The highest selling 3rd party game is Super Bomberman R with 500K sales. So far every Nintendo game has beaten that. The game with the lowest potential to sell is probably the Fire Emblem Warriors game or Pokken.
This is the biggest 3rd party games this year
-Skyrim
-Doom
I think that's it when it comes to big sales. Honestly I think Skyrim can sell but it will be mostly through legs. So there is a chance that your prediction will be correct. Also when I say a chance I mean a BIG chance.
Nintendo will probably have like 50% to 60% of all the software sales.