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10 Week CountDown 2014!! Overall Winner is: Eikichi!!! Congrats!

Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week CountDown 2014!! Overall Winner is: Eikichi!!! Congrats!

Hi everyone, non-gravity has asked some of the vets to take over this year's 10-Week Countdown thread, as he's busy making a record number of toys for Santa. I took up the call to arms and so will be doing my very best to keep everything updated as quickly as possible whenever numbers show up. This is one of VGC's most popular yearly threads and it's a lot of fun, so without further ado, the 10 week countdown prediction thread begins!

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Just to explain a bit. The 10 week countdown is similar to monthly npd prediction threads in that the idea is to make hardware sales predictions for the last and most interesting 10 weeks of the year. This year we will do predictions for PS4, Xbox1, 3DS, PSV, and WiiU. This thread also function to facilitate discussion about what we all expect for the last ten weeks of the year. This feature has been somewhat of a tradition starting in 2007, having since been hosted by TWRoO, non-gravity, Michael-5, and now myself.

This year the final ten weeks run from the week ending November 1st to the week ending January 3rd. Going by the calendar this is set 1 day earlier than last year, which was the 10 weeks ending January 4th. Black Friday has also shifted 1 week back as well since November ends at the end of the week now instead of the middle. This means that unlike previous years Black Friday falls in week 5 (last year it was week 5 as well though). (keep in mind that the "week ending" dates refer to the Saturday, which is when the tracking week ends for America and Europe, but Japan tracking ends on a Sunday, so add 1 day onto the dates below)

Pre Week: 18th Oct - 25th Oct

Week 1: 26th Oct – 1st Nov
Week 2: 2nd Nov - 8th Nov
Week 3: 9th Nov - 15th Nov
Week 4: 18th Nov - 22nd Nov
Week 5: 23rd Nov – 29th Nov
Week 6: 30th Nov – 6th Dec
Week 7: 7th Dec - 13th Dec
Week 8: 14th Dec – 20th Dec
Week 9: 21st Dec - 27th Dec
Week 10: 28th Dec – 3rd Jan

Here is a table of the upcoming games fthat could affect weekly sales.

Here are some sales comparisons to help anyone wanting to make a prediction.
Note: I obtained the following data from Vgchartz weekly totals. In this article, Q1-Q3 accounts for weeks 1-39 (non-gravity included a 40th week, which shouldn't be there).



The following show the weekly sales for the last 10 weeks of 2011, 2012, and 2013 as well as the 3 weeks leading up to and one week following them in thousands of units.
All tables have been updated as of 10/30/14. Note that previous 10 week countdown threads may have different numbers due to currently adjusted sales totals.


You may vote using the following formula or table. Please insert your predictions however you'd like, but this is easiest for everyone!
Note: All numbers that I have or will provide will be done using the thousands digits. 1 million is written as 1000. 557,000 is written as 557. Please follow that guideline and there will be no need for further violence. Thanks! (Please direct all your concerns about previous violence to your local game shop)

Platform Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10
Playstation 4                    
Xbox 1                    
Wii U                    
3DS                    
Playstation Vita                    

UNDER CONSTRUCTION!



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How does the scoring work? 

When the VGChartz numbers come in I will take the percentage your predictions are off from these numbers and turn this into your score. Naturally the person with the lowest score has had the best prediction. In excel the formula for this looks like =MIN(ROUND(ABS(LN(Predicted/Real)*100);0);100). I will have weekly and overall rankings for PS3, X360, 3DS, Vita, WiiU, PS4, One, Consoles, Handhelds, Overall, and maybe others (suggestions?). Because the nature of VGChartz is that the numbers get adjusted over time I will declare a winner at the end of this competition in early January and in April after VGChartz has adjusted for console shipments reported in Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft’s Fiscal Year reports. I've limited the maximum score to 100. *'s mean you haven't made a prediction for that console, which will net you the full score of 100 to make things easier for me.

 

Here are the predictions made so far:


 

 

CONSTRUCTION! NOTHING TO SEE HERE MOVE ALONG (but come back later for candy)

Updated Numbers:

 



Here is where all the week-to-week results shall be posted:

 

 

CONSTRUCTION!
HERE IS THE CANDY I PRO...NO WAIT, NOT YET. COME BACK LATER



Here is a handy link to last year's thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=170849&page=1

You will also find below a breakdown of scoring based on console entry every week, and a summary total below that.

UPdated Numbers and Titles:

Week 1:

Week 2:

Week 3:

Week 4:



Week 5:

CONSTRUCTION!
NOW WHERE THE DEVIL IS THAT CANDY? I'LL JUST KEEP CHECKING THE SAME PLACES AND HOPE NOBODY NOTICES I CAN'T FIND IT



Here is the summary totals by week.

 

CONSTRUCTION!
AH NOW THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE, HERE ARE ALL THOSE DELICIOUS VEGETABLES I PROMISED. DON'T THEY LOOK YUMMY! OH BOY YOU ARE A LUCKY DUCK!

 

 

 



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These are all the previous 10-week countdown threads along with the winner of each.

2007 - 3p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=9053 - Zucas 

2008 - 8p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=45704 - BHR-3
Final Results - http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/5646/10-week-countdown-2008-results/ - BHR-3

2009 - 23+1p http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=89573 - 09tarheel
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117889 - koffieboon

2010 - 17+6p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117788 - Luthor
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4255275 - Carl2291

2011 - 26+1p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=135242 - Pineapple 
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4841711 - jonop

2012 - 38p - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=148950 - Pineapple for the 2nd time!
Final Results - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5752488 - Mr. Average

 

CONSTRUCTION!
THANKS TO EVERYONE WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE ANNUAL VEGETABLE GIVE-AWAY, HOPE TO SEE YOU NEXT YEAR!
-Prof

 

2014 10-Week Countdown has concluded! Winners are as follows:

Pre-adjustments:

Including first week edits:
BHR-3 (overall #1)
PDF (overall #2)
TechnoHobbit (overall #3)

Non-editted predictions:
Eikichi134 (overall #4)
Carl2291 (overall  #5)
benji232 (overall #6)



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Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:
Tagged!


Team tagged!



Tsubasa Ozora

Keiner kann ihn bremsen, keiner macht ihm was vor. Immer der richtige Schuss, immer zur richtigen Zeit. Superfussball, Fairer Fussball. Er ist unser Torschützenkönig und Held.

I see the thread is taking shape



What? I don't want vegetables, I want that candy you promised!

Looking forward to seeing the thread take off



Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702