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Imo, only Skyrim has a chance of breaking into the top 10 thanks to the frequent promotion it's been getting ever since it was revealed alongside the Switch last year. Plus after BotW n Odyssey, there should be an audience for open world adventure games. Now of the 10 Nintendo games, all but 3 are guaranteed to break a million, a number I don't see Skyrim reaching this year, it'll do more like 500k methinks. So basically it comes down to whether or not Skyrim can beat out either Pokken, FE Warriors, or Xenoblade 2. I'm going to say it will certainly beat Xenoblade simply because Xenoblade only has like 3 weeks to sell in.

As for AAA 3rd partys being what determines Nintendo's success, that idea can only come from personal feeling and bias, as the cold hard numbers clearly say otherwise. The ones making those articles n videos need only check the top selling software for any Nintendo system including the Switch to see this.

-Lonely_Dolphin