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I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

Forums - Sales Discussion - I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

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kowenicki said:
daveJ said:

I have no doubts the PS3 will win this gen, but 115 might be 5 million to much, see my sig I predicted this back in 2009.
I predict its sales next year will be even better than this year, much stronger game lineup and probably a pricecut, though this depends on the YEN.

sales will not increase next year.

heres what you said a few days ago about PS3's black friday weeks sales

kowenicki said:

They will both be down.  I didnt say the 360 wouldnt.  People here think the PS3 will be up... zero chance of that.

now you were totally wrong with that, Im thinking you will be this time as well 

All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ saidTrue the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

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It might hit 90 mil, maybe 95, but i doubt even 100 mil. The next gen consoles are going to kill it, and the cheaper alternatives like the 360 and Wii are going to give it an even harder time; The Wii in particular is going to eventually hit around 50-80 dollars with bundles, and the casuals are going to snap it up. The core gamers will already have moved on to the major consoles by 2014 and only a few nitpickers or late to the party gamers will really bother with it.



Games are fun.

bananaking21 said:
what i really think will help PS3 sell after PS4 launches is PSN, there is no reason why indie developers would stop supporting PSN and making games for it. PS3 in a couple of years could be bought for 99$ and used to play indie games that cost about 5/10 bucks each. i think this will help move consoles after PS4 is launched and sony drops support. as for your prediction, i dont think so, maybe but i would say 95~105 million life time


I agree. 95-100m but not 115



Yay!!!

Aren't you the same guy who predicted the PSV would sell 770k worldwide last week?



daveJ said:
kowenicki said:
daveJ said:

I have no doubts the PS3 will win this gen, but 115 might be 5 million to much, see my sig I predicted this back in 2009.
I predict its sales next year will be even better than this year, much stronger game lineup and probably a pricecut, though this depends on the YEN.

sales will not increase next year.

heres what you said a few days ago about PS3's black friday weeks sales

kowenicki said:

 

They will both be down.  I didnt say the 360 wouldnt.  People here think the PS3 will be up... zero chance of that.

now you were totally wrong with that, Im thinking you will be this time as well 

 

the ps3 was down wasn't it?  Last year they did something like 900k and this year they are around 700k... that is down right?



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enditall727 said:
PS3 hitting 100 mill!

^^ that's all i give a damn about..


That is a big nice round number and a more realistic one.

30 m to go...



No.

If the Wii was retired and removed from shelves right now, it would still remain the #1 selling console this gen worldwide.

Below is worldwide sales in millions (rounded) based on VGC data from http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2011/Global/
2012 - WiiU releases; 2013 neXtBox and PS4 release
2016 - All 3 from this gen will be retired by now.
2013 to 2016 are estimations based on current and guestimated YOY declines where above assumptions are true.

  2010 2011 2012 (curr + est for dec) 2013 2014 2015 2016
Wii 17.3 11.6 (-33%) 5.5 (-53%) 3.3m (-40%) 2.2m (-33%) 1.5m (-32%) 0
PS3 13.9 14.1 (+1%) 10.5 (-26%) 6m 4m 2.8m 1.5m
X360 13.3 13.8 (+4%) 9.4 (-32%) 5.6m 3.4m 2.2m 1m

As you can see, PS360 are only about one year behind the decline curve of Wii. Obvious difference is that Wii peaked much higher and earlier. But the gen is on decline and early next year as MSony begin confirming their next gen consoles, this continue the dramatic decline. (btw, currently PS360 are closer to 35 and 40% declines. I'm expecting these last 5 weeks to improve that % a little bit, but still have about a 30% drop overall and larger in 2013 due to next gen)

With that decline, we have the following yearly total sums of consoles sold:


2010
2011
2012 (curr + est for dec)
2013
2014
2015
2016
Wii
82.1
93.7
99.2
102.5
104.7
106.2

PS3
46.4
60.5
71.0
77.0
81.0
83.8
85.3
X360
50.0
63.8
73.2
78.8
82.2
84.4
85.4

Understanding the YOY decline, should prove without a doubt that Wii will remain the generational leader overall. It simply impossible to have any other outcome.

You have to realize the fact that PS360 will be down by about 1/3 this year. That there is no way MSony will NOT launch their successors next year given that WiiU is out and they have had such a decline YOY. Then due to the successors launching, you'll see a larger decline of up to 1/2. Followed by a relatively slower decline the years following that with a full retirement near their 10th years.

Even if I'm off by a logically significant difference of say 5m or 10m, there is still no way either of them will break 100m and thus no way to pass Wii.



83-84 million.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

100 million seems very possible when its all said and done.



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superchunk said:

No.

If the Wii was retired and removed from shelves right now, it would still remain the #1 selling console this gen worldwide.

Below is worldwide sales in millions (rounded) based on VGC data from http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2011/Global/
2012 - WiiU releases; 2013 neXtBox and PS4 release
2016 - All 3 from this gen will be retired by now.
2013 to 2016 are estimations based on current and guestimated YOY declines where above assumptions are true.

  2010 2011 2012 (curr + est for dec) 2013 2014 2015 2016
Wii 17.3 11.6 (-33%) 5.5 (-53%) 3.3m (-40%) 2.2m (-33%) 1.5m (-32%) 0
PS3 13.9 14.1 (+1%) 10.5 (-26%) 6m 4m 2.8m 1.5m
X360 13.3 13.8 (+4%) 9.4 (-32%) 5.6m 3.4m 2.2m 1m

As you can see, PS360 are only about one year behind the decline curve of Wii. Obvious difference is that Wii peaked much higher and earlier. But the gen is on decline and early next year as MSony begin confirming their next gen consoles, this continue the dramatic decline. (btw, currently PS360 are closer to 35 and 40% declines. I'm expecting these last 5 weeks to improve that % a little bit, but still have about a 30% drop overall and larger in 2013 due to next gen)

With that decline, we have the following yearly total sums of consoles sold:


2010
2011
2012 (curr + est for dec)
2013
2014
2015
2016
Wii
82.1
93.7
99.2
102.5
104.7
106.2

PS3
46.4
60.5
71.0
77.0
81.0
83.8
85.3
X360
50.0
63.8
73.2
78.8
82.2
84.4
85.4

Understanding the YOY decline, should prove without a doubt that Wii will remain the generational leader overall. It simply impossible to have any other outcome.

You have to realize the fact that PS360 will be down by about 1/3 this year. That there is no way MSony will NOT launch their successors next year given that WiiU is out and they have had such a decline YOY. Then due to the successors launching, you'll see a larger decline of up to 1/2. Followed by a relatively slower decline the years following that with a full retirement near their 10th years.

Even if I'm off by a logically significant difference of say 5m or 10m, there is still no way either of them will break 100m and thus no way to pass Wii.

those estimates for december are crazy.  you think the wii is going to have almost a 2 million sells month in december? You think the 360 is going to sell 50% less than it did last year in december?  craziness I tell you, crazy, but don't worry, I still respect you