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Forums - Sales Discussion - I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

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ethomaz on 03 December 2012

Hi guys.

That's my second big prediction in VGChartz using the the same model of the most famous and accurate pretictor in this forum... thanks @BHR-3. Again I hope to have the same "luck" lol.

So what is my prediction?

Sony will ship 115 million units of PS3 and became the top seller console this gen when it stopped to sell (or near that).

Many factors should help this number happen like: PS3 price cuts ($199, $149 and $99), bundles and deals, big games, etc... it's probable and I think that will happen.

For reference I'll make a table for each region using the yearly numbers and fits it with my prediction numbers.

1. WORLDWIDE BY FISCAL YEAR (SHIPPED DATA)

PS3 SHIPPED DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE (FISCAL YEAR)
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SHIPPED  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
FY2006  -  - 3.5m 3.5m -
FY2007   - - 9.1m 12.6m -
FY2008 -  - 10.1m 22.7m -
FY2009 - - 13.0m 35.7m -
FY2010 - - 14.3m 50.0m -
FY2011 - - 13.9m 63.9m -
FY2012 13.1m
 77.0m  * 4th Nov * 8.0m  * 4th Nov * 70.0m -  
FY2013 11.9m
 88.9m
* 2nd Nov * 80.0m -  
FY2014 9.8m
 98.7m      
FY2015 7.1m
 105.8m
 

FY2016 4.7m 110.5m        
FY2017+ 4.5m 115.0m        

 

2. WORLDWIDE BY YEAR (SHIPPED DATA)

PS3 SHIPPED DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE (YEAR)
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SHIPPED  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2006  -  - 1.7m 1.7m -
2007   - - 8.7m 10.4m -
2008 -  - 10.7m 21.1m -
2009 - - 12.4m 33.5m -
2010 - - 14.4m 47.9m -
2011 - - 14.1m 62.0m -
2012 13.2m
 75.2m  * 4th Nov * 8.0m  * 4th Nov * 70.0m -  
2013 12.3m
 87.5m
* 2nd Nov * 80.0m    
2014 10.1m
 97.6m      
2015 7.4m
 105.0m
 

2016 5.3m 110.3m        
2017+ 4.7m 115.0m        


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ethomaz on 03 December 2012

2. US (VGC DATA)

PS3 VGC DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SOLD  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2006  -  - 667,762 667,762 -
2007   - - 2,450,089 3,117,851 -
2008 -  - 3,477,812 6,595,663 -
2009 - - 4,172,494 10,768,157 -
2010 - - 4,737,437 15,682,946 -
2011 - - 4,486,935 20,169,881 -
2012 4,000,000
 24,300,000 3,480,788 23,650,669 -649,301  
2013 3,100,000
 27,400,000 * 6th Jul * 1,001,312 * 6th Jul * 24,651,981
 
2014 2,200,000
 29,600,000      
2015 1,400,000
 31,000,000
 

2016 900,000 31,900,000        
2017+ 700,00 32,600,000        


ethomaz on 03 December 2012

3. EUROPE (VGC DATA)

PS3 VGC DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SOLD  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2007   - - 3,418,547 3,418,547 -
2008 -  - 4,171,686 7,590,233 -
2009 - - 4,801,065 12,391,298 -
2010 - - 5,317,220 17,708,518 -
2011 - - 6,259,187 23,967,705 -
2012 5,100,000
 28,600,000 5,426,216 29,393,921 +793,921  
2013 4,700,000
 33,300,000 * 6th Jul * 1,867,080 * 6th Jul * 31,261,001    
2014 4,200,000
 37,500,000      
2015 3,500,000
 41,000,000
 

2016 2,300,000 43,300,000        
2017+ 1,600,000 44,900,000        


ethomaz on 03 December 2012

4. JAPAN (VGC DATA)

PS3 VGC DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SOLD  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2006  -  - 472,605 472,605 -
2007   - - 1,218,612 1,691,217 -
2008 -  - 1,065,808 2,757,025 -
2009 - - 1,829,784 4,586,809 -
2010 - - 1,553,638 6,140,447 -
2011 - - 1,521,847 7,662,294 -
2012 1,300,000
 9,000,000 1,233,261 8,895,555 -104,445  
2013 1,200,000
 10,200,000 * 6th Jul * 480,083 * 6th Jul * 9,375,638    
2014 1,000,000
 11,200,000      
2015 600,000
 11,800,000
 

2016 400,000 12,200,000        
2017+ 300,000 12,500,000        


gergroy on 03 December 2012

I dont see it happening as sales will continue to decline and once ps4 comes out sales will drop off exponentially. However, good luck in your prediction.



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Max King of the Wild on 03 December 2012

I think it will scrape past 95mil



SOLIDSNAKE08 on 03 December 2012

115m seems out of reach. i think ps3 can top out at 105m though beating the original playstation.



Jay520 on 03 December 2012

This is ridiculous. It won't come close to 115m.

It's currently at 70m after 6 years selling at an average pace of ~11.4m consoles per year.

It needs to ship another 45m to reach 115m. At best, the PS3 will have another 4 years of life (and that's being extremely optimistic).

In order for it to sell 45m within 4 years, it would have to average ~11.3m consoles per year.

Considering it'll only sell 11-12m this year and even less next year, there's no way it'll average over 11m for the next 4 years. It's final 4 years aren't going to match its first 6 years.

And that's assuming it'll be on sale for the next 4 years. It may be discontinued. And if its not, it will only sell tiny amounts (4-5m per year) during 2014-2016 until it finally dies.

You should have just predicted 100m. It's an excellent milestone and is actually possible.



bananaking21 on 03 December 2012

what i really think will help PS3 sell after PS4 launches is PSN, there is no reason why indie developers would stop supporting PSN and making games for it. PS3 in a couple of years could be bought for 99$ and used to play indie games that cost about 5/10 bucks each. i think this will help move consoles after PS4 is launched and sony drops support. as for your prediction, i dont think so, maybe but i would say 95~105 million life time



Salnax on 03 December 2012

In order for that to be true, Sony would have to delay the PS4 a lot. I'm not sure that's a good idea.



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