I could honestly see Skyrim and DooM outsell Xenoblade 2 amd FE Warriors first year

The highest selling 3rd party game is Super Bomberman R with 500K sales. So far every Nintendo game has beaten that. The game with the lowest potential to sell is probably the Fire Emblem Warriors game or Pokken.

This is the biggest 3rd party games this year
-Skyrim
-Doom

I think that's it when it comes to big sales. Honestly I think Skyrim can sell but it will be mostly through legs. So there is a chance that your prediction will be correct. Also when I say a chance I mean a BIG chance.

Nintendo will probably have like 50% to 60% of all the software sales.

Skyrim and Doom are the biggest contenders for this year, but it would more interesting to look at 2018

The Big 3 IPs for sure would top the charts, but I hope a 3rd party game would be atleast get into the Top 10. Agreed that Skyrim or Doom might get into the Top 10.

Skyrim
Minecraft
DOOM

I think the top3 3rd party will be like this. Mario+Rabbids after and FE:W in last place

Maybe fifa 18?

Imo, only Skyrim has a chance of breaking into the top 10 thanks to the frequent promotion it's been getting ever since it was revealed alongside the Switch last year. Plus after BotW n Odyssey, there should be an audience for open world adventure games. Now of the 10 Nintendo games, all but 3 are guaranteed to break a million, a number I don't see Skyrim reaching this year, it'll do more like 500k methinks. So basically it comes down to whether or not Skyrim can beat out either Pokken, FE Warriors, or Xenoblade 2. I'm going to say it will certainly beat Xenoblade simply because Xenoblade only has like 3 weeks to sell in.

As for AAA 3rd partys being what determines Nintendo's success, that idea can only come from personal feeling and bias, as the cold hard numbers clearly say otherwise. The ones making those articles n videos need only check the top selling software for any Nintendo system including the Switch to see this.

-Lonely_Dolphin

I can see Skyrim selling over 1 million, which would probably be better than Xenoblade 2 and Fire Emblem Warriors.

I agree on Skyrim and maybe Doom having a shot.

Also I agree, that if we would take digital into consideration Minecraft is probably doing well.

Bomberman should Beat FE Warriors