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The playstation 3 is down 20% YOY(Black Friday can't make up for the rest of the year). Rumors all seem to be pointing towards a 2013 release of the next playstation or at latest 2014.

The ps3 won't just drop like a rock, but sony will obviously not be able to support the playstation 3 as much once the next playstation comes out. But its insane to believe the playstation 3 will only drop 7% next year considering how much it dropped this year and how the next wave of new consoles are just coming out.

This year if trends continue, it is going to sell 11.3mil.
Next year will be sub 10mil. Probably sub 9mil if the next playstation is announced at e3.
Years after that sales will be minimum as by then all new consoles will have taken off.

It could eventually reach 90mil after a few years at bargin bin prices in third world countries. I'm going by sold estimates as shipments are just sold numbers slightly ahead of time.