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Forums - Sony - Sony falls to a new 30 YEAR low. Markets just dont believe them.

kowenicki said:
closed 13.90 yesterday in US

thats 40% of the company value gone since the Kaz speech

market cap has now fallen below $14bn

the cost of Sony servicing its debt has doubled in the last few weeks as fears of ability to repay grow.


How much debt is Sony carrying? I remember it being quite a bit. 

At least Sony can look at the bright side -- they have so much outstanding debt that it probably would deter anyone from making a serious offer on them. Sure the stock may be cheap but any company buying them would then be stuck with their huge debt tab. 



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I think the stock can go as far down as 12$
Then might be the time to buy as something drastic might happen, like a buyout.



I looked it up and Sony apparently has $13 billion in debt. That was before the last fiscal year end, so it's probably up to $16+ billion now.



@Justinian

The decline in the stock price reflects a decrease in the valuation of the assets that Sony possesses. The market will determine what a asset is worth based upon how much it would sell for in the existing market. Right now given the fact that Sony cannot make a profit on many of these assets it is a logical deduction that nobody else could either. So the demand for these assets would be low on the open market.

Assets do not have set values. Only what others are willing to pay for them. Most of the value in these assets are in as is condition. There may be potential in them for a buyer, but not necessarily in the as is condition. A factory that makes televisions may not be able to be sold as is. Maybe only the building will have real value to buyers, and the machinery may need to be sold as scrap, or at a fraction of its cost. A intellectual library may only be valuable enough when it comes to a few songs, movies, or licenses. While the rest may be viewed as worthless.

Obviously when a asset makes money then it is good as is, but Sony doesn't have a lot of those. Investors really aren't believing in what Sony is selling. They don't believe that the majority of these assets can be used to actually make money, and as a consequence aren't worth much money. The investors are probably right. Sony had more then enough time to demonstrate that it could make a number of assets profitable.

That all said this isn't actually the big problem. The resale value of assets directly I mean. Sony has enough actual liquid assets in the form of cash to cover operating losses for some time. The real problem is that Sony leverages their assets when negotiating interest rates with lenders to finance investment, and the day to day cost of actually doing business. When the market devalues the company, and by extension the assets of that company. It makes the company look like a riskier proposition for lending.

So Sony which is used to getting preferential interest rates from lenders. Will probably have to pay higher interest rates on their loans. Which is going to hurt the bottom line even more. Sony could dip into its own liquid assets, but that may hurt the stock further, and those liquid assets are part of what Sony would use to negotiate loans in the future. So in a very real sense the stock dropping in price is going to hurt the bottom line at Sony. Probably forcing the company to scale back on future investments.

As far as this forum is concerned this could lead to the PS4 being a weaker platform, because Sony will not be in a position to invest as much in its development and manufacture. Remember Sony had taken out loans, and sold assets equaling up to about two billion dollars prior to the launch of the PS3. Higher interest rates, and the lower value of the company as a whole. Will probably see a substantially smaller upfront investment.



So someone said in this forum that samsung mentioned that tvs werent as profitable anmore and might scale back.. Does this mean that theyve driven prices so low in undercutting that its not even worth making tvs? So basically sone got screwed by an lg samsung price war that is cannibalizing its own market?

Also about the 13 billion cap.
What i dont understand is, sce division is probably extremely profitable as is sony pictures and music. If a company were to buy sony out as a whole wouldnt they make their investment back in like 2-3 years?
What kind of asset value are we talking in reference to stock?



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Like people consider an investment worth it if you break even in a few years and very valuable. If you can profit in one year.
Sure sony cant break even in 2-3 years but if someone bought out the company and kept those three components wouldnt it be considered a very valve able investment?



@theprof00

The answer to your query is legalities, liabilities, and responsibilities. When a mega corporation like Sony goes on the block governments crawl out of the woodwork. I think the government of Japan would probably indefinitely block any sale of Sony, and even if they let that go through. They would probably have stipulations to prevent what you suggest from happening.



kowenicki said:
bouncing back a little today... perhaps it bottomed out now?

or perhaps people are looking at what Toshiba is doing and think Sony will follow suit.

or perhaps its just taking a breather.

I expect this is just a bounce up before another drop. With the trading volume done yesterday, it's showing that it should go lower.



So, if Sony tanked, how do you guys think next gen would be like without Sony?

Where would their traditional exclusives go, Nintendo, Microsoft, PC?



I LOVE ICELAND!

Hopefully they can manage something that keeps the stocks from falling even further. It ends up in a very vicious circle when stockholders and investors start panicking and fleeing like rats on a sinking ship.

I think what makes me most edgy about this is the fact that all Sony needs is just one thing. Just one. That particular item could be just about anything, but all it needs to be is a hint of positive news that makes people say, "Oh, hm, that's interesting. Tell me more." When someone has an illness, they have surgery. When they're bleeding out (similar to the current situation), it becomes triage. I know that people don't seem to believe Kaz when he starts talking about making grim choices and rebooting things to make them profitable again, but...they have a lot of assets. A LOT of them. They don't have one single impressive item in R&D or somewhere else they could show off that makes people want to stick around and see what happens? That's all it would take right now. A glimmer of hope to folks who think that Sony isn't going to offer them any decent returns in the near future. That should be enough to stop a complete free fall into, "Oh my god, we're so screwed," territory, I'd wager.

To me, that lack of that shred of positive news being bandied about feels slightly more grim than stock drops and words of belt tightening.