No.

If the Wii was retired and removed from shelves right now, it would still remain the #1 selling console this gen worldwide.

Below is worldwide sales in millions (rounded) based on VGC data from http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2011/Global/
2012 - WiiU releases; 2013 neXtBox and PS4 release
2016 - All 3 from this gen will be retired by now.
2013 to 2016 are estimations based on current and guestimated YOY declines where above assumptions are true.

As you can see, PS360 are only about one year behind the decline curve of Wii. Obvious difference is that Wii peaked much higher and earlier. But the gen is on decline and early next year as MSony begin confirming their next gen consoles, this continue the dramatic decline. (btw, currently PS360 are closer to 35 and 40% declines. I'm expecting these last 5 weeks to improve that % a little bit, but still have about a 30% drop overall and larger in 2013 due to next gen)

With that decline, we have the following yearly total sums of consoles sold:

Understanding the YOY decline, should prove without a doubt that Wii will remain the generational leader overall. It simply impossible to have any other outcome.

You have to realize the fact that PS360 will be down by about 1/3 this year. That there is no way MSony will NOT launch their successors next year given that WiiU is out and they have had such a decline YOY. Then due to the successors launching, you'll see a larger decline of up to 1/2. Followed by a relatively slower decline the years following that with a full retirement near their 10th years.

Even if I'm off by a logically significant difference of say 5m or 10m, there is still no way either of them will break 100m and thus no way to pass Wii.

83-84 million.

100 million seems very possible when its all said and done.

those estimates for december are crazy.  you think the wii is going to have almost a 2 million sells month in december? You think the 360 is going to sell 50% less than it did last year in december?  craziness I tell you, crazy, but don't worry, I still respect you

1) The sales are for last week of November (VGC is only through November 24) as well as all of December. That's 5 weeks.
2) I could very well be too low on PS360 this december WW. But I did throw in that possibility in my last paragraph and even if they sale 3m this December, in the long run it won't matter. Neither of them will pass Wii, even if it left the market today.

I`m not the best person to speak about sales or projections, but i know that this generation will end in a way that i think no generation ended: usually there`s one clear winner and once that generation is replaced the winner of the then previous generation keeps on selling because there`s appeal even though it`s sales are low.

But what we have this generation is 3 "winners" and now we will have 3 old consoles + 3 new consoles in a matter of a year, versus your usual 1 old console + 3 new consoles.
The important question is, is the market big enough to handle all 6 of them - even if for a couple of years - or will someone be left behind?
My incomplete answer is yes. And i believe the first ones to pay the price will be 360 and PS3 simply because they basically offer the same content. Whereas Wii offers something different. Not to mention that Wii will reach the 99 price tag first, leaving that part of the market that can`t/won`t pay more for consoles, all for itself. And people will remember that!

So, i don`t exactly agree with all the projections because i don`t think they take this into account. But maybe i`m wrong.

I agree that the Wii will remain market leader, for sure.  I do tend to think there is a chance we might have a different leader in each major market though.  I'm pretty confident that the 360 will overtake the wii in NA and that the Wii will retain its lead in Japan.  The big question is if the ps3 can topple wii in Europe.  Overall, I expect the consoles to retain their respective sales positions as far as global position with the slight chance of ps3 overtaking the xbox, but their sales will be so close together that this would in the end be negligible...

The playstation 3 is down 20% YOY(Black Friday can't make up for the rest of the year). Rumors all seem to be pointing towards a 2013 release of the next playstation or at latest 2014.

The ps3 won't just drop like a rock, but sony will obviously not be able to support the playstation 3 as much once the next playstation comes out. But its insane to believe the playstation 3 will only drop 7% next year considering how much it dropped this year and how the next wave of new consoles are just coming out.

This year if trends continue, it is going to sell 11.3mil.
Next year will be sub 10mil. Probably sub 9mil if the next playstation is announced at e3.
Years after that sales will be minimum as by then all new consoles will have taken off.

It could eventually reach 90mil after a few years at bargin bin prices in third world countries. I'm going by sold estimates as shipments are just sold numbers slightly ahead of time.

uh yeah, I thought you were predicting the ps3 would sell 115 million... your tables add up to 92.6 million...

44.9 + 35.2 +12.5 =92.6...

tagged for later reading.