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When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

Forums - Sales Discussion - When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

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Never 147 21.68%
 
1st half 2018 31 4.57%
 
2nd half 2018 58 8.55%
 
1st half 2019 90 13.27%
 
2nd half 2019 140 20.65%
 
1st half 2020 64 9.44%
 
2nd half 2020 70 10.32%
 
1st half 2021 18 2.65%
 
2nd half 2021 21 3.10%
 
2022 and beyond 39 5.75%
 
Total:678

At the moment I say never, it's still too early to tell if the Switch will be a success or if it is all hype. I will re evaluate after its first year.



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Jigsawx1 said:
Slownenberg said:
I voted for second half 2020, but I could see it being first half 2020 or maybe even holidays 2019. I think its pretty much a race to 50 million. Xbox will be limping across 50 million in 2020, getting ready for a new xbox, while Switch is blowing by 50 million around the same time. After this year Switch should be doing 15-20+ million a year, so yeah early 2020 it should pass 50 million and it should be past xbox by that point.

So you think it will sell better then the Ps4? why it is behind the ps4 in weekly?

If the switch continous ( I dont think that) to outsell the Xone by 70k a week it would need  ~ 7 years to close the gap..........

 

My opinion is that the switch and Wiiu combined will be behind the Xone by 10 million after this "generation" so when the starting system dont get new gaming content.

And that the Xbox is at 50 million in the mid of 2020 is a very low prediction because it is selling ~9 million units per year so normally it should be around 55 million in the mid of 2020

 

ummm, are you for real?!

First bold part: Switch is very supply constrained, as we all know. It sells out everywhere (maybe not europe) within hours of restock. It's very hard to find. Current weekly sales are artificially low.

Second bold part: uhhhh, that's just insane. You think xbox is going to beat Switch and Wii U combined??!?!?! And by 10 million at that! hahahahaha What world are you living in? Guess you haven't noticed Switch sold 4+ million in 3 months despite it being sold out worldwide the entire time. Xbox just hit 30 million and it is dying.

Which brings me to the third bolded part: Xbox has sold all of 2 million consoles WW in the first 5 months of this year. It ain't getting close to 9 million, and it'll be even worse in the years to come. It **might** hit 7 million this year. It's dying.



Until supply issues end I don't know how to gauge the Switch. I think it will do 3DS numbers, especially once heavy hitters like Pokemon arrive.



Slownenberg said:
Jigsawx1 said:

So you think it will sell better then the Ps4? why it is behind the ps4 in weekly?

If the switch continous ( I dont think that) to outsell the Xone by 70k a week it would need  ~ 7 years to close the gap..........

 

My opinion is that the switch and Wiiu combined will be behind the Xone by 10 million after this "generation" so when the starting system dont get new gaming content.

And that the Xbox is at 50 million in the mid of 2020 is a very low prediction because it is selling ~9 million units per year so normally it should be around 55 million in the mid of 2020

 

ummm, are you for real?!

First bold part: Switch is very supply constrained, as we all know. It sells out everywhere (maybe not europe) within hours of restock. It's very hard to find. Current weekly sales are artificially low.

Second bold part: uhhhh, that's just insane. You think xbox is going to beat Switch and Wii U combined??!?!?! And by 10 million at that! hahahahaha What world are you living in? Guess you haven't noticed Switch sold 4+ million in 3 months despite it being sold out worldwide the entire time. Xbox just hit 30 million and it is dying.

Which brings me to the third bolded part: Xbox has sold all of 2 million consoles WW in the first 5 months of this year. It ain't getting close to 9 million, and it'll be even worse in the years to come. It **might** hit 7 million this year. It's dying.

In 1 year you will see xD

Without any 3rd party support it won`t will sell nicely over a long time, In germany (Duesseldorf, Cologne etc. there are no stock issues you can buy it everywhere without any problems, see the reality its a slightly better selling Wiiu. And yeah it sold 4 million but why'? Wiiu only gamers has to switch their systems because they dont get any more games.

Xbox will be the most powerful system by november 2017 alot of technic freaks will get it only to see their games in 4k, so as we all know it will sell nicely in the the end of the year.

but the bigger problem the switch has is the ps4 because this is the casual mainstream console this generation and everybody buys it if he`s a gamer or not so nintendo can`t hope for the casual wii effect.



Jigsawx1 said:
Slownenberg said:

 

ummm, are you for real?!

First bold part: Switch is very supply constrained, as we all know. It sells out everywhere (maybe not europe) within hours of restock. It's very hard to find. Current weekly sales are artificially low.

Second bold part: uhhhh, that's just insane. You think xbox is going to beat Switch and Wii U combined??!?!?! And by 10 million at that! hahahahaha What world are you living in? Guess you haven't noticed Switch sold 4+ million in 3 months despite it being sold out worldwide the entire time. Xbox just hit 30 million and it is dying.

Which brings me to the third bolded part: Xbox has sold all of 2 million consoles WW in the first 5 months of this year. It ain't getting close to 9 million, and it'll be even worse in the years to come. It **might** hit 7 million this year. It's dying.

In 1 year you will see xD

Without any 3rd party support it won`t will sell nicely over a long time, In germany (Duesseldorf, Cologne etc. there are no stock issues you can buy it everywhere without any problems, see the reality its a slightly better selling Wiiu. And yeah it sold 4 million but why'? Wiiu only gamers has to switch their systems because they dont get any more games.

Xbox will be the most powerful system by november 2017 alot of technic freaks will get it only to see their games in 4k, so as we all know it will sell nicely in the the end of the year.

but the bigger problem the switch has is the ps4 because this is the casual mainstream console this generation and everybody buys it if he`s a gamer or not so nintendo can`t hope for the casual wii effect.

That's at best a niche market, most Tech Freaks own a high end PC, and it plays all the same games as X1 minus maybe Halo. X1 has no clear path going forward, it relies too much on games that are available on other platforms. I do honestly believe lifetime X1X sales will be less than Wii U.

Lastly, you can't compare this to the Wii U. It's significantly over Wii U sales in less than half the time. It took Wii U 9 months to sell just shy of 3 million units, and it took Switch a little over 3 months to sell more than a million of that. You also can't compare the Switch to the PS4. PS4 to the public is seen as a traditional console, while the Switch is seen as a device where you can play similar PS4 quality games anywhere you go. They each have their own market, and they will both continue to be sucessful.



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H1 or H2 2020 if Ninty keeps on doing well and fixes production issues and at the same time MS keeps on producing and supporting XBOne, earlier if MS starts phasing out it, later if MS still produces and supports teh BOne and at the same time Ninty botches something in marketing or if it fixes supply issues later than predicted.



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hahahaha Jigsawx1 made his own thread about if the switch + wii u can beat just the xbox because he was too emotionally hurt by everyone in this thread understanding how obvious it is that the switch will sell way more than the xbox. wow. he must be 12

 

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Switch should sell around 3ds numbers at the rate it's going and x1 is never reaching that so I guess mid/late 2019?



Namiirei said:

I voted for "never".

Xone is at 30 millions or something now, and will be at 45 millions (or close) near the end of 2019.
Switch will be at 13 millions after march 2018, you can double this number if you're optimist. It's still only 26 millions for march 2019.

I don't expect the switch to get a long life, 2021/2022 at best.

And unlike 3DS, nintendo can't really make tons of models with the nintendo switch, we will probably never get a swich XL, or a new switch.

Why would Switch not have a long life? 3DS is in its 7th year.

And there is nothing stopping Nintendo from making multiple models of Switch.

Bandorr said:
Surprised at the amount of "nevers".

I'm not. A lot of people don't like that the Switch is successful.

konnichiwa said:
curl-6 said:
Does anyone seriously think it won't outsell it in the end? Even with supply issues, Switch's first year is on track to be bigger than any year of Xbone by a significant margin. And this is just the beginning; once supply constraints are solved, and hardware revisions, price cuts, and Pokemon start to hit, the Switch will be a monster.

For me it is the same as saying (does anyone think it seriously will outsell it).  We simply can't know yet what the holiday sales will be for Xone/Switch Great sure but who wins what will the gap be? So how can we know what 18-20 will be?

The evidence thus far seems pretty strongly in favour of Switch winning; it's on track to have a bigger year than Xbone has ever had despite severe supply shortages, and it still has price cuts, revisions, and Pokemon ahead of it while Xbone has already played most of its cards.



Slownenberg said:
Jigsawx1 said:

So you think it will sell better then the Ps4? why it is behind the ps4 in weekly?

If the switch continous ( I dont think that) to outsell the Xone by 70k a week it would need  ~ 7 years to close the gap..........

 

My opinion is that the switch and Wiiu combined will be behind the Xone by 10 million after this "generation" so when the starting system dont get new gaming content.

And that the Xbox is at 50 million in the mid of 2020 is a very low prediction because it is selling ~9 million units per year so normally it should be around 55 million in the mid of 2020

 

ummm, are you for real?!

First bold part: Switch is very supply constrained, as we all know. It sells out everywhere (maybe not europe) within hours of restock. It's very hard to find. Current weekly sales are artificially low.

Second bold part: uhhhh, that's just insane. You think xbox is going to beat Switch and Wii U combined??!?!?! And by 10 million at that! hahahahaha What world are you living in? Guess you haven't noticed Switch sold 4+ million in 3 months despite it being sold out worldwide the entire time. Xbox just hit 30 million and it is dying.

Which brings me to the third bolded part: Xbox has sold all of 2 million consoles WW in the first 5 months of this year. It ain't getting close to 9 million, and it'll be even worse in the years to come. It **might** hit 7 million this year. It's dying.

Using VGC XBO is having a better year than it did last yera so i wouldnt say that "its dying"