Just watching the Media Create/Famitsu sales threads the last few weeks, man is Nintendo taking it on the chin in Japan. 

Wii U is a complete disaster there, now after Smash, Mario Kart 8, Kirby, and Mario Party baseline sales are still abysmal, this is easily going to be their worst selling console ever in Japan. 

3DS sales are holding OK, but starting to show slippage, and I'm just not sure how many more hardware revisions and how many more Pokemon/Mon Hun/Yokai Watch games can be thrown out before you're simply just selling to the same people who already have the system. I suspect in a year from now we're looking at a 3DS baseline of around 24-28k/week or so. 

I really don't think they can wait for 2017 for NX, especially in Japan. It's not like Wii U is really doing great in North America or Europe either, but Japan is a total mess, and 3DS can't carry on like this for another 2 years either IMO unless they want to hand the entire Japanese market to Sony. 

Whatever NX is, whether its a handheld or a fusion multi-format series of devices or whatever ... Japan desperately needs some (real) new Nintendo hardware. 

No, Nintendo needs support. PS4 is selling like water because every week it has 3/4 new games. That's what Wii U needs. Just release another hardware won't make new games bloom of nowhere

That's a bit extreme

2014 Q1-850k
2015 Q1-735k

3DS+Wii U are down about 15% YoY, not nearly as doomed as ur making things out to be.

NintenDOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

It's not so Nintedoooom, I'm saying I don't think these two platforms can really hold the fort for Nintendo until 2017.

3DS is only holding relatively OK because it has a new hardware revision this year whereas last year they didn't, but the YoY impact of that lessens the further out from release you get on that. Even there though YoY declines are starting to become noticable, this time next year we likely are talking about 3DS sales that in the 20ks/week which is not really where you want to be if you're Nintendo.

Wii U obvioulsy is just a lost cause entirely in Japan. Barring Splatoon becoming the new Pokemon, Wii U is just finished there. Wii U should be UP not down after MK8/Smash etc. too, there has a base line decline rather than increase (even just a minor one) which is particularily sad. 

Assuming a year from now (March 2016) we're in the 22k-28k/week for 3DS (combined) and Wii U is in that ugly 5k-6k/week range, which I think is a fairly reasonable projection .... can they really just hold that until 2017? I don't see it. 

From a Japan POV, NX needs to be out by the second half of 2016, maybe even sooner to be honest. 

New 3DS released about 6 months ago, at some point u have to stop using that as an excuse for holding well YoY.

Like i said, thru the first quarter Nintendo hardware is down 15% YoY, ur really making it seem worse than it needs to be.

If it decreases another 15-20% next YoY, then my number projections are fairly spot on for 2016 ... you think Nintendo can deal with sales that low for another year into spring 2017? 

I personally don't see it. Nintendo seems to be more reactive to Japanese sales trends too, Iwata always seems to really watch weekly sales in Japan like a hawk. 

Yep. At best it will hold "respectable" numbers for another year. NX is coming at leatest holiday 2016.

Nah. They're ok. New games happen all the time. Otherwise they can do what Sony does and release limited edition N3DSs and they will sell like drugs. I'm kinda shocked that Nintendo never did this with Wii U.

I'd say the sales right now are about the lower end of what Nintendo will tolerate as acceptable for the Japanese market. Any further decline though ... would be problematic in their eyes, not just because of a decline but a general decrease in standing in the Japanese market as a whole. You can't let that go on too long otherwise others like Sony will gain traction and then you are going to have hard time slowing them down if they gain too much momentum. 

I'm to starting to feel like Dragon Quest XI is going to be for the PS3/PS4 like DQ Heroes was. 

I have to say I'm surprised at how the PS4 has rebounded there, didn't think Sony could pull it off.