| CCFanboy said:
1. First to market2. "I'm skeptical" you said that 7 years ago3. Launch lineup4. Acceptance
5. What do we really know about the others?A lot of word of mouth is going around. Word on the street is many developers ign spoke to are more excited about the xbox and playstation. Where does this sound familiar? Expanding on the point I made at 2, they can be as excited as they want to. It won't matter if nobody buys it. Put all these big plans in place. Throw all the support under the sun. But did any of the developers behind this consider microsoft or sony could make mistakes? Developers and publishers are known for backing the 'cool kid' on the street. Then what happens if they are proven wrong? Look at vita as an example. Psp wasn't seeing as many localizations as we would have liked towards the end. And trust me, there were a lot. Now following that and the poor start ps3 had, it would appear the confidence in sony in this industry is fading. Vita has the worst third party support of any playstation system at this time. Is it any wonder 3ds is kicking the stuffing out of it? It would seem sony isn't as immune to losing third party support as some would believe. Last year it was all but confirmed that metal gear rising would be joining vita for the party. This year it seems they've suddenly run in to some 'power' issues with the hardware. Sounds exactly like resident evil 5 on wii. So who is on board with these? How much support do they intend to give? There are people saying because power is the problem wii u will instantly lose all forms of third party support once the others get here but that assumption is highly flawed. What it sounds like the doubters are saying is, in a nutshell, every single game will stop development on ps3 and 360 by 2014 and move to the others instead. There are still plenty of games still in development for ps3 and 360 and any one of those could get on wii u as well. Not only that but, like with any system, the next xbox and ps4 will not see the true 'must haves' on launch day. It never happens. The first party launch titles are usually rushed with features cut to make it day 1. Perfect dark zero was nothing compared to gears of war. These systems will see the same types of ports that wii u is seeing now. Nothing really standing out. Wii u however will have had time to build an install base and a much better looking game library. And that is why I think it won't play out like last time. When it all comes to pass I think nintendo's position in the japanese market will be enough to see we get more to play then we got on wii anyway. The only problem is we will be waiting for the eventual localizations. That could take some time. We can't be sure who is on board or how long they will stick around. But more will stick around then those who did with wii. Its possible that microsoft and sony following nintendo's motion sensing lead has helped contribute to companies like bioware and gearbox backing the system. Bioware said the same thing I did about 3ds. |
1) Being first to the market has never cemented victory in any home console generation. However, it is still beneficial if done right with a lot of good content. There is always the risk of being ignored later though.
2) Its Nintendo, publishers will be skeptical and outright bullish on Nintendo. Why? because Nintendo is the only hardware where its first party can and will greatly out shine anything a 3rd party creates. Basically, 3rd parties see Nintendo not only as a valid userbase, but also one of the primary software competitors. The only way for them to overcome this is to ensure the cost of putting the game on the consoles is very, very small so they know that even if they don't sell at the same levels as other consoles, they will still be highly profitable. This is Nintendo's approach with WiiU as it has been made to be very easily ported to.
3) The launch line up is fantastic, however, to whom? Any Nintendo IP fan should be very happy with what is offered. Gamers who simply don't care for Nintendo IPs, however, don't have anything new or unique in this line-up. The only hint at that is Bayonetta2 or Monster Hunter. But none of that comes out until next year. Nintendo needs to get a few good exclusives from now until the rest of next-gen comes out as well as get the exact same 3rd party games the rest of next gen will get. If either of those fail, then upgraders will spend the likely extra $100 to buy a neXtBox/PS4 over a WiiU.
4) This really ties into #3 and the content available. Nintendo won't ever get everyone. Some people simply hate Nintendo. But they are a minority and those who have indifference to Nintendo IPs might jump on if the same content in games is there plus the added benefits the controller/miiverse/etc might add. But at this time, you cannot say this will happen. 2013 will be a big thing for Nintendo and either gaining or losing that potential crowd of upgraders.
5) This part is directly related to the cost it takes to put the game on WiiU. These publishers will go into this gen with the shared sentiment that ALL AAA games will be on neXtBox/PS4. The question is if its easily and cheaply capable to put the SAME game on WiiU. If it is, and there are other potential benefits with the gamepad or miiverse, etc, then the middle crowd that isn't fanboyish on a console will get WiiU and publishers may warm up to the system. If that fails, we may very likely be in the same boat as this gen as WiiU gets not real engine support and thus gets last-gen ported games only.
Summary
You did not make a good case. I'm a Nintendo die hard and yet I can see the inherent risk at repeating Wii's "failure" with 3rd parties. I am very certain the power differences wont' be the scapegoat this time around, but that doesn't mean publishers will support it. Nintendo still has a lot going against it from the mindsets of publishers as well as the more "core" gaming crowd.
The only way to combat this is going to be robust content. Nintendo needs to do whatever it can to not only put out its amazing IPs, but also support the 3rd party publishers in getting high quality engines and make it very easy for them to put content on the device. Lowering their costs will make the ROI greater and that will get the content there. Hell, maybe Nintendo should pay to have engines like UE4 altered to ensure it can be used on WiiU.
