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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - If Eurogamer is right, How many NXs will sell?

 

How many NXs will sell WW Lifetime?

0 to 10 Million 84 14.53%
 
10.1 - 20 Million 82 14.19%
 
20.1 - 30 Million 108 18.69%
 
30.1 - 50 Million 123 21.28%
 
50.1 - 75 Million 83 14.36%
 
75 Million + !!!! = Nintendomination 98 16.96%
 
Total:578
Lonely_Dolphin on 28 July 2016
bananaking21 said:

by 2013 the 3DS already established itself. 

this thread is about if the eurogamer leak was true, and if it is, you can bet yourself that they are gonna price it high. specs wont allow a low price point. 

 

So outside factors no longer matter just because something is "established?" Then Nintendo should have no problem then since it's long been established that they own the handheld market and are always successful there.

I wouldn't bet on that, as pointed out many times already the Nvidia Shield which came out last year using Tegra is $200.



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zorg1000 on 28 July 2016
Faelco said:

zorg1000 said:

Its pretty hard to say that Nintendo games dont sell hardware.

But it's equally hard to say that Nintendo games will be huge system sellers for the NX when the Nintendo systems sales went from 250 millions to 75 millions in a generation, while keeping those Nintendo games. So either people don't care about the Nintendo games anymore, or there is another reason behind this fall and this reason could very well be here with the NX too (mobile, third party, console competition...).

The question is not "do Nintendo games sell consoles?", it's "how much?". And right now, it 2/3 less than a generation ago, so what will the next one be like ?

Not really, its easy to look at DS/Wii & 3DS/Wii U and assume that Nintendo is on a massive decline but thats forgetting that DS/Wii was a massive increase over any previous generation.

Wii sold about 40 million more than the 2nd best selling Nintendo console and DS sold almost 40 million more than 2nd best selling Nintendo handheld and DS+Wii sold 150 million more than the previous generation.

Im not denying that 3DS/Wii U are the worst selling handheld & console by Nintendo but its not by some huge magnitude and it certainly comes down to more than simply Nintendo games not being system sellers.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ryng on 28 July 2016
bananaking21 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:

 

Well you can't ignore SM3DL and MK7 that coincided with it, but even still, I highly doubt Nintendo is gonna make the same pricing mistake again.

2013 was the 3DS' best sales year and I'm sure mobile was in full swing by then, but I don't care about mobile to follow it so I can't say for 100% certainty.

by 2013 the 3DS already established itself. 

this thread is about if the eurogamer leak was true, and if it is, you can bet yourself that they are gonna price it high. specs wont allow a low price point. 

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1253496&highlight=

It's most likely gonna be 199€, 249€ at most.



zorg1000 on 28 July 2016
bananaking21 said:
zorg1000 said:

So were pretending that Nintendo games werent the main system sellers for 3DS?

the main reason it exploded was because its price cut that came 6 months after release, cutting off roughly 33% of its price. im not saying software didnt hardware, it certainly did. 

but 3DS started out when the smartphone was still rising, and wasnt swinging in full force like it is now. the ipad just had one year on the market, andriod tablets were non existent or if they were, they were shitty. 

A price cut doesnt make an unappealing product appealing so you cant use that as an excuse, all a price cut does is convince people who were already interested in it to go ahead and get it.

3DS has sold as well as it has because of system selling 1st party titles like Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros, Luigi's Mansion, Tomodachi Life and some big 3rd party titles like Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch, Dragon Quest.

If it didnt have those mass market appealing games than 3DS could cost $30 and wouldnt sell.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 28 July 2016
Hiku said:
zero129 said:

But Nintendo never said its a console or that it wont release a console later on.

All they said is it "Wont replace the Wii U or 3DS" but it could have "Many form factors" in otherwords it sounds exactly like a Handheld/Tablet Device.

Nintendo have refered to the NX as a console a few times. They're also reportedly (by the same site who correctly reported the same thing about some of Nintendo's previous systems in the past) ceasing production of the WiiU this year. And we are seeing signs of this with Nintendo's very low estimate of WiiU sales for this fiscal year, and the apparent stock issues in Japan. And of course the lack of new software.
If the replacement for WiiU isn't coming soon, they wouldn't have already begun preparing for its funeral.

The thing about not replacing the WiiU or the 3DS should be taken with a big grain of salt, seeing as Nintendo said that DS wouldn't replace the GBA.
Especially since Nintendo probably don't want the NX brand associated with the term "Wii".

Although whether this portable device will be the console is the big question here. It seems that that is what's being reported here. Although I haven't looked into exactly why they believe this to be the case. As in if that's their assumption, or if this is what has been reported to them.

If this really is all there is to it, then I think the NX is going to do poorly.

alot of people dont say the quote accurately, its actually that NX wont be a "simple" replacement for 3DS/Wii U meaning that its a new concept instead of being a 3DS 2 or Wii U2.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Louie on 29 July 2016
bananaking21 said:
Louie said:

 

those systems are from a different time in the market. move on. thats the problem Nintendo is having, they cant move on and dont understand the market. they are out of touch.

i am not making stuff up, the casual crowd consists of dozens of millions, as well as the core gaming market. citing that smash bros sold well across two systems does not indicate that "nintendo has the core". because it obviously doesnt. look at software sales for WiiU and compare them to the PS4, and tell me if nintendo has the core. they dont. what nintendo has is its fanbase. one that is shrinking with time. 

you pointing out pokemon go just proves my point. 75 million people on iOS and andriod downloaded pokemon go. thats what nintendo and its handhelds are competing with. and no, if they are interested in the software, they arent interested in the hardware. the fact that those 75 million eclipse 3DS total hardware sales by roughly 50% shows that. 

you are deluding yourself if you think hardware was never a major player in gaming, and that its all about the software. price, ease of use, accessibility, hardware capabilities all play a part.

I don't feel like arguing anymore, just giving a general statement about casuals, Nintendo being out of touch, predicting future sales based on current sales: 

Please people, before making up totally random stuff, go out and read stuff that teach you about the subject: Stuff like "The Innovator's Dilemma", "The Innovator's Solution", "Crossing the Chasm", "Blue Ocean Strategy", "From Zero to One", "Lead and Disrupt"... get acquainted with market tiers, types of consumers, the business model canvas, regression analysis (to judge whether a claim has any statistic basis), and so on. 

It is absolutely pointless to argue with each other when you have no factual basis to base your predictions on. 



Faelco on 29 July 2016
Louie said:
bananaking21 said:

those systems are from a different time in the market. move on. thats the problem Nintendo is having, they cant move on and dont understand the market. they are out of touch.

i am not making stuff up, the casual crowd consists of dozens of millions, as well as the core gaming market. citing that smash bros sold well across two systems does not indicate that "nintendo has the core". because it obviously doesnt. look at software sales for WiiU and compare them to the PS4, and tell me if nintendo has the core. they dont. what nintendo has is its fanbase. one that is shrinking with time. 

you pointing out pokemon go just proves my point. 75 million people on iOS and andriod downloaded pokemon go. thats what nintendo and its handhelds are competing with. and no, if they are interested in the software, they arent interested in the hardware. the fact that those 75 million eclipse 3DS total hardware sales by roughly 50% shows that. 

you are deluding yourself if you think hardware was never a major player in gaming, and that its all about the software. price, ease of use, accessibility, hardware capabilities all play a part.

I don't feel like arguing anymore, just giving a general statement about casuals, Nintendo being out of touch, predicting future sales based on current sales: 

Please people, before making up totally random stuff, go out and read stuff that teach you about the subject: Stuff like "The Innovator's Dilemma", "The Innovator's Solution", "Crossing the Chasm", "Blue Ocean Strategy", "From Zero to One", "Lead and Disrupt"... get acquainted with market tiers, types of consumers, the business model canvas, regression analysis (to judge whether a claim has any statistic basis), and so on. 

It is absolutely pointless to argue with each other when you have no factual basis to base your predictions on. 

Right, because you can prove your own predictions with 1+1=2. Don't worry, I've been trained at least partially to marketing, business model, innovation and the really usual blue ocean strategy, so I can understand if you explain. From what we know about it, NX does not really follow a blue ocean strategy. An hybrid product between 2 markets does not necessarily mean a blue ocean, especially when both markets are crowded (handheld/mobile on one side, home consoles on the other). Saying "OK, we can't win on 2 markets so we'll try to make a mix of both to differentiate ourselves" isn't a blue ocean strategy, and is just a small innovation to be different. They will still compete against mobiles, PS4, Xbox and PC (and the point of the blue ocean strategy is to have ideally no competition...). 

 

You can show us a in-depth analysis of the market and the future of the NX with all your knowledge if you want, I would be really happy to read it if you can prove anything with it. It would make a perfect post to read again in a few months/years. We could even send it to Nintendo, because they kinda missed something somewhere when they made the Wii U, so it could be useful for everyone ^^. Otherwise, if you can only talk about this knowledge and tell people to learn it, then you're just like any other video game forumer and you can continue to make predictions without "factual basis" with us ;) We're on a video game forum and a prediction thread by the way, that's the whole point. After all, you can always find clueless forumers like us who turn out to be right with their predictions, when the renowned specialists screw up most of the time...



Nettles on 29 July 2016

I will say 45 million, I think some kind of pokemon go functionality/bonus feature will help it.



Jumpin on 29 July 2016

If the price is right, and the marketing is on point, I can see it doing anywhere between 60 million and 160 million. This is the most significant jump the handheld industry has ever made between generations. It also looks like the most significant developer support a handheld has ever received. Especially with Nintendo backing it 100% instead of their usual 15-35%



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Louie on 29 July 2016
Faelco said:
Louie said:

 

Right, because you can prove your own predictions with 1+1=2. Don't worry, I've been trained at least partially to marketing, business model, innovation and the really usual blue ocean strategy, so I can understand if you explain. From what we know about it, NX does not really follow a blue ocean strategy. An hybrid product between 2 markets does not necessarily mean a blue ocean, especially when both markets are crowded (handheld/mobile on one side, home consoles on the other). Saying "OK, we can't win on 2 markets so we'll try to make a mix of both to differentiate ourselves" isn't a blue ocean strategy, and is just a small innovation to be different. They will still compete against mobiles, PS4, Xbox and PC (and the point of the blue ocean strategy is to have ideally no competition...). 

 

You can show us a in-depth analysis of the market and the future of the NX with all your knowledge if you want, I would be really happy to read it if you can prove anything with it. It would make a perfect post to read again in a few months/years. We could even send it to Nintendo, because they kinda missed something somewhere when they made the Wii U, so it could be useful for everyone ^^. Otherwise, if you can only talk about this knowledge and tell people to learn it, then you're just like any other video game forumer and you can continue to make predictions without "factual basis" with us ;) We're on a video game forum and a prediction thread by the way, that's the whole point. After all, you can always find clueless forumers like us who turn out to be right with their predictions, when the renowned specialists screw up most of the time...

Was I talking to you? If you know your stuff that is awesome and I appreciate it - I really mean it. I joined these forums to discuss things and it's genuinely interesting to hear different arguments for or against the success of a console. But some posts here are clearly just written based on the poster's wishes and personal preferences for their gaming consoles - and that's the ones I've been adressing in that post.

Just don't play the arrogant-dude-on-a-forum-guy card on me. Most of what you've accused me of saying or claiming is stuff I never said or claimed to know. I don't know if NX is gonna be successful and I never said so. I don't know if it will be based on any of the strategies Nintendo used in the past and I never said so. I never said it had anything to do with Blue Ocean Strategy. I am definitely not better at knowing Nintendo's market than Nintendo themselves and I never claimed to be, even though you act as if I did. I never said I wanted to lecture people about anything, I just said at least go read some stuff before you make up things about "casuals" and "hardcores" because these are just buzzwords used for marketing. That's the whole point: Don't go around claiming you know stuff you don't know. 

And don't try to make this an "you arrogant guy against us sane people" kind of argument. I'm not attacking the average poster. I'm pointing out claims based simply on personal preference that are presented as if it was totally obvious that what the poster said was true. As you said, this is a prediction thread. Not a "show us your personal preference thread". In fact, most posts written in this thread are perfectly in line with what I oh-so-arrogantly hope a post to be: A simple prediction, just like mine.