG or Thor Ragnarok, in which you have jokes, fights, a bit of drama, and then once again jokes and fights. If I want to watch something serious, deep or thought provoking, I'll watch something else. MCU movies are IMO the perfect "fun to watch" movies.

And DC movies are called flops both because their BO is a lot lower than MCU, and because the movies are also pretty badly received for the most part. It's as usual in comics a "battle" between Marvel and DC, and if Marvel wins, then DC loses. That's the usual image.



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AsGryffynn said:
Faelco said:

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't. 

I'm pretty sure that DC/Warner Bros is also calling them a flop.  The movie they were hellbent on getting on screen as quickly as possible with as little build up and audience investment (Justice League) was the lowest grossing of the DCEU.  Imagine if Avengers had grossed less than Iron Man.  Or if Civil War had grossed less than Thor 2.  As you build your brand, your box office take is supposed to increase to show that you are bringing in more fans, not just your hardcore legion who will sit through any hack edited crap you throw up on the screen.  Justice League was supposed to be a 2 part movie, just like Infinity Wars, but the return was so bad that DC/Warner Bros have cancelled the follow up.  They announced making a departure from the "cinematic universe" format in order to concentrate on stand alone films (like Wonder Woman).  So no, they were not doing great by any metric.  600+ million may sound like a lot to a lay person, but when you take into consideration that Sony cancelled an entire planned Spider-Man universe of films just because they were "only grossing 700 million per film", then yeah, the DCEU was a flop.



AsGryffynn said:
Faelco said:

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't. 

They're called flops because they perform poorly compared to their production and marketing budgets.  If you take a look at them, there's only one that did great (WW), one did good (MoS), two were meh results (BvS and SS), and one was an actual flop (JL.)  Unfortunately for them, the one that flopped was the one that should have done the best, as it was their Avengers film.  However, it actually did worse of all the DCEU films, not making enough to cover its budget.  It's why there was a shakeup at DC Film after the results came in.



I think that after just three weekends at the box office, plus one in China, Infinity War is going to be pretty close to taking the number 10 spot on all time worldwide BO.



I think it's going end up over 700 million domestically and around 1.1 billion at the foreign box office for a total of 1.8 billion roughly at the end of its run.



Mordred11 said:
pikashoe said:

It's still making more money daily than the 1st avengers, which made around 250 million more from the same point in its box office run. If IW continues to track agead it will easily be over 700 million. But i agree that it won't hit 800 million.

The first avengers movie had less competition and was less frontloaded than Infinity War will end up being. IW is a sequel and is burning up demand faster.

You do realize that IW's opening weekend was $55M higher than Black Panther's OW, but IW's 2nd weekend #s that just came in are only 900k bigger than BP's 2nd weekend, right? IW will start losing in daily numbers to Black Panther today, and the later will eventually close the gap. This movie is definitely not gonna be " easily over 700M ".

EDIT: It actually started losing to Black Panther 2 days ago. BP's 2nd Saturday and Sunday were bigger. IW only had Friday over BP. If this movie hits $700M, which I have no reason to believe it will, it's gonna be a loooong stretch. Not gonna be easy at all.

So what are your thoughts now? Sunday was upped to over a million ahead of BP and it's remained ahead for monday and Tuesday. 

At the moment it's legs are very similar to BP's, with similar % percentage drops. I think next week BP will start closing the gap but I still feel that IW has a very good chance at hitting the 700 million mark.