I see a lot of scenarios here but really I think there's a simpler way to view this.
Games will be made for -> Windows 10
PC = Windows 10
Xbox One = Windows 10
Tablets/Laptop = Windows 10
So games will be made and be compatible for all of these devices under one platform which is Windows 10.
Because PCs and Tablets keep getting more powerful every years, Xbox has to get more powerful too.
Releasing a new slim X1 with the ability to upgrade both HDD and GPU/RAM would be their main goal. I imagine they'll have two removable parts which they'll provide upgrade every 2.5 years for GPU/RAM and every now and then a new HDD.
X1 would still be X1, closed platform, running Windows 10 yes but unable to run complexe applications like Excel or Photoshop. It's not a PC it's a console with the ability to upgrade.
MS will have to gauge when they do offer upgrades and at what prices. Also after how long would they allow develpoment to cease for an older version of the X1.
There are a lot of positives to this move. One of them being that MS will spend more on making exclusive to W10 games because they will want to attract people to their platform. Also devs that develop for PC will have more incentive to also develop for X1 since they'll share the same architecture and even more, they might be able to share the same power and control systems. To me, unifying these deviced under one platform is a step in the right direction. You choose which device you want to play your games on and can continue on another device no preoblem. Devs that develop for X1 also get the W10 PC user base, the W10 Tablet user base and maybe at some point the W10 Phone user base which is more encouraging than having to develop for every devices there is.
To those saying that MS did this because they are losing to Sony well I don't think you have followed MS all these years. Forward compatibility was talked by MS long before X1 was released. Also the X1 was supposed to released at the same time as W10 and DirectX12 so it would implement these natively but Sony seems to have forced them to release earlier.
The negatives imo lies more in the console warriors will no longer brag about X1 not having true/retail/full/best visuals/exclusives.