i'd be surprised if Wii U surpasses PS1...

I have already predicted that Wii U might sell 120m units, but I'm not counting on it nor do I believe that'll be what it end up selling.

Wii U might win next gen, but probably not because of anything listed in the OP... Being first out could indeed help it, but will probably not be the reason why it might win.

The 2 biggest reason to why it might win is: Price and graphics. It will probably be the cheapest console and might display similar graphics as PS720 (I believe this gen will have quite similar visuals).

I don't think we will ever see "a PS2" again.

Dreamcast stands today as having the best linup of launch titles in the history of gaming. It continued to release stellar games throughout it's short lifetime. Even when the PS2 released and didn't have anything worth playing for a whole year, the Dreamcast had the better games. But Dreamcast lost, Sega exited the console market and the PS2 went on to be the most successfull console of all time. The Dreamcast was inventive, powerfull, full of great games and ahead of it's time. None of that helped Sega.

1) Being first to the market has never cemented victory in any home console generation. However, it is still beneficial if done right with a lot of good content. There is always the risk of being ignored later though.

2) Its Nintendo, publishers will be skeptical and outright bullish on Nintendo. Why? because Nintendo is the only hardware where its first party can and will greatly out shine anything a 3rd party creates. Basically, 3rd parties see Nintendo not only as a valid userbase, but also one of the primary software competitors. The only way for them to overcome this is to ensure the cost of putting the game on the consoles is very, very small so they know that even if they don't sell at the same levels as other consoles, they will still be highly profitable. This is Nintendo's approach with WiiU as it has been made to be very easily ported to.

3) The launch line up is fantastic, however, to whom? Any Nintendo IP fan should be very happy with what is offered. Gamers who simply don't care for Nintendo IPs, however, don't have anything new or unique in this line-up. The only hint at that is Bayonetta2 or Monster Hunter. But none of that comes out until next year. Nintendo needs to get a few good exclusives from now until the rest of next-gen comes out as well as get the exact same 3rd party games the rest of next gen will get. If either of those fail, then upgraders will spend the likely extra $100 to buy a neXtBox/PS4 over a WiiU.

4) This really ties into #3 and the content available. Nintendo won't ever get everyone. Some people simply hate Nintendo. But they are a minority and those who have indifference to Nintendo IPs might jump on if the same content in games is there plus the added benefits the controller/miiverse/etc might add. But at this time, you cannot say this will happen. 2013 will be a big thing for Nintendo and either gaining or losing that potential crowd of upgraders.

5) This part is directly related to the cost it takes to put the game on WiiU. These publishers will go into this gen with the shared sentiment that ALL AAA games will be on neXtBox/PS4. The question is if its easily and cheaply capable to put the SAME game on WiiU. If it is, and there are other potential benefits with the gamepad or miiverse, etc, then the middle crowd that isn't fanboyish on a console will get WiiU and publishers may warm up to the system. If that fails, we may very likely be in the same boat as this gen as WiiU gets not real engine support and thus gets last-gen ported games only.

Summary

You did not make a good case. I'm a Nintendo die hard and yet I can see the inherent risk at repeating Wii's "failure" with 3rd parties. I am very certain the power differences wont' be the scapegoat this time around, but that doesn't mean publishers will support it. Nintendo still has a lot going against it from the mindsets of publishers as well as the more "core" gaming crowd.

The only way to combat this is going to be robust content. Nintendo needs to do whatever it can to not only put out its amazing IPs, but also support the 3rd party publishers in getting high quality engines and make it very easy for them to put content on the device. Lowering their costs will make the ROI greater and that will get the content there. Hell, maybe Nintendo should pay to have engines like UE4 altered to ensure it can be used on WiiU.

The Wii U needs to capture it's Wii audience along with steal some gamers from Sony and MS... I don't think that's going to happen. I think there will be a decline in sales next generation (Unless new markets make up the difference). So I can see 200 million sales divided between the 3 instead of 240 million.

I agree.

The reason behind PS2's unprecedented success was that its main competitor, the Dreamcast, forfeited from the beginning leaving the PS2 essentially alone with very little competition for the whole generation.

Gamecube did very little to appeal to a wide audience and the Xbox was an unheard of brand, completely localized in the US.

The only way to ever see a PS2 again is for some company to fall.

Bayonetta 2 and Monster Hunter ... and ZombiU and Rayman Legends and Dragon Quest. Even Scribblenauts and Nano Assault Neo and the superior versions of Ninja Gaiden or Black Ops 2 (or some of the next years games like Aliens:Colonial Marines) will make some gamer buy the Wii U.

And there are no gamers "who simply don't care about Nintendo IPs" unless they are blindfolded fanboys, because there is a wide variety of Nintendo IPs. Nintendo produced games like Mario Kart and Mario Bros/Galaxy, Kirby, Donkey Kong, Pikmin, Smash Bros. but other games too like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Metroid Prime 3, Project Zero 2 Wii, Sin&Punishment etc.

I think the Wii U will be the most successful console in the next generation. Microsoft will be second. Sony and the PS4 will not play not a significant role.

Yep, the wiiu will slow quickly, nintendo will be back to Gamecube territory with wii-u.

And this is what will likely happen. I would be suprised (as all analysts) if Sony survive the next two years.

http://www.dw.de/sonys-woes-compounded-after-ratings-downgrade/a-16259017-1

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Sony-to-Baa3-outlook-negative--PR_259577