zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
It's not so Nintedoooom, I'm saying I don't think these two platforms can really hold the fort for Nintendo until 2017.
From a Japan POV, NX needs to be out by the second half of 2016, maybe even sooner to be honest.
3DS is only holding relatively OK because it has a new hardware revision this year whereas last year they didn't, but the YoY impact of that lessens the further out from release you get on that. Even there though YoY declines are starting to become noticable, this time next year we likely are talking about 3DS sales that in the 20ks/week which is not really where you want to be if you're Nintendo.
Wii U obvioulsy is just a lost cause entirely in Japan. Barring Splatoon becoming the new Pokemon, Wii U is just finished there. Wii U should be UP not down after MK8/Smash etc. too, there has a base line decline rather than increase (even just a minor one) which is particularily sad.
Assuming a year from now (March 2016) we're in the 22k-28k/week for 3DS (combined) and Wii U is in that ugly 5k-6k/week range, which I think is a fairly reasonable projection .... can the really just hold that until 2017? I don't see it.
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New 3DS released about 6 months ago, at some point u have to stop using that as an excuse for holding well YoY.
Like i said, thru the first quarter Nintendo hardware is down 15% YoY, ur really making it seem worse than it needs to be.
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If it decreases another 15-20% next YoY, then my number projections are fairly spot on for 2016 ... you think Nintendo can deal with sales that low for another year into spring 2017?
I personally don't see it. Nintendo seems to be more reactive to Japanese sales trends too, Iwata always seems to really watch weekly sales in Japan like a hawk.
