The Credibility of VGChartz

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Before a mod locks this. Wait. While there have been threads stating that DS has passed PS2, there hasnt been a single thread arguing against said numbers with cold, hard facts along with how the credibility of this sites numbers will be greatly hurt if when VGChartz is proved once again to be wrong on this matter. This is not a thread to debate which console is number 1. This is not a thread where people come in and hate on the other fanbase or either console. This is not a thread to argue which console is number 1. This is a thread to debate the PS2 numbers being presented as fact, along with the article being presented as fact, and how this is harmful for the credibility of VGChartz.

As many of you are aware, VGChartz recently stated in an article that the DS had passed the PS2 in units sold. This "news" has been widely spread over the Internet, being reported by several other sites and posted on other forums/blogs. Its pretty big for VGChartz that so many other sites have used the numbers here.

Now. The problem is this - The numbers are wrong. VGChartz just put out an article saying something that is wrong. Let me explain myself before you just say "No Carl, fuck you!".

VGChartz are currently showing the following numbers.

Cool, right? Wrong. Those PS2 numbers? 153.68 Million units. Something funny about those numbers and Ill tell you what it is. In November 2011, Sony had shipped 153.7 Million PlayStation 2 consoles. If VGChartz numbers are true it must mean that the PlayStation 2 hasn't yet sold out that shipment. Sony wouldnt have shipped any more units.

What really happened after that? Shock, horror. Sony shipped more units! As of March 2012, the PS2 had shifted 155.1 Million units Worldwide.

It gets worse. In the April-July Quarter of 2012, the PS2 shipped an additional 1 to 1.1 Million units. How can we know this? From Sonys own statements. Sony said the PS3 and PS2 shipped a combined 2.8 Million for the Quarter. We also know that PS3 was down YoY in said Quarter (It shipped 1.8 Million in the same 2011 Q). That leaves a minimum of 1 Million PS2s shipped in the Quarter, taking the total PS2 shipments to a minimum of 156.1 Million units Worldwide. More will have been shipped since, and considering that Sony shipped 1.6-1.7 Million units in Q1/Q2, its safe to say that the PS2 will have steadily gone by the 157 Million mark.

We will stick with 156.1 Million shipments. Its the only real number that we can fairly use. So yeah. Using this number, VGChartz are actively saying that there are ~2.4 Million PlayStation 2 units in ships, in stores or in warehouses.

"But... But you're on VGChartz! How can you discredit the numbers you use on a daily basis!?"

Here is where a lot of people mis-understand VGChartz. The numbers here are never to be taken as fact. They are estimations. They can be close, they can be far away, but they are straight up estimations.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/82746/editorial-why-it-is-so-easy-to-blame-vgchartz/ - From Brett himself. Read it if you havent already.

"Ever since the formation of VGChartz, we have faced the same difficult scenario. Every piece of data we report is an estimate. It will always be higher or lower than the actual figure and there will always be some for which the figure is favourable and some for which the figure is not."

"However, even with the greatest of diligence, our data is still just an estimate so whenever quoting a figure from VGChartz it should be listed as an estimate".

That article came up after Aaron Greenberg "LOLd" at VGChartz numbers. It went quite well in upping the credibility of VGChartz in the eyes of people who normally say the site is pure silly made up numbers. People finally started to understand that VGChartz numbers aren't to be taken as fact and they were indeed actually pretty good for estimations.

Now, I fear the credibility of the site could be taking a turn for the worse. Its quite clear as posted above that the VGChartz numbers for PS2 are wrong. When Sony confirm the next milestone, 160 Million (Its clearly going to hit that number next Year)... What will it say for VGChartz numbers? Site credibility will take a pretty big hit after pushing out that article. The many people who VGC finally got to accept the numbers for what they are will start to ask questions. They will be laughed at again. Hell, users on this site will start to wonder about the credibility of the numbers.

It would be really nice to hear from someone on the sales team. William. Brett. Whoever else is on the team. Why are you obviously undertracking the PS2? Why are you pushing out an article that is quite clearly wrong? Do you no longer care for the sites credibility now that people are seemingly starting to accept the numbers for what they are?

Its really strange how such an obvious problem with the numbers isnt being addressed.

tldr - The numbers shown on VGChartz are quite clearly wrong. They make no sense. When these numbers are being pushed out as factual in an article, it can be seriously detrimental to the credibility of VGChartz.

If this gets locked, then so be it. Was worth writing down either way.

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Somebody had to say it.......

Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

I still believe that the PS2 holds the crown as highest selling Console/video game machine.

I was surprised about the thread the other day. We know Ps2 is above DS and looks like it will continue in that way.

People here said that vg is 15% off, but damn ps2 underttacked by a coulpe mills O_0


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Pavolink said:
I was surprised about the thread the other day. We know Ps2 is above DS and looks like it will continue in that way.

That's exactly what I was going to post. I too was really surprised that someone actually made an article stating so bluntly something that we all know isn't true or accurate.

You have all my support in this thread @Carl2291.

There several threads created this week about number from previous gen (hardware or software) but the guys here forgot the VGChartz was born in 2007... so before this generation (2006) the VGChartz didn't track any sales... the PS1, PS2, Xbox, GC, etc sales are estimated in articles found in google dated before 2006.

On example...

This thread http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=151477 sys the PSP is close to outsell the PS1 in Japan but that's not really true, see below:

PS1 lifetime Japan sales: 21.59 million shipped (last shipment)
PSP today Japan sales: 19.35 million sold

Ok. You can say I'm comparing shipped x sold but there are more than 2 million units on shelves for PS1 in Japan? That's impossible... no console or portable have this amount of units on shelves at end of this gen... so the real PS1 sales in Japan is over 21 million and near 21.59 million.

I think PSP will never reach 21 million lifetime in Japan.

The guys here have to stop to use the old (and not accurate) numbers from previous gen.

Don't they hire contract writers? So the writers aren't necessarily the view of vgchartz. But obviously that makes the site look stupid. 

Again I could care less what sold more, they both sold a ton. 

but when vgchartz margin for error in sales is way more than 1%. having articles stating something has passed another while still in that margin of error is just bad analysis which is bad because this site is supposed to be a sales analysis site. Not knowing how to correctly analyze data is a problem.

The same can be applied in reverse. If the two number get within the margin of error it's incorrect to declare either of them higher, atleast without noting the margin for error. Obviously statements by sony, or nintendo can produce more exact estimates.

To be fair to vgchartz, a lot of mainstream outlets fail to use statistics correctly with elections etc, However vgchartz is supposed to be a statistics website. So you'd think they'd use basic statistics correctly. http://www.robertniles.com/stats/margin.shtml
However the data suggesting they haven't tracked things and the fact that they're using data to a precision of 0.006% to declare something is silly when everyone knows VGC isn't that precise. Personally I think the DS will pass the PS2, and I think that's great. So I'm not trying to take anything away from the DS. 

But again, I think vgchartz credibility isn't very high anyways. They are best used as a gist of sales mechanism.

SnakeDrake said:
People here said that vg is 15% off, but damn ps2 underttacked by a coulpe mills O_0

We have used a +/- 10% range of accuracy for a few Years now. Obviously there is no known range but it seems to fit quite well.

The problem with this rule though comes when the numbers themself are so large. You cant really use them on those numbers. You can use them on Yearly numbers though. The PS2 had shipped ~1.6 Million between January and July 2012. Being 160k off wouldnt really be anything major but it just looks like a 100% undertrack. Thats extremely alarming.

We know that the majority of PS2 sales now come from places with very little tracking, or no tracking at all. Its understandable how VGChartz can be some way off on numbers from these markets and the numbers we do get are far, far better than nothing... But these numbers simply should never be pushed out as fact like they were in the article.

It's very probable that the PS2 still has the higher amount of sales, but 2.4 million PS2s in stores and warehouses worldwide doesn't sound that impossible. Perhaps it sold a million or so more than what VGChartz is reporting but only somebody with priority issues would freak out about it. DS will outsell the PS2 within a few months anyway.

But you're right about VGChartz not being very credible. It's all guesstimating and there is no transparency in the data whatsoever.

PSN: Chrizum